With counting day set for May 4, the latest exit poll by Today's Chanakya points to a closely fought contest in the 2026 Kerala Assembly elections, with the state likely to tilt towards the UDF after two consecutive terms for the LDF. Trends from other states indicate clearer outcomes, with the BJP projected to secure a comfortable majority in West Bengal and the DMK-led alliance expected to retain power in Tamil Nadu.

In Kerala, the pollster predicts a tight race, with the UDF projected to secure 69 ± 9 seats with a 40% (± 3%) vote share. The LDF is close behind with 64 ± 9 seats and a 38% (± 3%) vote share. The BJP-led alliance is expected to win 7 ± 4 seats with a 20% (± 3%) vote share, while others may remain marginal. The projections suggest a possible return to power for the UDF.

The Manorama News–CVoter exit poll has also predicted a UDF comeback, projecting 82 to 94 seats for the alliance. This would mark a sharp rise from its 2021 tally of 41 seats, when the LDF had secured a dominant 99 seats.

OTHER EXIT POLLS
The predictions made by other exit polls are as follows:

• Axis My India: UDF (78-90) | LDF (49-62) | BJP+ (0-3)
• Peoples Pulse: UDF (75-85) | LDF (55-65) | BJP+ (0-3)
• Vote Vibe: UDF (70-80) | LDF (58-68) | OTH (0-4)
• Peoples Insight: UDF (66-76) | LDF (58-68) | BJP+ (10-14) | OTH (0-1)