Kasaragod: On November 30, Youth League state vice-president Ashraf Edneer leaned on faith while introducing the IUML’s women candidates in Kasaragod Municipality -- a council the party has dominated for decades. At a campaign event in Thuruthi, he said: “They offer their prayers five times a day. They keep their fasts. When we field a candidate, we take all that into account and hold firmly to Islamic values. In that sense, you are very fortunate to have a young woman like Shahina (Saleem) to serve your ward. I am saying this with a great sense of responsibility.”

Soon, LDF’s Kasaragod Municipality Election Committee secretary T M M Kareem shot off a complaint to the State Election Commission, accusing Ashraf of invoking religion to seek votes. “Portraying rival candidates as opposed to a particular faith and seeking votes on that basis is both undemocratic and unlawful,” he wrote, demanding the disqualification of Shahina Saleem. Shahina is a proven leader who served as president of Chengala grama panchayat from 2015 to 2020 and is now IUML’s chairperson candidate in the Kasaragod municipal election.

Ashraf denied wrongdoing, claiming his speech was “edited to present it as communal”. “My campaigning was not communal, and the League doesn’t indulge in communal politics,” he said.

A municipality split down the middle
In Kasaragod Municipality, IUML scarcely needs to lean on its Muslim identity overtly; it contests almost entirely in Muslim-majority wards. Likewise, the BJP, the second-largest party in the council, restricts itself to Hindu-majority wards and sweeps them with ease. The two parties rarely step into the other’s turf.

Kasaragod may be Kerala’s only visibly segregated urban body, where neighbourhoods, voting booths, and political loyalties all follow community lines.

“In places like Kannur, people may vote for the BJP because of its politics. But in Kasaragod, they vote for the BJP or the Muslim League because of their own identity,” said Prasad Maniyani, convenor of the North Malabar Chamber of Commerce, Kasaragod Chapter.

This identity-driven landscape has squeezed out the CPM and the Congress in the municipality.

How segregation reshaped the map
In 2020, the IUML contested 23 of 39 divisions and won 21. The two losses -- Fish Market and Honnamoola -- were inflicted by IUML rebels. The BJP contested 23 divisions and won 14; 13 of those were its Hindu strongholds, while one (Kadappuram South) was taken from the Congress, pushing the grand old party out of the council altogether. The Congress is expected to take on the BJP but end up with single-digit or low double-digit votes.

The CPM also bled Hindu voters to the BJP. The saffron party grabbed Kadappuram North from the CPM in 2015 and retained it in 2020. Today, the CPM is reduced to one division -- Chennikkara, a red pocket with nearly 85% vote share.

Segregated living and lack of dependence have widened the rift within the UDF: IUML doesn’t need Congress in its wards, and Congress doesn’t need IUML in Kadappuram South.

Delimitation widens the crack
After delimitation, Vidyanagar was split into North and South. The Congress claimed both, as it previously held the combined division. IUML -- the dominant partner in Kasaragod -- conceded only Vidyanagar North (a BJP stronghold) and kept Vidyanagar South for itself.

“During the discussion at the UDF mandalam committee, the same Ashraf Edneer said Vidyanagar South has 450 Hindu votes and 350 Muslim votes, and IUML would sweep with the Muslim votes,” said a Congress leader who was part of the negotiations. “We wanted to give representation to an upper-caste Hindu from our base to stop our erosion to the BJP,” said a Congress leader. But the IUML did not budge.

The dispute escalated to the district-level liaison committee. IUML leaders reportedly questioned why they should part with a seat for a Congress reduced to zero from four seats in 1975. “They forget that the riots of the 1990s polarised the electorate. IUML and BJP are its natural beneficiaries. That is how BJP became the second-largest party here,” the Congress leader said.

Eventually, Congress district president P K Faisal gave up his claim in exchange for a seat in Padna grama panchayat. Since then, the Congress mandalam committee has kept its distance from IUML in the municipality. “We do not attend the UDF conventions or campaign in the ward,” said a Congress leader.

IUML later realised that nearly 100 of the 350 Muslim voters in Vidyanagar South are outside Kasaragod, and is now “relentlessly reaching out” to the Congress to woo Hindu voters, a leader said.

BJP’s Trojan horse plan
In 2020, IUML enjoyed a two-thirds majority in nine of the 23 Muslim-majority divisions it contested. In Pachakkad and Thalangara Deenar Nagar, it touched 95% vote share. It is comfortable in six more wards with around 50% or higher vote share.

But the remaining six are shaky, with INL, SDPI, independents -- and, crucially, four IUML rebels -- posing significant threats. The rebels are in Fish Market (Division No. 22), Honnamoola (24), Thalangara Bangod (25), and Thalangara K K Puram (28). Rebels have been winning Fish Market and Honnamoola since 2015; in 2020, IUML clawed back but lost Fish Market, home to wealthy Muslim League supporters, by one vote.

Shahina Saleem won’t have it easy in Thuruthi division either. In 2020, CPM ally Indian National League (INL) polled 46% 2020, and IUML won by only 73 votes. In Thalangara Padinjar (30), the IUML’s margin was a slender 21 votes; this time, both SDPI and an independent are in the fray.

On paper, IUML’s 21 seats against BJP’s 14 look like a simple four-seat advantage. But the BJP alone cannot bridge that gap because it cannot even access the Muslim-majority divisions. The BJP is not even contesting in 14 divisions.

The saffron party, however, sees the rebels as its Trojan horses -- and has prepared for a long game.

In the newly carved Vidyanagar North division, the BJP fielded an independent, Shakila Naik, despite it being a saffron pocket borough. “She is the silent BJP nominee for the chairperson’s post,” said a BJP insider.

If rebels or independents topple IUML candidates, they will not side with IUML due to strong anti-League sentiment. They will also not openly back a BJP councillor for chairperson. That’s where Shakila Naik comes in. She is a Congress worker, director of a Congress-linked urban cooperative society, and still part of the Congress employees’ organisation. “The rebels will have no problem backing Shakila,” said a BJP leader. “This is our best chance.”

Congress tripped again
This is the second time the BJP has blindsided the Congress during nominations. Earlier, Congress Pensioners Union state general secretary M K Chandrasekharan Nair offered to contest from the Taluk Office (33) division, a BJP fortress. Congress agreed, believing his personal connections could at least give the BJP a run.

At 2.52 pm on November 24 -- eight minutes before the window for nomination withdrawal closed — he sent a six-second message to the leadership. “Chandrasekharan mash here. I have withdrawn my nomination.”

“He was acting to the BJP’s script all along. Only we didn’t know,” said the Congress leader. The withdrawal left the Taluk Office as the only division without a UDF candidate, enraging IUML.

For the BJP, every seat counts. It is banking on rebels to fracture IUML in the Muslim-majority wards. “The anti-League sentiment among Muslim voters is strong, not just in the municipality but also in Kumbla. We saw it in 2020; it is sharper in 2025,” said BJP North Zone president K Shreekanth.

It is against this backdrop that Ashraf Edneer’s words must be read, the Congress leader said. “The IUML is losing ground among its own supporters mostly because of anti-incumbency, and rebels who win will drift to the BJP. That is why he made that appeal.”