Kozhikode: The Manorama News-C Voter exit poll results projected a decisive advantage for the United Democratic Front (UDF) across northern districts of Kerala. According to the poll, the UDF is expected to win 33-37 out of 48 Assembly seats in the region, while the Left Democratic Front (LDF) may secure only 11-15.

The exit poll forecast a clear win for the UDF in the state with 82-94 seats while LDF may bag 44-56, leaving NDA with just 1-3.

The poll indicated that the UDF could win up to 16 seats in Malappuram district and as many as 11 in Kozhikode district — a performance that could be crucial for the front’s prospects of returning to power after a decade. The poll also suggests that UDF’s vote share may cross 40% in all northern districts, while LDF is projected to remain below 40% in most areas, except Kozhikode and Kannur.

In Kasaragod district, UDF is projected to secure 43% of the vote share, compared to LDF’s 36%. The Manjeshwar constituency, which had seen closely-fought contests between the UDF and NDA in the past, is expected to swing clearly in favour of UDF candidate AKM Ashraf of the IUML this time. Poll observers feel that voter additions through the Special Intensive Revision (SIR) process may have played a key role in UDF's clear upper hand in Manjeswar. In 2021, Ashraf had won the seat by a narrow margin of 89 votes. The exit poll predicted 2-4 seats out of teh total 5 for the UDF in the district, while LDF may bag 1-3.

In Kannur, traditionally considered an LDF stronghold, the poll gave LDF a slight edge with a projected 45% vote share against UDF’s 43%. LDF is expected to win 6-8 seats, while UDF may secure 3-5. However, the increase in UDF’s vote share could significantly influence the overall outcome in the district, often referred to as the “red fort” of Kerala politics.

In Peravoor, one of the high-profile constituencies, the poll results predicted a clear victory for Sunny Joseph of the UDF over former Health Minister K K Shylaja of the LDF. Meanwhile, in Thaliparamba, where UDF fielded CPM rebel candidate T K Govindan as its candidate, LDF's P K Shyamala is expected to retain the seat comfortably.

In Kozhikode, UDF is projected to win 9-11 seats with 45% vote share, while LDF may secure only 2-4 with 40% vote share. This is a major shift from the 2021 election, when UDF won only two seats — Vatakara and Koduvalli — while LDF captured the remaining 11. In Kuttiady, LDF’s Kunjahammed Kutty Master is projected to lose to UDF candidate Parakkal Abdulla (IUML). In Beypore, Minister P A Mohammed Riyas is expected to win over former LDF MLA PV Anvar, who switched to UDF this time. 

In Wayanad, where rehabilitation of Chooralmala landslide victims was a major campaign issue, UDF is projected to win 2-3 seats, while LDF may secure 0-1 seat, as per the exit poll. UDF’s vote share is projected at 49%, compared to LDF’s 34%. Currently, UDF holds two constituencies in the district.

Malappuram is expected to deliver a sweeping victory for UDF, with a projected 52% vote share compared to LDF’s 37%. According to the poll, UDF may capture 14-16 seats, while LDF is likely to win only one. The survey suggests UDF will wrest two seats—Thavanur and Tanur—from LDF. Congress’s VS Joy is projected to win in Thavanur, while IUML’s PK Navas is likely to triumph in Tanur. Sitting MLA and former minister KT Jaleel may be defeated in Thavanur. Sitting MLA and Sports Minister V Abdurahiman contested from Tirur this time, although the party had initially decided to field him in Tanur.

In Palakkad district, the exit poll indicated an upper hand for UDF in vote share (40%) over LDF (39%), while the LDF is projected to win more seats—7-9 compared to UDF’s 3-5. NDA is expected to secure 16% of the vote share. UDF candidates Ramesh Pisharody and VT Balram are projected to win the Palakkad and Thrithala seats respectively. BJP's fire brand leader Sobha Surendran is the NDA candidate in Palakkad. Meanwhile, LDF is expected to retain Ottapalam, where UDF fielded CPM rebel PK Sasi.

As per the exit poll projections, a strong resurgence for the UDF in northern Kerala, with significant gains in Kozhikode, Malappuram, and Wayanad, while LDF is expected to maintain control in parts of Kannur and Palakkad. The results, if they hold, could reshape Kerala’s political landscape after a decade of LDF governance.