If the results of Kerala local body polls are an indication of what is to come, as has been proven over the years, then the LDF government led by Pinarayi Vijayan is on its way out.

Never before, not even in 2010 when the UDF witnessed an unprecedented surge in voter acceptance with more grama panchayats in its kitty (539 against the LDF's 322), was there such a trackable mass voter migration away from the ruling front.

A notable outcome of the polls is the regrouping of the Muslim and Christian community behind the UDF formation. Once the dust of the local body polls settle what could be left behind is the debris of the CPM's elaborate attempts to wean away a section of the Muslim community and the BJP's project to lure the Syro Malabar Church.

It is for the first time that the LDF is left with just one corporation (Kozhikode). In 2010, when there were only five corporations, LDF held on to two. And even in Kozhikode, the only corporation where it is the single largest party, the CPM has fallen five short of the majority figure of 39.

The gains accrued mostly to the UDF. From just three in 2020, the UDF now holds sway in seven district panchayats. From 41, it will now come to power in 54 municipalities. From just one corporation, it has now seized power in four. It will also lord over more grama panchayats than the LDF (505 versus 341).

The BJP did win big in Thiruvananthapuram but otherwise failed to bolster its presence in Kerala in any substantial way. It has just about managed to hold on to Palakkad Municipality. With only 25 seats (down from 28), it is still short of the simple majority mark of 27. It has lost Pandalam Municipality in a humiliation. The municipality it had ruled with 20 seats has now disgraced it with a third position, with only nine seats.

Significantly, even after Suresh Gopi's historic 2024 win, the BJP could not make any gains in Thrissur where the Christian community has a decisive say. It came up zero in grama and block panchayats, and would continue to be a fringe player in all the seven municipalities except Kodungallur where it has retained its number two status but with reduced number of seats (21 down to 18). In Varkala Municipality, where it was in a position to rule had it enlisted the support of Independents in 2020, it has been reduced to a distant second by the LDF.

The only consolation is the party's emergence as the single largest party in Thrippunithura Municipality. Yet by falling short by six seats, a majority has eluded it even there.

The CPM hit the campaign trail calling for continuity. Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan, in all his stump speeches and press conferences, repeated that the massive infrastructure push was possible only because the LDF was elected twice. He asked for more.

Along with development claims, Pinarayi had a social revolution to showcase. A Kerala free of extreme poverty. On top of it came a shower of welfare offerings. Welfare pensions were upped by ₹400 to ₹2000 for 62 lakh beneficiaries. Monthly transfer of ₹1,000 for women, including transwoman, between the ages of 35 and 60, and a stipend of ₹1,000 for job-seeking youths was announced.

These gains were probably undid by the CPM's wild social engineering plans. First there was the Global Ayyappa Sangamam. But soon after, it was revealed that Sabarimala gold was looted right under the watch of the LDF government. Two Travancore Devaswom Board presidents and prominent CPM men -- A Padmakumar and N Vasu -- were arrested.

It was the Sabarimala gold theft that both the UDF and the BJP weaponised against the Pinarayi government. In no time, the government mobilised the support of the leaders of the two biggest Hindu community outfits in Kerala: NSS's Sukumaran Nair and SNDP Yogam's Vellapally Natesan. If the government was under the belief that the support of these community leaders was sufficient counterweight to the suspicions swirling around the handling of the Lord’s possessions, the results show that it was delusional thinking.

The CPM's brand of secularism, too, seems to have received a decisive thumbs down. Realising that it had lost Muslim support after the 2024 Lok Sabha polls, it attempted to brazenly woo the Hindu community. The Global Ayyappa Sangamam was the result of such a thinking. If at all it had generated any swell of approval for the CPM, it was quickly doused by the gold theft scandal.

When the open bid failed, cunning was employed. Towards the late stage of the campaign, after the Chief Minister returned from his trip of the Gulf countries, the CPM dragged to the campaign stage its pet ghoul: Jamaat-e-Islami.

The CPM's Jamaat ploy is a delicate balancing act. On the one hand, it makes a show of segregating the good and the bad Muslim, so that Muslims in general are not hurt. But when the word Jamaat-e-Islami falls on the ears of potentially right-leaning Hindus, the CPM strategists do not want them to exercise any mental segregation.

The censorious words the CM reserves for Jamaat-e-Islami, the party hopes, will be understood by the right-leaning Hindu and Christian as an attack on the Muslim. Flip side of the strategy is, it can encourage Islamophobia.

By then it was clear that the CPM did not mind Muslims being demonised. Or else the CM would not have driven into the Global Ayyappa Sangamam in the company of Vellapally Natesan for whom discharging Muslim hate is as involuntary as exhaling air.

The results, however, demonstrate that the voters have seen through the game. The Christian community in Central Travancore, if the haemorrhage suffered by Kerala Congress (Mani) in Kottayam and Idukki districts is any indication, too seems to have shifted their loyalties back to the UDF.