Nemom remains one of the most closely watched constituencies in Kerala, largely because it offers the BJP its most viable pathway to a breakthrough in the state. The party has fielded its state president Rajeev Chandrasekhar in a seat that delivered its first-ever Assembly win through O Rajagopal in 2016. While the CPM has retained General Education Minister and sitting MLA V Sivankutty, the Congress has brought former MLA and Thiruvananthapuram councillor K Sabarinadhan, setting up a triangular contest in the constituency with around 1.7 lakh voters.

Both the Manorama News–C Voter exit poll and the Onmanorama poll meter, which tracked 12 high-intensity constituencies through the campaign, have indicated a BJP edge here.

Reading past trend lines
Nemom’s electoral behaviour over the past decade points to a consolidation of the BJP as a third pole strong enough to disrupt Kerala’s bipolar pattern. The party’s rise has been incremental but steady. In the 2025 local body polls, it won 15 of the 23 wards in the segment, up from 13 in 2020, indicating deepening grassroots penetration. This is significant because local body performance in Kerala often mirrors booth-level organisational strength.

Even in Lok Sabha elections where the Congress has dominated the Thiruvananthapuram seat through Shashi Tharoor, Nemom has stood out as an exception. In both 2014 and 2024, when Tharoor secured leads of nearly one lakh votes overall, the BJP managed to stay ahead in this segment. This suggests a durable BJP vote base that operates somewhat independently of broader parliamentary trends.

The turning point came in 2011, when O Rajagopal expanded the BJP’s vote share from a marginal 5 per cent to nearly 38 per cent, losing to V Sivankutty by just 6,415 votes. This was not a one-off surge but the beginning of a structural shift. By 2016, the BJP converted that momentum into a win, with Rajagopal securing 47.46 per cent of the vote and defeating Sivankutty by 8,671 votes. The UDF vote collapsed to below 10 per cent, indicating a significant transfer of anti-LDF votes to the BJP.

The 2021 election, however, showed the limits of this consolidation. The Congress fielded K Muraleedharan, who revived the UDF’s vote share to around 25 per cent by reclaiming a section of votes that had drifted to the BJP. This split in the anti-LDF vote enabled Sivankutty to return with a relatively comfortable win, despite his vote share dipping to 38.24 per cent.

What it means in 2026
The 2026 contest hinges on whether Nemom remains a bipolar fight between the LDF and BJP, or reverts to a triangular contest with the Congress as a serious claimant. The BJP’s pathway to victory depends on retaining its expanded base while preventing leakage back to the Congress. The party’s recent local body gains and consistent performance in parliamentary segments suggest it has built a stable core vote.

For the CPM, the strategy is to hold on to its traditional vote base of around 38–42 per cent and benefit from any division in the opposition. Its 2021 victory demonstrated that even a reduced vote share can be sufficient in a three-way contest.

The Congress faces the most complex challenge. For Sabarinadhan to emerge competitive, he must not only consolidate the party’s core vote but also attract a substantial share of floating and anti-incumbency voters.