Nilambur: At a corner meeting near the Nilambur bus stand, Congress leader Priyanka Gandhi Vadra raised a pressing local concern -- the rising incidents of wild animal attacks. "I have been your MP for seven months," she began. Before she could add, "I visited seven homes where a wild animal killed someone," a voice from the crowd cut in: "You should not forget that."

At a UDF rally in Pothukallu, RSP leader Shibu Baby John began attacking the Pinarayi Vijayan-led government over alleged misgovernance and police excesses. But a woman in the back row walked forward and whispered to a leader: "Ask him to speak about Nilambur and what the UDF plans to do. That's what we women want to hear."At Cheethukallu in Pothukallu panchayat, when Konni’s CPM MLA K U Jenish Kumar beat the drums about highway development, a supporter murmured: "No, no, please don’t mention highways." It was a quiet but sharp reminder of the collapsed Kooriyad stretch and the Nilambur bypass -- first notified in 1998 -- that remains unbuilt. The resulting traffic snarls on the Ooty-bound state highway are a daily ordeal, and the frustration shows.

These three incidents captured the agenda of the people. Perhaps why the  LDF's grand narrative of state-wide development didn't quite land. This is a region where people have had to go to court for basics such as toilets, rehabilitation, and compensation. Even as LDF candidate M Swaraj and UDF candidate Aryadan Shoukath pitched the byelection as a referendum on the LDF government, independent candidate P V Anvar made it a protest against Pinarayism -- a term he coined to describe centralised, authoritative governance, dismissive of collective leadership and marked by police highhandedness. But voters brought the contest back to basics: representation, presence, and delivery. That was the plank UDF candidate Aryadan Shoukath stood on, and repeated at every stop.

What the numbers reveal
The UDF has made it clear that it would use the victory in Nilambur as the springboard for the 2026 Assembly election. But despite clear signs of anti-incumbency on the ground, the UDF marginally lost vote share in the byelection -- polling 44.17% of the popular vote, down from 45.34% in 2021. Shoukath's winning margin of 11,077 votes was also slightly less than the 11,504-vote margin by which he lost to Anvar in 2016.

Anvar, running as an independent, secured 19,760 votes (11.31%). Crucially, data show his votes didn’t come from the UDF camp. He ate into nearly 9% of the LDF's vote share, drew about 2% from the SDPI, and around 1% from the UDF.

LDF’s M Swaraj polled 66,660 votes (37.88%).

So, did Anvar help Shoukath win? The combined vote share of Shoukath and Anvar (56%) reflects a strong anti-government sentiment. That makes it clear: Anvar’s votes cannot be added to the LDF's tally to spin an anti-UDF narrative. On the contrary, Anvar's performance shows he didn't leave the LDF alone, as Swaraj had claimed -- he walked away with nearly 20,000 voters. The BJP, which was initially hesitant to contest in Nilambur, fielded Kerala Congress leader Mohan George and focused on Christian voters. The strategy didn’t pay off. The party secured 4.91% of the vote -- a marginal dip from 2021 (4.96%). The results also show there was no religious consolidation in favour of Shoukath. The voting remained largely political.

What mattered, and what didn’t
In 2021, when Prakash lost to Anvar by 2,700 votes, the blame fell on Shoukath -- not the IUML, which stood behind the candidate. This time, the Congress and IUML stood united, plugging any leaks in their vote bank. Sticking together has become a necessity for the two allies, once at loggerheads during Aryadan Muhammed’s four decades at the helm.

In 2016, when Aryadan’s son Shoukath contested his first assembly election, he suffered a crushing defeat -- losing to Anvar by 11,504 votes.

By the 2020 local body polls, the fallout was clear: the IUML, which held nine seats in 2015 and controlled the Nilambur municipal council with the Congress, failed to win a single seat. The CPM capitalised on the UDF’s internal rifts. As one grassroots Muslim League worker, explained why they buried the hatchet. "Taking on Shoukath in Nilambur only weakened both the Congress and the IUML," he said.

The death of 15-year-old Ananthu, who tripped on a poacher’s electrified snare, brought renewed focus on human-wildlife conflict -- a major campaign point for the UDF. IUML chief Sayyid Sadik Ali Shihab Thangal also urged voters to use the byelection to express solidarity with protesting ASHA workers, helping shift the focus to real, ground-level issues.

The LDF's welfare narrative -- bolstered by last-minute disbursal of pensions -- came under attack. The UDF accused the government of using welfare as electoral bribes. The LDF tried to spin it, suggesting the UDF had insulted pensioners by calling them bribe-takers. But the Congress, instead of chickening out, doubled down -- and even Priyanka Gandhi repeated the charge originally made by K C Venugopal.

Post-election, and ahead of the counting, CPM politburo member A Vijayaraghavan tried to pre-emptively blunt the blow, blaming communal alliances for the UDF’s surge. But the LDF will need a stronger explanation -- especially since Swaraj is seen as Pinarayi’s voice and face, and the front has just lost a sitting seat to the UDF, less than a year before the 2026 Assembly polls. As for the UDF, even if a broader anti-government narrative powers its campaign next year, it will still have to fight constituency by constituency, considering it has not been able to better its vote share in Nilambur.