The third question in Onmanorama's 'Assembly Poll Survey', 'Which of the following will influence voters the most in the Assembly polls', has thrown up a result that does not tally with the general understanding of voter behaviour. 

Perception is, the voter is easily swayed by caste and religious factors. It is also believed that freebies would charm voters. The Onmanorama Poll shatters both these deeply held beliefs.

It is only a small percentage  of the total 1,604 respondents that felt that either 'religious/community factors' (12.09%) or 'welfare initiatives' (12.41%) could influence voter behaviour.

On the contrary, an overwhelming majority of nearly 60 per cent of the respondents (960 out of 1,604) felt that 'development' alone mattered. 

On the face of it, such a thinking should favour the LDF. Unlike any CPM-led governments before, the Pinarayi government is eager to project its development credentials. No other CPM Chief Minister has been as confident of his development record as Pinarayi. The CM behaves as if he has bragging rights over development. And in the run-up to the Assembly elections, the government has unleashed an ad blitzkrieg to sell its development triumphs; highways, roads, ports, bridges, schools, hospitals, power lines, and underground pipelines. 

Nonetheless, a vote for 'development' does not necessarily mean a blanket endorsement of Pinarayi Vijayan. There is stiff resistance, even within the Left, to what has been called Pinarayi Vijayan's 'development at any cost' credo. The collapse of the newly constructed national highway at various stretches in Kerala had revived the debate about the LDF's seemingly dismissive approach to the environment. There was also widespread public disapproval of the LDF government's flagship Silverline semi-high-speed rail project.

Therefore, when a voter says that development is the key election issue, she could also have been referring to the kind of development that she wants her government to pursue. Seen from this perspective, it is not necessary that the idea of development will favour the LDF. 

However, the poll still offers some unconditional respite for the LDF. Only 15.65 per cent of the respondents felt that the Sabarimala gold scandal, for which the CPM has been under fire, would be a decisive factor. This could possibly be because the names of Congress leaders, too, have cropped up in connection with the loot, neutralising the political potency of the Sabarimala cause.

This overwhelming preference for development and relative indifference towards freebies and divisive issues like faith and caste can also be attributed to what pollsters term as 'voter snobbery'. This refers to a tendency among survey respondents to hide true feelings behind a veil of refinement. In other words, some of the responses to the survey could have been misleading. 

Still, it has to be noted that voter behaviour in the recent local body polls agrees with the Onmanorama Poll results that suggests voter apathy for welfare initiatives. Last October, before the local body polls, the LDF government had tried to lure the electorate with a variety of welfare announcements; an increase in welfare pensions, Sthree Suraksha pensions and 'connect to work' scholarships for youths. The results showed that these were not persuasive enough.