Thiruvananthapuram city corporation recorded the lowest voter turnout (58.29%) in 15 years in the civic body elections held on Tuesday. An increasingly disinterested lot of voters in Kerala's capital city has forced fronts to re-do the math, a day after the poll.

The city's polling percentage has been between 60-63% since 2010. Even in 2020, when elections were held under strict Covid regulations, the voter turnout was 60%. The abysmally low turnouts (well below 45%) in some of the wards on Tuesday could have potential impact on all the parties.

BJP's vote share swelled from 11.06% to 30.46% between 2010 and 2020. In the same period, LDF's vote share dropped from 40.41% to 35%. UDF has recorded the most staggering dip -- from 36.47% to 21%.

BJP's campaign rode on what it termed as 'positive politics' and 'politics of development'. Towards the end of the campaign, it unleashed a barrage of corruption allegations against the LDF-led ruling council.

Banking on the development agenda, the BJP hoped for an exponential increase in vote share. The party leaders knew that if it were to offset both the Congress and the CPM to secure a substantial majority,  the vote share needed to go well above 45%. A resurgent UDF, with its early announcement of candidates and placing former Aruvikkara MLA Sabarinathan for the Mayor post, may have spoiled the BJP's plans.

In 2020, BJP had polled 1.47 lakh votes in city wards. This helped the party make up for the deficit in coastal wards. It also dug into the UDF vote share in wards like Thirumala, PTP Nagar, Nedumcadu and Chellamangalam. For instance, in Thirumala, UDF polled 594 votes in 2020 against 1081 in 2015. In PTP Nagar, UDF votes were reduced from 1132 to 659. It all worked to BJP's advantage.

Another BJP strategy in 2020 was to field the party's trusted vote pullers to neutralise the effect of LDF veterans. LDF's mayoral candidates, former Mayor, former Deputy Mayor, senior party leaders were trounced in 2020. BJP went for the same ploy this year as well by rearranging same set of candidates in different wards and letting in new faces in places where they have made a mark.

There were a few setbacks this time, though. The deaths of BJP councillor Anilkumar and RSS worker Anand Thampi have created a rift among the members. There were also murmurs of dissent over RSS being given an upper hand in candidate selection.

BJP sources said that Congress could bounce back strongly and if Nemom Assembly poll pattern repeats, BJP will lose some seats. In 2016, O Rajagopal won Nemom seat polling 67,813 votes. BJP could not repeat the feat in 2021. CPM's V Sivankutty retrieved the seat. The difference was Congress candidate K Muraleedharan. He polled 36524 votes. BJP's numbers dropped from over 65,000 to 51888. This meant that even when Sivankutty's votes slid from 59142 to 55837, he still won the election.

BJP insiders said that Nemom effect could repeat in the civic body. If that happens, BJP may not be able to hold on to its seats under Kazhakootam, Nemom and Vattiyoorkavu Assembly constituencies. BJP draws its strength mostly from Nemom and Vattiyoorkavu constituencies, where it has 14 and 9 seats respectively. With Congress giving a strong fight under Sabarinathan, these numbers may come down. This will be beneficial for the LDF.

A senior campaign manager with the CPM was realistic. "We may win what is needed to run the corporation. CPM and Congress put up a good fight in around 17 coastal wards. BJP hardly made any impact. When it comes to other wards, it was a  three-cornered fight. Even with a low voter turnout, we are certain that our party votes have been cast," a party leader said. The party deployed candidates with grassroots experience to counter BJP's strategy of fielding familiar faces who amass votes. The leaders, however, admitted that the Sabarimala issue may have an impact on party followers who are religious.

As for the Congress, candidates were chosen under K Muraleedharan and recommendations came from ward level committees six months prior to the election notification. "We had that early advantage. The groundwork was done well in advance," a Congress member said. If it pays off, Congress could attain somewhere around 23 seats, making things difficult for the BJP.

BJP state secretary S Suresh, however, said that the party is confident of bagging over 50 seats. "Our votes have not leaked. Also there was hesitancy on the part of Congress in casting votes in some wards. This would help us. Except for five wards, our fight was directly with the CPM," said Suresh.