Counting of postal ballots began at 8 am on Monday, with BJP’s K Surendran leading with 112 votes, followed by IUML’s A K M Ashraf, while LDF’s K R Jayananda trailed.

Manjeshwar has emerged as one of Kerala’s closest and most unpredictable battlegrounds, with the last two Assembly elections decided by razor-thin margins of just 89 votes and 745 votes. Such narrow outcomes have made the constituency highly competitive, where even small shifts in voter preference can change the result.

The constituency also stands out as one of only two in the state, along with Kasaragod, where the BJP is in a direct contest with the Indian Union Muslim League (IUML).

Key candidates in the fray
The United Democratic Front (UDF) has fielded sitting MLA A K M Ashraf of the IUML. He enters the race with strong grassroots support and growing personal appeal across communities.

The BJP has once again fielded K Surendran, its former state president, marking his fourth attempt in the constituency. His campaign this time seeks to broaden its appeal by foregrounding issues of linguistic minorities, particularly among Kannada and Tulu-speaking voters, alongside the party’s core strategy of consolidating Hindu votes.

The Left Democratic Front (LDF) has nominated CPM’s Kasaragod district secretariat member and native of Tulunadu, K R Jayananda, opting for experience over a younger face. But his candidature was largely to avoid splitting minority votes in a tightly contested seat.

Past results and voting trends
Manjeshwar’s electoral history underscores its volatility. The last two elections were decided by extremely narrow margins, reflecting a near-even split in voter support.

Voting patterns show a delicate social balance. In the 2021 election, the turnout saw roughly equal numbers of Hindu and Muslim voters, about 83,000 each, along with around 6,000 Christians.

In 2026, the gap between Hindu and Muslim voters widened to over 19,000; while around 81,700 Hindus cast their votes, around 1,01,000 Muslims inked their fingers.

And around 3,500 Christians too cast their votes, taking the total polling percentage to 81.04%, the highest in the district. In 2021, the turnout in Manjeshwar was 77.78%.

Traditionally, the BJP’s prospects hinge on near-total consolidation of Hindu votes. But in reality, the BJP gets around 80% of Hindu votes and the Muslim League gets around 65% of the Muslim votes.

Recent local body elections have added momentum to the UDF, which swept all eight panchayats and four district panchayat divisions in the constituency, resetting the political baseline ahead of the Assembly polls.

In the 2021 Kerala Assembly election, A K M Ashraf emerged victorious in a closely contested battle, securing 65,758 votes, defeating K Surendran, who received 65,013 votes, a difference of less than one percentage points in vote share. The final margin of victory was a slim 745 votes. CPM's V V Rameshan finished in third place with 40,639 votes.