The target Union Home Minister Amit Shah set for the BJP in July this year was 25 per cent of the total votes polled in the local body elections. Shah's optimism was fired by the 19.40 per cent the NDA had pocketed for itself in Kerala in the 2024 Lok Sabha polls.

As it turned out, the National Democratic Alliance (BJP + Bharath Dharma Jana Sena + Lok Janshakthi Party) managed to secure only 14.71 per cent. The UDF cornered 38.81 per cent and the LDF 33.45 per cent.

In panchayats (district, block and grama panchayats combined), the NDA's vote share is 13.92 per cent, a slight dip from the 14.34 per cent in 2020. In municipalities, it is 14.40 per cent, a marginal increase from the 13.1 per cent in 2020. In corporations, it is 23.58 per cent, up from 19.44 per cent in 2020.

The NDA's average vote share (of all local body wards put together) of 14.71 per cent, too, seems a minimal increase from the 12.92 per cent in 2020. But to call this an increase would be misleading as the BJP had contested nearly 40 per cent more seats than in 2020. 

That year, the BJP had contested in less than 14,000 wards. This time, the party and its allies had contested in 21,065 wards, which is 89.35 per cent of the total 23,576 wards that went to polls on December 9 and 11. The BJP alone had contested in more wards (19,262) than the other main contenders - Congress (17,497) and the CPM (14,802).

In addition to contesting from 7000-plus more wards, the BJP had hoped to achieve the 25 per cent target by winning two corporations, at least 10 municipalities, more than 30 block panchayats and over 300 grama panchayats. 

The BJP ended up as the single largest party in just a fraction of its projected numbers: 26 grama panchayats (Thiruvananthapuram - 6, Kollam - 2, Pathanamthitta - 4, Alappuzha - 5, Kottayam - 3, Thrissur - 1, Palakkad - 2, and Kasaragod - 3), two municipalities (Palakkad and Thrippunithura) and one Corporation (Thiruvananthapuram). 

However, it is only in six grama panchayats that it could secure a clear majority: Mudakkal (Thiruvananthapuram), Pandalam-Thekkekkara (Pathanamthitta), Thiruvilwamala (Thrissur), Akathethara and Pudur (Palakkad) and Madhur (Kasaragod). 

Not even in Thiruvananthapuram Corporation could it secure a simple majority. The NDA won 50 wards in the 101-member Council and this was one short of the simple majority of 51. 

Interestingly, in Thiruvananthapuram Corporation where the BJP had scored considerably better than the LDF in terms of seats and has increased its vote share by over 4 per cent, the LDF has a slightly better vote share than the BJP this time: 34.65 per cent against the NDA's 34.52 per cent.

In 2020, the BJP had a clear majority in two grama panchayats (in Kasaragod's Madhur and Bellur) and two municipalities (Palakkad and Pandalam). It slipped in both the municipalities this time and in one, Pandalam, fell to a humiliating loss. In Kasaragod's Bellur Grama Panchayat, the BJP is two short of majority this time and is at the mercy of independents. 

This time, the NDA won 22.09 per cent (93) of the 421 corporation wards, 10 per cent (324) of the 3240 municipality wards, 0.29 per cent (one) of the 346 district panchayat wards, 2.38 per cent (54) of the 2267 block panchayat wards and 8.35 per cent (1447) of the 17,337 grama panchayat wards. 

This did not reflect any major improvement in the BJP's performance from 2020, except in the case of corporations. In the case of municipalities and district panchayats, there was even a decline. 

Here is the BJP's strike rate in 2020: Corporation - 14.25 per cent (22.09 now); Municipality - 10.40 per cent (10 now); District Panchayat - 0.60 per cent (0.29); Block Panchayat - 1.78 per cent (2.38); grama Panchayat - 7.4 per cent (8.35).

This time, the BJP lost Pandalam Municipality, under which falls Sabarimala, to five years of internal squabbles and misgovernance. In the municipality it had ruled with an absolute majority of 20 seats, the BJP is now third, reduced to nine seats.

In Palakkad, too, the BJP had an absolute majority of 28 seats in 2020. This time, though it is still the single largest party, its tally has fallen to 25, two short of the majority number of 27. 

In 2020, it was the second-largest party in Thiruppunithura Municipality, with 15 seats, after the LDF (21). This time it has emerged the single largest party with 21 seats but way short of the majority figure of 27. Even in 2020, when it was second, the BJP had a bigger vote share (27.54 per cent) than the Congress (24.42 per cent) or the CPM (23.25 per cent).

Nonetheless, in municipalities where it has a significant presence, the BJP has increased its vote share in districts like Ernakulam (from 9.08 to 12.65 per cent), Pathanamthitta (16.18 to 18.02 per cent), Thrissur (19.14 to 21.86 per cent) and Palakkad (18.28 to 23.96 per cent).

The party's bold and radical move in areas where it does not have a decisive influence seems to have worked. In Kottayam and Idukki districts where the BJP had experimented with Christian candidates, its vote share in municipalities have gone up. In Kottayam it swelled to 15.10 from 11.50 per cent. Its share in Idukki increased to 14.88 from 12.53 per cent, closing in on the LDF's 21.63 per cent.

However, its vote share has dipped in municipalities in districts like Thiruvananthapuram (from 24.49 to 23.48 per cent), Alappuzha (from 19.08 to 18.19 per cent), and Kasaragod (from 15.36 to 14.52 per cent.)

In Kollam, where the BJP doubled its Corporation tally from 6 to 12 seats in a 56-member council, its combined vote share in all the four municipalities is stagnant: 15.92 per cent in 2020 and 15.90 now. In the Kollam Corporation, too, the party's vote share is static. 

In corporations, the BJP witnessed a growth in Thiruvananthapuram (from 30.92 to 34.52 per cent), Kochi (from 10.95 to 14.41 per cent) and Kannur (from 11.61 to 14.06 per cent). In the other three corporations, the BJP roughly held on to its 2020 vote share: Kollam (22.02 to 22.61 per cent), Thrissur (18.86 to 18.54 per cent), and Kozhikode (22.29 to 22.43 per cent.)