The UDF is projected to regain its dominance in Kottayam district in the 2026 Kerala Assembly elections, according to the Manorama News–C Voter exit poll, indicating that the LDF may struggle to replicate its 2021 gains driven by the Kerala Congress (M)’s (KCM) alliance shift.

The UDF is projected to win between seven and nine seats in the district, while the LDF is expected to secure up to two seats. The projection marks a reversal from the 2021 Assembly elections, when the LDF won five seats in Kottayam after KCM joined the alliance, limiting the UDF to four seats.

Vote share projections also point to a UDF advantage, with the Congress-led front expected to secure 44 per cent of the votes. The LDF is projected to secure 36 per cent vote share, while the BJP-led NDA could garner 15 per cent. Other candidates are expected to account for around 6 per cent of the votes.

Pala, one of the most closely watched constituencies in the state, is projected to witness a tight contest between KCM chairman Jose K Mani and UDF candidate Mani C Kappan. The exit poll gives Kappan a narrow edge in the constituency, suggesting that Jose K Mani could face defeat. The votes secured by BJP candidate Shone George are expected to play a crucial role in determining the final outcome in Pala.

In Changanassery, sitting KCM MLA Job Maichil is projected to face a tough contest from UDF candidate Vinu Job of Kerala Congress (Joseph). The survey, however, rates Vinu’s chances as safe, indicating a likely victory for the UDF candidate.

Poonjar, another key battleground in the district, is projected to go in favour of UDF candidate Sebastian M J, with the survey rating his chances as safe. A victory for Sebastian would mark a significant setback for both incumbent KCM MLA Sebastian Kulathunkal and former legislator P C George.

The Manorama News–C Voter exit poll survey offers the first comprehensive snapshot of voter sentiment across the state. The survey, conducted between April 9 and 24, covered 28,848 voters. The sample was carefully designed to reflect Kerala’s demographic and socio-economic diversity, improving the reliability of the projections.

The exit poll outlines the overall political trend in Kerala, with detailed district-wise insights across all 14 districts. It also decodes key battlegrounds, tracks vote share patterns, and indicates public preference for the Chief Minister’s post.

As per Section 126A of the Representation of the People Act, 1951, the Election Commission of India had prohibited the conduct and publication of exit polls from 7 am on April 9, 2026, to 6.30 pm on April 29, 2026.