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When Vijay launched Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam, many dismissed it as another celebrity experiment in a state that has seen stars dabble with politics before stepping back or fading out. But the 2026 Tamil Nadu Assembly election trends suggest something more serious is underway.

With TVK racing ahead with leads in multiple constituences and Vijay himself surging in Perambur and Tiruchirapalli East, the actor has moved from curiosity factor to central player. In a state long dominated by the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam and All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam, Vijay’s rise may be the biggest disruption in decades.

The first real post-Dravidian disruption?
Tamil Nadu politics since 1967 has been largely shaped by the Dravidian movement and the two parties that inherited its power structure: DMK and AIADMK. Governments changed, leaders changed, alliances shifted, but the bipolar structure remained intact.

That order weakened after the deaths of J Jayalalithaa and M Karunanidhi. The charisma-driven leadership model they represented left a vacuum.

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Vijay sensed it early. Rather than entering through alliances or a token campaign, he declared TVK would contest all 234 seats and framed the battle as one between TVK and DMK, signalling that he wanted to replace, not assist, the old opposition.

A supporter holds a portrait of Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) chief Vijay during the latter's visit to Saibaba Temple, at Shirdi in Ahilyanagar, Maharashtra, Wednesday, April 29, 2026. Photo: PTI
A supporter holds a portrait of Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) chief Vijay during the latter's visit to Saibaba Temple, at Shirdi in Ahilyanagar, Maharashtra, Wednesday, April 29, 2026. Photo: PTI

Cinema vs politics: How TN always favoured the stars
No state in India understands the connection between cinema and politics like Tamil Nadu. M G Ramachandran transformed screen fame into mass politics. J Jayalalithaa followed. Even DMK stalwart Karunanidhi came from the film world as a writer.

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Vijay enters this tradition with perhaps the most modern fan machinery any actor has possessed. His fan network, later formalised as the All India Thalapathy Vijay Makkal Iyakkam, had already shown organisational muscle in the local body polls, winning a notable number of seats in 2021. Unlike stars who announced political plans and retreated, Vijay built a structure first and entered later.

TVK chief Vijay is contesting his debut Assembly election battle from Perambur and Tiruchirapalli in Tamil Nadu. File photo: PTI
TVK chief Vijay is contesting his debut Assembly election battle from Perambur and Tiruchirapalli in Tamil Nadu. File photo: PTI

Not pure Dravidian, not anti-Dravidian
Vijay’s politics has been careful and calculated. He has not rejected Dravidian politics outright, which would be risky in Tamil Nadu. Instead, he has tried to reinterpret it. He invoked Periyar, K Kamaraj, B R Ambedkar, Rani Velu Nachiyar and Anjali Ammal as inspirations, creating a broader ideological umbrella. That allows him to speak the language of social justice, Tamil pride and welfare politics while also pitching himself as a fresh alternative to entrenched party systems.

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His repeated attacks on both Bharatiya Janata Party and DMK were designed to show independence from national and state power centres alike.

The caste equation
No Tamil Nadu election can be understood without caste arithmetic, and Vijay’s team appears to have recognised that from the outset.

His outreach to Dalit voters has been especially visible. During TVK’s first major rally in Vikravandi, Vijay named B R Ambedkar as one of the ideological mentors of the party. The choice of venue was politically significant. Vikravandi, in northern Tamil Nadu, lies in a region with a sizeable Dalit population and is seen as a stronghold of Viduthalai Chiruthaigal Katchi leader Thol Thirumavalavan. VCK itself traces its roots to the Dalit Panthers movement.

The messaging was hard to miss. Vijay’s newly formed party seems to be making a direct bid for Dalit voters, while also trying to build a broader coalition among marginalised communities. His popularity among these groups did not begin with politics. Over the years, several of his film roles, built around injustice, dignity and confrontation with entrenched power, helped him cultivate an audience that extended beyond conventional fan bases.

Vijay also appears to be targeting urban lower-middle-class voters, unemployed youth, students and floating anti-incumbency voters who no longer feel emotionally tied to either DMK or AIADMK.

Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) chief Vijay during a visit to Saibaba Temple, at Shirdi in Ahilyanagar, Maharashtra, Wednesday, April 29, 2026. Photo: PTI
Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) chief Vijay during a visit to Saibaba Temple, at Shirdi in Ahilyanagar, Maharashtra, Wednesday, April 29, 2026. Photo: PTI

The Karur stampede: A defining test
Vijay’s political ascent has not been without a moment of profound crisis, and nothing tested his transition from screen icon to political leader more than the Karur stampede of September 27, 2025.

The tragedy unfolded during a massive rally addressed by Vijay in Karur, where surging crowds and chaotic conditions led to a stampede that claimed 41 lives and left more than 60 people injured. What had been planned as a show of organisational strength and public enthusiasm instead became the darkest chapter yet of his emerging political career.

For many public figures, such an episode might have forced retreat. Vijay chose confrontation. At an election rally after filing his nomination from Tiruchirapalli East, he described the Karur tragedy as a “joint machination” and suggested that powerful interests were working against him. “I, who have come to ask justice for you, also want justice,” he said, attempting to recast himself not as an accused political novice, but as someone battling a hostile system.

Footwear and other belongings of people who attended the rally of actor and TVK chief Vijay lie on a road in the aftermath of a stampede. Photo: PTI
Footwear and other belongings of people who attended the rally of actor and TVK chief Vijay lie on a road in the aftermath of a stampede. Photo: PTI

Personal turbulence in public view
As if the pressures of a first election were not enough, Vijay’s private life has also been drawn into the public arena, becoming an unavoidable subplot in his political rise.

For much of his career, Vijay cultivated an image of discipline and distance. Unlike many stars who openly embraced celebrity culture, he was known for keeping his family life guarded and his public appearances selective. That reserve helped build an aura around him, but politics has a way of dissolving such boundaries. Reports surrounding divorce proceedings involving Sangeetha Sornalingam brought unusual attention to a marriage that had long remained outside the glare of constant media scrutiny.

At the same time, speculation linking Vijay with Trisha Krishnan intensified after the two were seen arriving together at a high-profile wedding reception in Chennai. Images from the event spread rapidly online, fuelling commentary that ranged from fan fascination to political gossip. In another season, such chatter might have remained confined to entertainment circles. During an election year, it was interpreted through a political lens.

Wealth, image and power
Vijay’s election affidavit declaring assets worth more than ₹600 crore underlined another dimension of his candidacy: scale. He is not an outsider entering politics with symbolic ambition. He arrives with money, brand power, an entrenched fan network and a level of visibility few first-time candidates anywhere in India can match. That alone makes Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam different from many new parties that begin with energy but lack structure or resources.

Vijay unveils party symbol 'Whistle' at an event held in Mahabalipuram, Tamil Nadu on Sunday. Photo: PTI
Vijay unveils party symbol 'Whistle' at an event held in Mahabalipuram, Tamil Nadu on Sunday. Photo: PTI

Why this election matters even if he falls short
Even if TVK does not form government, Vijay may already have achieved something significant. If he pushes AIADMK behind him in multiple seats, he changes opposition politics overnight. If he sustains a statewide vote share, he becomes impossible to ignore in future alliance arithmetic.

And if he wins strongly in both seats he contested, he gains moral legitimacy beyond cinema fandom.

A new Tamil Nadu script?

For years, observers asked who would inherit Tamil Nadu after the era of Stalin vs AIADMK factionalism stabilised. Few expected the answer to come this quickly — or from a superstar entering his first Assembly battle.

These trends suggest he may have been right.

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