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A high-stakes political battle is unfolding across West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Assam and Puducherry as counting of votes continues, with early and mid-round trends now pointing to some of the most politically disruptive outcomes in recent memory. What began as a tightly watched multi-state contest has quickly evolved into sharply divergent verdicts, with clear leads emerging in some regions while others remain in a state of flux as rounds progress.

West Bengal has tilted decisively in favour of the BJP, which has opened up a wide lead and crossed the majority mark in trends, signalling a potential historic shift in the state’s political landscape. In Tamil Nadu, the contest has fractured into a three-way fight, with Vijay’s Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) emerging as the single largest force, ahead of both the ruling DMK and the AIADMK alliance, fundamentally reshaping the state’s traditional Dravidian binary.

In Assam, the BJP-led NDA is heading for a comfortable and decisive mandate, reinforcing its stronghold in the state, while Puducherry continues to stay firmly under NDA control with stable leads across constituencies. As counting progresses, several key seats are witnessing swings, but the broader direction of the mandate is becoming increasingly clear across states.

Artists play traditional drums as BJP workers celebrate the party taking lead during the Assam Assembly elections results day, at party headquarters, in Guwahati, Monday, May 4, 2026. Photo: PTI
Artists play traditional drums as BJP workers celebrate the party taking lead during the Assam Assembly elections results day, at party headquarters, in Guwahati, Monday, May 4, 2026. Photo: PTI

Tamil Nadu
TVK 107 | AIADMK+ 64 | DMK+ 63 | OTH 0

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Tamil Nadu has delivered a deeply fractured verdict with Vijay’s TVK leading the tally and emerging as the most significant political disruptor in the state. The DMK and AIADMK are locked in a close contest for second position, while several senior DMK leaders, including Chief Minister MK Stalin and Deputy CM Udhayanidhi Stalin, are trailing in early rounds, adding to the political shock value of the trends.

A supporter holds a cut-out of Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) chief Vijay during vote tabulation on the day of Assembly election results, in Chennai, Monday, May 4, 2026. Photo: PTI
A supporter holds a cut-out of Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) chief Vijay during vote tabulation on the day of Assembly election results, in Chennai, Monday, May 4, 2026. Photo: PTI

West Bengal
BJP 194 | TMC+ 90 | OTH 6 | INC 0 | LEFT+ 0

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West Bengal has seen a decisive shift towards the BJP, which is leading comfortably and crossing the majority mark in trends. The state has witnessed intense swings in key constituencies, including Bhabanipur, where Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee is now leading BJP challenger Suvendu Adhikari by 8,482 votes after multiple reversals across rounds. In Singur, the BJP has also gained an edge, strengthening its overall position across regions.

BJP supporters show victory sign amid celebrations for party's lead during vote tabulation on the day of West Bengal Assembly election results, at party office, in Kolkata, Monday, May 4, 2026. Photo: PTI
BJP supporters show victory sign amid celebrations for party's lead during vote tabulation on the day of West Bengal Assembly election results, at party office, in Kolkata, Monday, May 4, 2026. Photo: PTI

Assam
BJP+ 95 | INC+ 29 | OTH 2

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Assam is heading for a strong NDA mandate, with the BJP-led alliance maintaining a clear and consistent lead across the state. Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma is ahead in Jalukbari, while key BJP and alliance candidates, including Pradyut Bordoloi in Dispur, are also leading. Congress leader Gaurav Gogoi is trailing in Jorhat, reflecting the broader NDA dominance in trends.

Puducherry
NDA 22 | INDIA 6 | OTH 1 | TVK+ 0

Puducherry remains firmly in NDA control, with the ruling alliance maintaining comfortable leads across constituencies. Chief Minister N Rangasamy and AINRC-BJP candidates are ahead in multiple seats, keeping the alliance on course to retain power in the Union Territory.

Big picture emerging

BJP set for major gain in West Bengal

TVK emerges as the biggest disruptor in Tamil Nadu politics

NDA heading for comfortable win in Assam

Puducherry remains safely with NDA

Several senior leaders, including top DMK figures, trailing in early rounds in Tamil Nadu

With counting still underway in pockets, the broad contours of the mandate are already taking shape across states, pointing to one of the most consequential electoral outcomes in recent cycles.

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