The Left Democratic Front (LDF) has a clear edge in the upcoming Assembly elections with the Manorama News-VMR pre-poll survey predicting 63 of the 115 seats in the 12 districts surveyed so far. The United Democratic Front (UDF) gets 50, while the NDA and an independent candidate bags one each.
The NDA is likely to win Manjeshwaram where it has fielded BJP state president K Surendran.
In the third of the four-part series survey results, the LDF is making significant gains in Pathanamthitta, Kottayam and Ernakulam, though it faces a stiff contest from the UDF in Alappuzha.
LDF is expected to win 22 seats followed by UDF in 14, across the four districts.
Out of the 14 assembly constituencies in Ernakulam, the UDF has an edge in 8 and LDF in 6.
LDF is likely to bag 5 out of 9 constituencies in Alappuzha. UDF would be able to secure 4 constituencies. In Kottayam, LDF is likely to win 6 out of the 9 constituencies, while the UDF may win 2 and one could be won by the independent PC George.
A neck and neck battle is expected in Perumbavoor, Angamaly, Paravoor, Pala, Ernakulam, Kunnathunadu, Kottayam, Poonjar, Alappuzha, Kuttanad, Adoor constituencies.
On a question on how government performed in the last five years, 52% people said they are happy with the government's work whereas only 33% people are happy with the Opposition.
The survey points out that Jose K Mani's shift to LDF will affect UDF's chances in Kottayam. According to the survey, 47% people said the LDF has done better in ensuring social welfare and social security.
The survey conducted between February 15, 2021 and March 15, 2021 analysed 27,000 samples.
Key takeaways from the survey:
1. Ernakulam
• Out of the 14 assembly constituencies in Ernakulam, the UDF has the edge in 8 and LDF in 6
Vote share predictions:
UDF- 43.42%
LDF- 42.01%
NDA 11.59%
OTH- 2.97%
• In Perumbavoor constituency, the survey predicted 44.4% for the UDF and 40.50% for the LDF. Only 12.60% for the NDA. Twenty-20 is an important factor in Perumbavoor in this year's election.
• In Angamaly, the UDF gets 46.10% votes compared to 40.9%.
• Aluva continues to remain a UDF bastion.
• LDF to wrest the seat from UDF in Kalamassery. VK Ibrahim Kunju's controversy will definitely affect this election and will pave way for the victory of P Rajeev. Left front is holding 90% of traditional voters while 27% of traditional voters are moving away from UDF in Kalamassery.
• A close contest is predicted in Paravur where UDF might get a slight majority of 3.5 per cent.
• LDF to retain Vypeen and Unnikrishnan would secure a win.
• Tight contest likely in Kochi with 45.2 per cent favouring the UDF while 44.53 per cent backed the LDF.
• LDF has an edge in Tripunithara. UDF candidate K Babu had been the MLA for 25 years here before Swaraj wrested it from him after the bar bribery scam allegations. However, the survey was conducted before former MLA K Babu's candidature was announced by the Congress.
• Only 4.3 per cent majority expected for UDF in Ernakulam. The fight will be tough for UDF this time, predicts the survey.
• LDF to wrest Thrikkakara from UDF. In Thrikakkara, NDA is not retaining its votes and that is going in a large way to the left front. Left front is getting a bump-up.
• Tough fight expected in Kunnathunadu. Twenty-20's presence will be a big factor in this election. UDF to have a clean victory in Piravom.
• Though a UDF bastion, Muvattupuzha is currently with LDF. Survey predicts LDF victory this election as well.
• LDF to retain the seat in Kothamangalam.
2. Alappuzha
LDF is likely to bag 5 out of 9 constituencies in Alappuzha. UDF would be able to secure 4 constituencies.
Vote share predictions:
LDF- 42.2
UDF- 39.07
NDA- 16.45
OTH- 1.28
• LDF to have a clean victory in Aroor. The fight in Aroor constituency is a matter of pride for CPM as the party has to reclaim the constituency.
• UDF to reclaim Cherthala.
• Thomas Isaac's absence might help UDF to claim Alappuzha. UDF will have a vote share of 45.5% and LDF to have 42.34%.
• LDF to retain in Ambalapuzha. It is a constituency where VS Achuthanandan has won and lost earlier. At the same time NDA's vote share will increase this time.
• A tough fight expected in Kuttanad where the survey shows UDF to have 39.1% votes while LDF have 37.3%.
• A comfortable win for the UDF is predicted in Opposition leader Ramesh Chennithala's constituency- Haripad.
• LDF to retain Kayamkulam. U Prathiba's presence among women as well as her work in the constituency has been appreciated widely. Youngest candidate of UDF Aritha Babu is UDF's candidate.
• LDF to lead in Chengannur followed by UDF. This is also a place where around 28 per cent vote share will be for NDA.
3. Kottayam
• LDF to jump from 2 to 6 seats and UDF to win only 2 seats in Kottayam. A seat could be won by the independent candidate PC George too.
Vote share predictions:
LDF- 44.64%
UDF- 32.17%
NDA- 17.7%
OTH- 5.48%
• A very close fight is expected in Pala between Jose K Mani and Mani C Kappan. LDF is leading with a projected vote share of 44.1 per cent followed by UDF with 43.53 per cent.
• LDF to lead in Kaduthuruthy. Stephen George has won and lost against Mons Joseph in Kaduthuruthy. The constituency will witness a similar fight.
• Vaikom to favour LDF again.
• LDF to retain in Ettumanoor. VN Vasavan has a good chance to win this constituency.
• Kottayam to witness a tight fight, UDF is leading with 42.4% vote share followed by LDF with 36.7 per cent. With K Anil Kumar's presence in Kottayam, the fight will be tough for Thiruvanchoor Radhakrishnan.
• A comfortable win is predicted for LDF in Changanassery. More than 20 per cent vote share is predicted for NDA in Changanassery.
• LDF to retain Kanjirapally.
• A slight edge of 3.5 per cent vote share for PC George in Poonjar.
4. Pathanamthitta
• All five constituencies in Pathanamthitta to favour LDF.
Vote share predictions:
LDF- 45.81%
UDF- 33.43%
NDA- 20.57%
OTH- 0.19%
• LDF to retain Thiruvalla. LDF's Mathew T Thomas is contesting for the fourth time.
• LDF is also likely to retain Aranmulla and Ranni constituencies. Aranmula is one of the A plus seat for BJP.
• LDF leads in Konni followed by UDF. KU Jenish Kumar, Robin Peter and K Surendran are equally strong and therefore makes this constituency a popular one where tough fight is expected.
• With 43.2 per cent projected vote share LDF leads in Adoor, followed by UDF with 38.7 per cent. Therefore a close fight is expected in this constituency.
LDF has the edge in north Kerala
The first part of the survey on Sunday predicted that the ruling Left Democratic Front (LDF) is likely to win 27 out of the 32 constituencies in Kasaragod, Kannur, Wayanad and Kozhikode districts.
The survey predicted victory for the CPM-led LDF in all constituencies in Kozhikode and Wayanad districts. Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF) is set to lose many of its sitting seats, the survey claimed.
On the other hand, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) is likely to win the Manjeshwaram Assembly constituency in Kasaragod district, where its state chief K Surendran is contesting.
However, the survey predicts a tight contest in four constituencies – Thrikkaripur in Kasaragod, Irikkur in Kannur, Kozhikode North and Koduvally seats in Kozhikode district.
UDF sweep in Malappuram, Idukki
The second part of the series gave the UDF a clear edge by predicting a victory in 32 out of the 46 seats in Malappuram, Palakkad, Thrissur and Idukki districts.
The ruling Left Democratic Front (LDF) is likely to win 14 seats. Despite fielding popular candidates, the National Democratic Front (NDA) will be unable to distress the leading fronts in these districts.
The survey predicted that out of the sixteen assembly constituencies in Malappuram, the UDF had the edge in fifteen. Minister KT Jaleel's Thavanur is the only sure bet for LDF in this district.
The UDF is likely to bag 7 out of the 12 seats in Palakkad districts while LDF would be able to secure only 5. The Palakkad constituency is likely to see a heated three-way contest with just a seven per cent vote share separating the three parties. Despite fielding 'Metroman' E Sreedharan in Palakkad, BJP has come third here in the survey.
In Thrissur, the LDF will lose 4 of their sitting seats but will manage to win 8. The UDF could be able to win 5 constituencies.
The constituencies in the Idukki district are also giving surprising insights with all five of them favouring UDF.
Biggest pre-poll survey
The four-part series of the biggest pre-poll survey in the state – predict probable winners of all the 140 seats in the assembly. The survey also reveals the likely state-level vote share of the fronts and the candidate most suited to be the CM apart from the winner in all constituencies.
The survey was conducted between February 15 and March 15 this year among 27,000 voters from 140 constituencies in the state. The first part was aired on Sunday. It will end on Wednesday.
The VMR co-founder Jai Mrug maintained that the survey was an adventurous task as it had to send its teams across all the constituencies in the time of COVID-19.
Kerala goes to polls on April 6 and counting is on May 2. The ruling Left Democratic Front (LDF) led by the CPM, the Congress-led opposition United Democratic Front (UDF) and the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) are engaged in a multi-cornered contest.
