The Manorama News-CVoter 2026 exit poll results showed that the UDF would gallop to power on the force of a strong anti-incumbency sentiment.

The exit poll 2026 showed a massive 7 per cent swing against the LDF, its 2021 vote share of 45.43 per cent plummeting to 38 per cent. In 2016, when the first Pinarayi Vijayan ministry came to power, the losing UDF had a similar 7 per cent swing against it.

The exit poll predicted that the spoils of anti-incumbency would be shared between the UDF and the BJP-led NDA, though not equally. The UDF vote share, according to the exit poll, would go up by 3 per cent to 43 per cent, and the BJP's would rise by 1.5 per cent to 14 per cent.

With a 3 per cent positive swing in votes, the Congress-led UDF is expected to win 82-94 seats. The negative 7 per cent swing is expected to draw down the CPM-led LDF tally from the 99 it had secured in 2021 to the 44-56 range. The BJP, on the other hand, is expected to win 1-3 seats.

The exit poll forecast the UDF gaining big in districts like Kannur, Kozhikode, Palakkad, Thrissur, Idukki, Pathanamthitta, Alappuzha, Kollam, and Thiruvananthapuram where the coalition could win only zero to two seats in the 2021 polls.

In districts like Kozhikode, Alappuzha, Idukki, Pathanamthitta and Kollam, the exit poll predicted UDF domination, an indication of an anti-LDF wave. Inherent in this surge could also be a mass mobilisation of Muslim, and to an extent Christian, votes in favour of the UDF. 

However, in all the districts, even where it still retains its dominance like Kasaragod, Kannur, Palakkad, and Thrissur, the LDF vote share would dip dramatically.

Kozhikode
This is a district where the Congress had not won a single seat in at least two decades. P Sankaran was the last Congress MLA; he won from Koyilandy in 2001.

In 2021, the UDF had won just two of the 13 seats in Kozhikode district: Vadakara (K K Rema - RMP) and Koduvally (M K Muneer - IUML). This time, the exit poll predicted that the UDF could bag an overwhelming 9-11 seats. There is a possibility that top LDF names like T P Ramakrishnan (Perambra), A K Saseendran (Elathur), Thottathil Raveendran (Kozhikode North), and even Mohammad Riyas (Beypore) could be trounced.

There was an indication of such a UDF surge, triggered mostly by Muslim consolidation, in the 2025 local body polls. The UDF now rules more panchayats (38-27) and municipalities (4-3) than the LDF in Kozhikode district.

The exit poll, which has identified 30 'Hot Seats' across Kerala, has picked two in Kozhikode: Kuttiadi and Beypore.

Kuttiadi is where the CPM's sitting MLA K P Kunhammed Kutty is battling his 2021 foe, Parakkal Abdulla of the Muslim League. Then, Kunhammed Kutty had won by a wafer-thin margin of 333 votes. This time, the exit poll suggested a clear edge for Parakkal Abdulla.

In Beypore, it is CPM's P A Mohammad Riyas versus his fiercest critic, the CPM 'ally turned foe' P V Anvar. Anvar had repeatedly said that he was fighting 'marumonism', his hybrid coinage for nepotism in the CPM. 

The exit poll suggested a 'close' fight, with a slight edge for Riyas. 

Alappuzha
In Alappuzha, where the UDF has Harippad alone, the exit poll showed the coalition winning 5-7 seats this time. The LDF, which had won eight of the nine seats on offer in 2021, is given chances only in 2-4 seats.

If such a result plays out, former CPM stalwart and minister G Sudhakaran's defection to the UDF would have played a part. 

Nonetheless, the poll predicted CPM's H Salam having a slight edge over Sudhakaran in Ambalappuzha, one of the 'Hot Seats'.

Kuttanad, where sitting LDF MLA Thomas K Thomas is fighting Kerala Congress's Reji Cherian, is the other 'Hot Seat' in the district. The exit poll gave UDF a 'slight edge' here.

Idukki
Last time, Thodupuzha (P J Joseph of Kerala Congress) was the only seat the UDF had won in Idukki.

The exit poll predicted the UDF could win all the five seats in Idukki; the projection is 3-5 seats. For LDF, it is 0-2 seats.

The 'Hot Seat' in the district is Idukki, where sitting MLA and minister Roshy Augustine is locked in a tight contest with Roy K Poulose of the Congress. The exit poll predicted a loss for Roshy Augustine, which could be a mighty setback for Kerala Congress (Mani). 

Roshy is widely considered as the person who stood in the way of Jose K Mani's intention to return to the UDF camp. The exit poll does not provide any cheer to Jose K Mani either in Pala.

Kollam
It is often said that the coalition that dominates Kollam would rule Kerala.

Last time, the LDF had won nine out of the 11 seats on offer. The Congress had just Karunagappally (C R Mahesh) and Kundara (P C Vishnunath).

The exit poll predicted 5-7 seats for the UDF in Kollam. And for the LDF, 4-6 seats. The UDF surge was evident during the 2025 local body polls. It wrested the Kollam Corporation from the LDF and almost doubled the panchayats it rules, from 17 in 2020 to 32 in 2025.

There are three 'Hot Seats' in Kollam: Kottarakkara, Pathanapuram and Kollam. The exit poll suggested a 'slight edge' in all three; for the LDF in Kottarakkara (K N Balagopal) and Pathanapuram (K B Ganesh Kumar), and for the UDF in Kollam (Bindu Krishna).

Pathanamthitta
In Pathanamthitta, where it had drawn a blank in 2021, the UDF is expected to win 2-4 seats.

And the LDF, which pocketed all the five seats in the district, could find its tally dwindle to even one. The exit poll showed the LDF could win 1-3 seats in Pathanamthitta.

There are two 'Hot Seats' in Pathanamthitta: Adoor and Aranmula. In Adoor, which is now held by the CPI and from where the CPI’s Priji Kannan, Congress's C V Shanthakumar and BJP's Pandalam Prathapan are contesting, the exit poll pointed to a 'slight edge' for the UDF.

In Aranmula, where there was a triangular contest among CPM's sitting MLA and health minister Veena George, Congress's Abin Varkey and BJP's Kummanan Rajasekharan, the exit poll described the close contest as a tie between George and Varkey.

Kasaragod
In Kasaragod, Kannur, Palakkad and Thrissur, the UDF is expected to better its performance though the LDF would retain its domination.

In 2021, the Muslim League had won two of the five seats in Kasaragod district: Manjeshwar (A K M Ashraf) and Kasaragod (N A Nellikkunnu). 

This time, according to the exit poll, the UDF could bag even up to four seats; 2-4 is the prediction. For the LDF, 1-3 is the prediction.

Manjeshwar, where it is a repeat of the 2021 contest, is the only 'Hot Seat' in the district. The exit poll predicted a comfortable win for A K M Ashraf against BJP's K Surendran. Last time, Ashraf won the seat by a whisker, by 745 votes.

There is a possibility that LDF citadels like Thrikkarippur, where the UDF candidate Sandeep Warier is pitted against CPM's V P P Mustafa, and Uduma, where sitting MLA C H Kunhambu is fighting Congress's K Neelakantan, could fall for the UDF.

Kannur
In 2021, the Congress had just two seats in the district: Peravoor (Sunny Joseph) and Irikkur (Sajeev Joseph).

This number, the exit poll suggested, could scale up to 3-5 seats. The LDF, on the other hand, could get 6-8 seats. 

Though the LDF seems to be on solid ground, the exit poll revealed a surprising 8 per cent fall in its vote share in the district, an indication that the rebellion of V Kunhikrishnan (Payyannur) and T K Govindan (Thaliparamba) might have had an effect. 

There are three 'Hot Seats' in Kannur: Thaliparamba, Kannur and Peravoor. Thaliparamba is the most keenly watched as CPM rebel T K Govindan, contesting as a UDF Independent, is taking on CPM's P K Shyamala. The exit poll predicted no upset. It is safe for Shyamala.

However, in the other two seats, it is advantage UDF. In Kannur, where sitting MLA and minister Ramachandran Kadannappally is up against T O Mohanan of the Congress, the fight is close but with a 'slight edge' for the Congress candidate. 

In Peravoor, the exit poll suggested that one of CPM's most popular faces, K K Shylaja, will not be able to unseat sitting MLA and KPCC president Sunny Joseph. 

Palakkad
Last time, the UDF had won just two of the 12 seats in the district: Mannarkkad (N Shamsudheen of IUML) and Palakkad (Congress's Shafi Parambil, and later retained by Rahul Mankoottathil).

The exit poll predicted 3-5 seats for the UDF, and for the LDF, 7-9. Even here, the LDF vote share is shown to have dropped by 7 per cent. 

There are three 'Hot Seats' in Palakkad: Thrithala, Ottappalam, and Palakkad. In Thrithala, the exit poll suggested an upset. Congress's V T Balaram might avenge his 2021 loss by defeating CPM's M B Rajesh.

It is a close fight in Ottapallam, where CPM rebel P K Sasi is taking on CPM's sitting MLA K Premkumar. Filmmaker Major Ravi is the BJP candidate. The exit poll revealed a 'slight edge' for the CPM.

In Palakkad, where Congress's Ramesh Pisharody and BJP's Sobha Surendran are the main contenders, the poll predicted a win for Pisharody.

Thrissur
Here the UDF's influence had subsided to near zilch after K Karunakaran's fall, and the exit poll revealed that the UDF would squeeze out only marginal gains this time. 

Last time, it has won just one (Chalakkudy - Saneesh Kumar Joseph) of the 13 seats. This time, the exit poll predicted 2-4 seats. For the LDF, it predicted 9-11 seats. Though the domination continues, the LDF vote share might drop by 6 per cent.

There are two 'Hot Seats' in Thrissur: Thrissur and Nattika.

The exit poll gave 'slight edge' for the Congress (Rajan J Pallan) in this three-cornered fight in Thrissur that also has CPI's Aalamcode Leelakrishnan and the BJP's Padmaja Venugopal, who as the Congress candidate had emerged second in 2021. 

In Nattiaka, where CPI's Geetha Gopi is up against Sunil Laloor of the Congress and also sitting MLA C C Mukundan who defected at the last minute to the BJP, the exit poll predicted a win for the CPI.

The BJP is shown to have improved its vote share by 2 per cent in Thrissur.

Wayanad
Wayanad, Malappuram, Ernakulam and Kottayam are districts where the UDF is expected to intensify its supremacy, perhaps even bag all the seats on offer.

The UDF could win 2-3 seats in Wayanad, a district where it had been politically damaged by the questions about the funds it collected for Wayanad reconstruction. Last time, the UDF had won two of the three seats in the district.

Malappuram
In Malappuram the UDF could corner all the 16 seats on offer; the projection is 14-16 seats. The projection for the LDF is 0-1 seat.

Tanur and Thavanur are the two 'Hot Seats' in Malappuram. The exit poll predicted a UDF win in both. In Tanur, LDF Independent and NRI businessman T Muhammad Zameer is fighting P K Navas of the Muslim League. This was a seat held by sports minister V Abdurahiman but, perhaps sensing defeat, he insisted on moving to Tirur this time. 

In Tavanur, sitting MLA and former minister K T Jaleel is fighting Congress's V S Joy. This could be Jaleel's first loss after his historic Kuttipuram rout of P K Kunhalikutty in 2006.

Ernakulam
Ernakulam, too, could be swept by the UDF. Projection is 12-14 seats. For the LDF, it is 0-2 seats.

There are three 'Hot Seats' in Ernakulam: Kalamassery, Thrippunithura and Kunnathunadu. 

Kunnathunadu, where T20 is a decisive presence, is expected to go the UDF way this time. 

Last time, when CPM's P V Sreenijan had won, Sujith P Surendran of T20 had secured 42,701 votes. It was widely perceived that the T20 had mostly snatched the votes of Congress candidate V P Sajeendran. This time, with the party joining the NDA, T20 is expected to lose its large chunk of minority votes. T20's loss could be Sajeendran's gain.

In Thrippunithura, where there was the charge that the BJP had fielded a T20 candidate to aid on the sly the chances of the CPM candidate, the fight is close with a 'slight edge' for Congress's Deepak Joy over the CPM's Unnikrishnan K N. 

In Kalamassery, where minister P Rajeev is up against VE Abdul Gafoor of the League (a repeat of 2021), it is a dead heat, with neither showing a lead.

Kottayam
The UDF could win all the nine seats in Kottayam, too. The projection is 7-9 seats. And for the LDF, it is 0-2 seats.

Pala, Changanassery and Poonjar are the three 'Hot Seats' in Kottayam. The exit poll forecast the UDF is ahead in all the three. In Pala, where Mani C Kappen (UDF Independent), Jose K Mani (Kerala Congress - Mani) and Shone George (BJP) are engaged in a triangular fight, the contest is 'close', with only a slight edge for Kappen.

The initial reading was that Shone would eat into the UDF votes. If the exit poll results hold out, it would mean that the Foreign Contribution Regulation Act championed by the BJP had kept even pro-BJP Christian votes away from Shone.

In Changanassery, the Kerala Congress of P J Joseph, represented by Vinu Jacob, is expected to topple sitting MLA Job Micheal of KC(M). In Poonjar, the Congress is expected to wrest the seat from KC(M)'s Sebastian Kulathunkal. BJP's P C George is also a candidate. There could be a Muslim consolidation in favour of the UDF candidate.

The KC(M) might turn out to be the biggest loser in this elections. 

Thiruvananthapuram
Thiruvananthapuram is where, according to the exit poll, the BJP could make a dent. Prediction is 1-3 seats for the BJP. 

And for the UDF, which had won just one seat last time (Kovalam - M Vincent), it is 4-6 seats. The LDF domination is expected to continue: 6-8 seats. Even then, the exit poll showed that the LDF would lose 9 per cent of its vote share in the district.

There are three 'Hot Seats' in Thiruvananthapuram: Kazhakuttam, Vattiyoorkavu and Nemom, three seats that witnessed triangular fights. 

The exit poll predicted a victory for BJP's Rajeev Chandrasekhar in Nemom. Nemom is the only place where BJP has secured a lead in this exit poll, even if it is only a 'slight edge'.

In the other two - Kazhakuttam and Vattiyoorkavu - there is a dead heat among all the three contestants. The exit poll showed all the three candidates - Kadakampally Surendran (CPM), V Muraleedharan (BJP) and Saratchandra Prasad (Congress) in Kazhakuttam and V K Prasanth (CPM), K Muraleedharan (Congress) and R Sreelekha (BJP) in Vattiyoorkavu - clearing the finishing line at the same time.