The UDF is projected to gain an edge over the LDF in Kasaragod district in the 2026 Kerala Assembly elections, according to the Manorama News–C Voter exit poll released on Wednesday.

The Congress-led front is expected to win between two and four seats in the district, while the LDF is projected to secure one to three seats. The projection signals a reversal from the 2021 Assembly elections, when the LDF won three of the district’s five seats and the UDF secured two.

The survey projects 'zero' seats for the BJP-led NDA in Kasaragod, with the party unlikely to make a breakthrough even in Manjeshwar, which was considered an 'A-class' seat for the saffron party.

In Manjeshwar, where a keen three-cornered contest is underway, BJP leader K Surendran is projected to finish behind UDF candidate A K M Ashraf, while LDF’s K R Jayananda remains in the fray. The survey rates Ashraf as safe, with the IUML leader likely to retain the seat.

If the projection holds, it would mark Surendran’s fourth consecutive Assembly election defeat in Manjeshwar, having lost previously in 2011, 2016 and 2021.

In terms of vote share, the UDF is projected to secure 43 per cent of the votes in the district, ahead of the LDF’s 36 per cent and the NDA’s 17 per cent, giving the Congress-led alliance a seven-point lead over the ruling front.

The Manorama News–C Voter exit poll survey offers the first comprehensive snapshot of voter sentiment across the state. The survey, conducted between April 9 and 24, covered 28,848 voters. The sample was carefully designed to reflect Kerala’s demographic and socio-economic diversity, improving the reliability of the projections.

The exit poll outlines the overall political trend in Kerala, with detailed district-wise insights across all 14 districts. It also decodes key battlegrounds, tracks vote share patterns, and indicates public preference for the Chief Minister’s post.

As per Section 126A of the Representation of the People Act, 1951, the Election Commission of India had prohibited the conduct and publication of exit polls from 7 am on April 9, 2026, to 6.30 pm on April 29, 2026.