Onmanorama pollmeter tracks 12 closely-fought constituencies across different phases of campaign: Nemom, Manjeshwar, Palakkad, Kunnathunad, Pala, Kottarakkara, Peravoor, Thripunithura, Ambalappuzha, Taliparamba, Payyanur and Nattika. This is the second part on Taliparamba where Onmanorama captures emerging trends from ground-level feed. Read the first part here.

Kannur: The contest in Taliparamba is tightening in ways the CPM has not had to contend with for decades. The UDF has stretched its campaign advantage on the ground, but whether that translates into votes depends almost entirely on one variable: how much of the simmering discontent within the Left actually breaks ranks on polling day. 

The CPM’s candidate, P K Shyamala, wife of party state secretary M V Govindan, continues to hold the lead on paper. But even within the party’s core zones, the depth of unease over her candidature is evident, though rarely expressed openly. 

At an autorickshaw stand in Taliparamba town, four drivers, all CPM sympathisers, initially dismissed talk of any undercurrent. But once the others dispersed, one of them lowered his voice and said: “I will vote for T K Govindan,” he said, referring to rebel candidate, and CPM's former district secretariat member. “But if I say that openly, I won’t be able to park my auto here from tomorrow,” he said, capturing the silent hesitation that runs through sections of the cadre. 

In Malappattam, T K Govindan’s home panchayat and among the CPM’s strongest bastions, the official line remains firm. Former panchayat president Chandran E insisted that none of the CPM’s 600-odd members had shifted loyalties. “There were differences over the candidate, yes. But once Govindan entered the fray against the party, everyone has closed ranks,” he said. It is hard not to read between the lines. He said the Congress has 6,000 votes in the panchayat, and it may barely get an extra 1,500 votes. 

That assertion is being tested on the ground. 

UDF workers point to incidents they say reflect both nervousness and pushback. In Adoor ward -- the lone UDF-held ward in Malappattam -- five Congress campaign boards put up on Tuesday evening were vandalised within hours. “We circulated the visuals across the constituency. This CPM violence will hurt them,” said former ward member and Congressman Balakrishnan P. 

Across the constituency, the UDF’s reading is consistent: resentment against Shyamala exists, but it is tightly contained within the CPM’s organisational discipline. “In two weeks, what has become clear is the disagreement within the CPM, and the clearer message is there's no space to express it,” said Joseph Uzhunnupara, Congress's former member of Chapparapadava Panchayat. “The question is how much of that will convert into votes.” 

For the UDF, the 2021 election was already its strongest showing in decades. It pushed its tally to around 70,000 votes from 50,000, cutting M V Govindan’s winning margin to 22,000. But to convert momentum into victory, the UDF needs something it cannot fully measure, a breach in the Left’s vote. "This is our best opening in decades, but we have to draw at least 10,000 votes from the Left. That is the only way to turn the tables,” Uzhunnupara said. “It’s a big number but not an impossible one.”