War is a concern, major Malayalam movies may still prefer theatre release to OTT

With tensions between Iran and Israel escalating, Malayalam cinema is facing a pressing question: could producers consider OTT releases instead of theatres due to uncertainty in the Gulf markets?
Industry insiders, however, suggest a sudden switch to OTT is unlikely. Producer G Suresh Kumar told Onmanorama, “I don’t think producers will suddenly shift to OTT deals just because of the conflict. If they receive good offers from streaming platforms, they might consider it, but otherwise it’s unlikely to happen. We also don’t know how long the conflict will last.”

K Vijayakumar, president of Film Exhibitors United Organisation of Kerala, emphasised the enduring value of theatres. “The movies being made in Kerala today are intended for theatres, an experience that OTT can never replicate. So the films that have been shot and are ready for release will go to cinemas,” he said. Vijayakumar added that while films not heavily reliant on the Kerala box office might explore other options, titles primarily targeting the local audience will stick to theatrical release. “It is on that basis that movies like Aadu 3 are going ahead with their release,” he noted.

The concern stems from the Gulf region, a critical overseas market for Malayalam films. “The areas affected are primarily in the Middle East, so overseas collections from those regions are bound to take a hit. We can’t say for certain how much the conflict will impact films, and audiences might be hesitant to step out of their homes to watch movies,” Kumar said. He added, “Clearly, it’s a period of uncertainty for everyone. No one expected a conflict of this scale, or that it would lead to situations like the LPG crisis.”

Yet, despite the risks, several major releases are proceeding as planned. Geetu Mohandas’s Toxic, originally slated for March 19, has been postponed to June due to potential overseas uncertainty. In contrast, the makers of Aadu 3 and Aditya Dhar’s Dhurandhar sequel are sticking to their release dates.

B Rakesh, president of the Kerala Film Producers’ Association, pointed out that OTT is not automatically a fallback. “The makers of Aadu 3 are going ahead with the theatrical release as planned, and OTT deals remain unchanged. Not every film has been sold to streaming platforms yet; those arrangements usually happen after the release,” he said. He added, “As for the other films, nothing has been confirmed regarding direct OTT releases at this stage. OTT, overseas, and theatrical collections all remain important. These days, overseas earnings are almost on par with domestic collections, and distributors often get higher advance payments from those markets.”

Exhibitors also caution against delaying releases indefinitely. Vijayakumar explained, “Overseas collections will suffer, yes, but if we wait for them, Kerala collections will also take a hit. Even if makers push release dates, multiple films will clash, and they’ll lose the advantage of a solo release.” He added that most films scheduled until May 31 already have OTT rights sold, but this doesn’t mean they’ll skip theatres. “Most of the films committed until May 31 have OTT rights, yet they are set for theatrical release,” he said.

While OTT releases were a viable solution during COVID-19, when films like C U Soon, Drishyam 2, Malik, and Sufiyum Sujatayum premiered online, the current situation is not comparable. Kumar explained, “If a film turns out to be a hit, the box office collections these days can be massive. So it’s unlikely that producers would suddenly opt for an OTT release.”

Still, some projects depend on larger distribution decisions. “Drishyam 3 is a different case, its distribution is with Panorama Studios, and we don’t know what they will decide,” Vijayakumar said.