Kottayam: The 2026 Kerala Assembly election is shaping up to be a major setback for Kerala Congress (M), with early trends indicating a poor performance for the party across several key constituencies.

Of the 12 seats contested by KCM, the party is leading in just one seat as counting progresses, raising fresh questions over its political future an dexistence in the state. 

Party chairman Jose K Mani is trailing in Pala, a constituency long regarded as the political heartland of Kerala Congress politics. Water Resources Minister Roshy Augustine, the second man in the party after the chairman, is also behind in Idukki. While the party’s only lead so far comes from sitting MLA Sebastian Kulathunkal in Poonjar, where he holds only a narrow advantage over Congress candidate Sebastian M J.

The results are likely to reignite the internal debate within the party over whether KCM should continue in the LDF or explore a return to the UDF. The question had already emerged as a major talking point ahead of the election.

Roshy Augustine was among the strongest voices within the party advocating continued alignment with the LDF, while sections within KCM, led by Jose K Mani, were believed to be more open to re-evaluating the alliance and a comeback to the UDF. 

The poor showing in this election significantly weakens the influence of both Jose K Mani and Roshy Augustine within the party. Internal dissent is also expected to grow louder once the final results are declared.

KCM had played a crucial role in the LDF’s breakthrough in Kottayam district in the 2021 Assembly election after switching from the UDF to the Left alliance following Jose K Mani’s fallout with veteran leader P J Joseph. With the party in its fold, the LDF won five seats in 2021 and also registered significant gains in the 2020 local body elections.

However, the current election trends suggest a reversal of fortunes. Kerala Congress (M) is trailing even in traditional strongholds. In Kanjirappally, Congress candidate Rony K Baby is leading by around 3,000 votes against veteran KCM leader N Jayaraj — a development few surveys had anticipated.

With the UDF racing ahead statewide and emerging trends pointing to a broader anti-incumbency wave against the LDF, KCM appears to have been among the biggest casualties of the shifting political mood.

The 2025 local body elections had already signalled shifting voter preferences, with the UDF making significant gains across Kerala, including in Kottayam district, where Congress and its allies regained several local bodies from the LDF and KCM.

The local body results have prompted Jose to explore the possibility of returning to the UDF. However, during the party’s steering committee meeting held in Kottayam in January, senior leader Roshy Augustine and a majority of the party’s MLAs reportedly opposed any alliance shift ahead of the Assembly election.

Roshy, who was the party’s lone minister in the LDF government, had emerged as one of the strongest advocates for continuing with the Left alliance. However, with the party now facing setbacks across key constituencies and Roshy himself trailing in Idukki, his influence over the alliance question is likely to come under strain.

This could strengthen voices within KCM seeking a reassessment of the party’s long-term political alignment. With Jose K Mani himself having earlier been seen as open to revisiting ties with the UDF, the post-election phase could trigger renewed internal discussions on the party’s future course.

However, a return to the UDF may not be straightforward for KCM. The party now appears to be negotiating from a weaker position after a disappointing electoral performance, which could significantly reduce its bargaining power in any future alliance discussions.

Further complicating matters is the likely resistance from Kerala Congress leader P J Joseph. Joseph had earlier publicly argued that KCM had lost relevance within the LDF and questioned the need for its return to the UDF. His position may gain greater weight now, especially his Kerala Congress have performed strongly in the election.

Early trends show P J Joseph’s Kerala Congress leading in several constituencies, including direct contests against KCM in Changanassery, Kaduthuruthy and Thodupuzha, underlining the shifting balance of power within Kerala’s Christian-centric regional politics.

KCM’s setbacks are not limited to Kottayam district. In Ranni, Pramod Narayanan is behind, while Basil Paul is trailing in Perumbavoor. The party is also facing setbacks in Chalakudy and Irikkur, constituencies it had hoped would aid its expansion beyond central Kerala.

The trends suggest that KCM’s strategy of remaining with the LDF has not delivered the electoral dividends the party may have expected after its 2021 breakthrough. As counting continues, the party now appears headed toward a period of introspection, with both its alliance strategy and organisational direction likely to come under fresh scrutiny.