Nattika entered counting day with its biggest talking point centred on C C Mukundan’s dramatic switch from the CPI to the BJP. The sitting MLA’s crossover transformed what was expected to be a routine LDF defence into one of Thrissur district’s more closely watched contests.

Early trends now show LDF candidate and former MLA Geetha Gopi in the lead, with UDF’s Sunil Laloor in second place, while NDA candidate and rebel C C Mukundan has slipped to third.

BJP gamble meets organisational reality
Mukundan’s crossover from CPI to BJP has been the defining political story here. It gave the NDA a recognisable local face and briefly raised hopes of a breakthrough in a constituency where the BJP has previously remained competitive but distant. Yet that transition has not been seamless. BJP workers who once campaigned against Mukundan now find themselves defending him, and signs of that discomfort have been visible at the booth level. The late-campaign controversy surrounding the arrest of a former aide of Mukundan only deepened the confrontation, with the LDF and NDA turning it into a battle of narratives.

Why the LDF holds the edge
Even so, the LDF enters counting with structural advantages. Geetha Gopi benefits from the Left’s entrenched organisation, strong cadre loyalty and recent dominance in local body polls across panchayats such as Valappad, Thalikulam, Chazhur, Thanniam and Anthikad. The fragmentation of anti-LDF votes between the NDA and UDF could also work in her favour. The UDF’s Sunil Laloor, however, has mounted a steady campaign and remained active on local issues over the past five years, giving Congress workers hope that voter churn could produce an upset or at least a stronger finish. Nattika also recorded 76.38% polling this time, up sharply from 71.33% in 2021.

Both Manorama News–C Voter exit poll and Onmanorama poll meter suggests the exit of sitting MLA C C Mukundhan and the controversies that followed have not hurt the LDF significantly. It predicts CPI’s Geetha Gopi will retain Nattika.

In 2021, the constituency delivered a commanding verdict for the C C Mukundan, then contesting as a CPI candidate, won with 72,930 votes, or 47.49% of the total. UDF candidate Sunil Laloor secured 44,499 votes, while BJP’s Lojanan Ambattu polled 33,716 votes. Mukundan’s victory margin stood at a formidable 28,431 votes.

In 2016, Geetha Gopi of the CPI won the seat with 70,218 votes, accounting for 46.67%. Congress candidate K V Dasan finished second with 43,441 votes, while BDJS candidate T.V. Babu polled 33,650 votes. Geetha Gopi was elected by a margin of 26,777 votes, underlining the depth of Left support in the constituency.

In 2011, Geetha Gopi had also secured a comfortable win, polling 64,555 votes, or 50.21%. Vikas Chakrapani of the CMP came second with 48,501 votes, while BJP candidate Sarju Thoyakavu received 11,144 votes. The CPI candidate’s winning margin that year was 16,054 votes, beginning a run of increasingly decisive Left victories in Nattika.