Manjeshwar: IUML’s A K M Ashraf has retained the Manjeshwar Assembly seat by over 31,000 votes, marking a decisive shift from the constituency’s history of razor-thin contests.

Ashraf surged ahead early in the counting and steadily widened his lead as rounds progressed. By the end of Round 12, he had established a commanding lead of 32,302 votes over BJP’s K Surendran. Ashraf secured 96,367 votes, while Surendran trailed with 65,174. CPM’s K R Jayanandan finished a distant third with 20,365 votes.

The counting trends showed a clear turnaround from the initial postal ballot phase, where Surendran had briefly taken the lead. As EVM counting began, Ashraf quickly overtook him. In Round 1, Ashraf led with 6,721 votes against Surendran’s 4,269, while Jayanandan polled 799 votes. From there, the IUML candidate continued to build momentum, expanding his lead across successive rounds.

By Round 2, Ashraf had opened up a lead of 13,946 votes, which further increased to over 26,000 votes by Round 4. The margin continued to grow through Rounds 6 and 9, eventually crossing 30,000 votes by Round 12, effectively sealing the contest.

The result marks a sharp departure from the previous elections in Manjeshwar, which were decided by extremely narrow margins. In 2021, Ashraf had defeated Surendran by just 745 votes, while the 2016 election saw a margin of only 89 votes. This time, however, the constituency delivered a clear and decisive verdict.

Manjeshwar, along with Kasaragod, is one of the only two constituencies in Kerala where the BJP is in a direct contest with the IUML. Surendran, who contested the seat for the fourth time, had earlier lost narrowly to Ashraf and was aiming to convert the seat in his favour. Despite an early lead in postal ballots, he was unable to maintain momentum as counting progressed.

The trends indicated a strong consolidation of votes in favour of the UDF, while the CPM’s vote share remained limited. Jayanandan’s distant third-place finish highlighted the reduced impact of the LDF in a constituency that has increasingly seen a bipolar contest.

Pre-poll indicators had also pointed towards such an outcome. The Onmanorama poll metre and the Manorama News–C Voter exit poll had suggested a likely swing in favour of Ashraf.

Voting patterns also reflected changing dynamics in the constituency. While the 2021 election saw nearly equal participation from Hindu and Muslim voters, the 2026 polls recorded a higher turnout among Muslim voters. Combined with the UDF’s strong performance in recent local body elections, where it swept all eight panchayats and four district panchayat divisions, this appears to have strengthened Ashraf’s position.

With this victory, Manjeshwar moves away from its reputation as one of Kerala’s closest battlegrounds, delivering instead one of the most decisive results in the state this election.