September has thus far turned out to be the worst month for Kerala State Electricity Board Limited in 2026. Contrary to Chief Minister V D Satheesan's assurance, the public utility will have no choice but to impose load restrictions this whole month.

The power crisis in Kerala has been precipitated by two major factors: Shocking monsoon season surge in internal demand and the monsoon-induced shortage of power in other parts of the country.

Chief Minister V D Satheesan, during his post-Cabinet briefing on Wednesday, said that efforts were on to find a solution to the crisis by September 15. Soon after, KSEB Chairman M G Rajamanickam said the crisis might last a bit longer. He told reporters after a high-level meeting that the load restrictions would be in place till the end of September.

KSEB's System Operation chief engineer Kavitha C K told Onmanorama that "sufficient supply" of power would reach Kerala from October 1 under short-term open access (STOA) agreements.

Supply shock
Till then, Kerala will suffer erratic bouts of darkness.

Though it is still monsoon season in name, September has taken on peak summer behaviour. Daily temperatures in September have risen 2-3 degree celsius than normal, causing an uncharacteristic September spike in power consumption. Last year at the same time, the maximum demand in Kerala on average was 3600-3700 MW. This September, it crossed 5000 MW.

At this point, supply is nowhere close to demand. On an average, Kerala is short of 900 MW daily this September.

Usually, Kerala receives an assured supply of nearly 65 million units (MU) from central generating stations (CGS), long-term agreements (LTA) and medium-term open access (MTOA) contracts. But from the middle of August this year, the supply from these three assured sources (CGS+LTA+MTOA) has shrunk to just about 50 MU.

Summer advantage
If KSEB had managed with limited power restrictions even at the peak of summer this year, two factors helped. One, adequate supply from the three assured sources. Two, sufficient availability of power in the country.

Take, for instance, April 18 this year, a day that saw consumption soar to 118 MU, the highest ever in Kerala's history. On that day, KSEB had managed to secure 58 MU from the three assured sources. And more than 12 MU each from STOA agreements and daily power markets.

Contrast this with September 5, which witnessed a daily consumption of 95 MU, thus far the highest this month. The supply from the three assured sources was just 53 MU. Power from the open market was 7.7 MU, and from STOA contracts, less than 4 million. This is nearly 20 million units less than what KSEB had managed to draw through its lines on the day the demand was the highest in history.

Except for Sundays, the power use during all other days this September had crossed 90 MU, a level of consumption unheard of during a monsoon season.

'Wet coal' phenomenon
The assured supply has been disrupted by heavy monsoon rains in August. "Generation fell in central generating stations as well as in power plants with which we had long- and medium-term agreements," KSEB's Systems Operations chief engineer Kavitha said. She called it the "wet coal" phenomenon.

The high moisture content in coal caused massive production drops in thermal stations along the east of the country, in Odisha, Chhattisgarh and Jharkhand. In short, central power stations in these states are at the moment not in a position to honour their contractual obligations with KSEB.

Short-term contracts and purchases from the open market could have made up for the losses. But the availability was so poor that there were no bidders for the tender KSEB had floated for the supply of short-term power this September. Power exchanges, too, are not overflowing with power, and scarcity has pushed up prices.

The little that KSEB contracts from 'day ahead' and 'real time' markets is exorbitantly priced. In the four months from April to August, KSEB invested a whopping Rs 1190 crore for power purchases alone. In September, power prices have gone up even higher. All this expenditure together is certain to be heaped upon the consumer in the form of a tariff hike.

Debt recovery
During the peak summer months like April, there were also the gains from 'swap deals' in which KSEB borrowed power from states like Uttar Pradesh, where the demand was relatively low, on the promise that it would be returned when the going was good, which meant the monsoon season.

Now, at the height of monsoon betrayal, is repayment time. Nearly three million units of power drain out of power-starved Kerala daily as part of this debt settlement.

In all this crisis, it is the hydel stations that are being overworked. On an average, 25 million units are milked from KSEB's workhorses daily. The danger is already evident in the depleting reservoirs. The Idukki dam now has water to generate 1384 MU. Last year at the same time, it had enough water to generate 1680 MU.

If falling reservoir levels coincide with a weak northeast monsoon, Kerala's power crisis will deepen.