The first question in Onmanorama's ‘Assembly Poll Survey' series, 'Who do you want as Kerala's next Chief Minister', has thrown up results that might, on first look, seem like an endorsement of the Pinarayi government but on closer scrutiny could reveal a latent anti-incumbency sentiment.

Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan topped the list with 30.62 per cent of the votes. Out of the 6,799 who took part in the survey, 2,082 favoured Pinarayi Vijayan. Close behind were possible chief ministerial candidates in the Congress: V D Satheesan (1889-- 27.78%) and Shashi Tharoor (1794 -- 26.39%).

The other two CPM candidates in the fray attracted far less numbers: K K Shailaja (734 -- 10.8%) and P Rajeev (300 -- 4.41%). The poll ran for seven days, from February 11 to 18.

In pre-election surveys, serving chief ministers have an edge because of their high visibility. In Pinarayi Vijayan's case, he has been Chief Minister for nearly a decade and the position has become synonymous with him in Kerala.

That he is the undisputed leader of the LDF formation would also have weighed heavily in Vijayan's favour. Whoever wanted the LDF to return to power perhaps would have chosen Vijayan. It is firmly believed that Vijayan will be the default CM choice if the LDF returns to power for a record third time.

Therefore, more than for the individual, a vote for Vijayan can be read as a vote for the LDF. This could be why even a popular leader like Shailaja and a high-performing minister like P Rajeev fared poorly.

The voters were asked to pick the best CM candidate but their choice would not have been exercised independent of their larger political preferences.

In other words, even if a voter has misgivings about Pinarayi Vijayan, she would still choose him because what is of paramount importance to her is an LDF victory. At this stage, Vijayan symbolises the LDF.

Voters who chose Shailaja or Rajeev are possibly those who find Vijayan utterly unacceptable but still want the LDF to return to power. The numbers for Shailaja and Rajeev, therefore, may not be accurate indicators of their acceptability.

Unlike the CPM, there are too many contenders for the top post in the Congress. Also, in Congress, there is no leader like Vijayan who towers far above the rest. As a result, those who want the UDF in power can freely choose between Satheesan and Tharoor.

In the Onmanorama poll, Satheesan and Tharoor are near level in their suitability for the post of the CM. Together, they have cornered 54.17 per cent of the total votes polled. But even the three CPM leaders together could poll just 45.83 per cent.

If it is assumed that the votes for Satheesan and Tharoor were cast by those who want to see the UDF in power, it is a sign of anti-incumbency.

Interestingly, the top three leaders who won more than 25 per cent of the votes in Onmanorama Poll are also the most visible leaders in Kerala now.

The Chief Minister's smiling visage has taken over billboards and buses across Kerala. And news in Kerala revolves around the CM. Shailaja and Rajeev are nowhere to be seen in LDF's promotional materials.

In the run up to the Assembly polls, Opposition leader V D Satheesan is trying to construct a mythical aura around him. The 'Puthuyuga Yatra' along the length and breadth of Kerala, and his riveting speeches along the way, has given Satheesan greater noticeability.

As for Tharoor, forget the charming English speeches he makes all over the globe, a visual of him in a wheelchair is enough to gather millions of views.

Moral: More the visibility more the acceptability.