Onmanorama poll meter tracks 12 closely-fought constituencies across different phases of campaign: Nemom, Manjeshwar, Palakkad, Kunnathunad, Pala, Kottarakkara, Peravoor, Thripunithura, Ambalappuzha, Taliparamba, Payyanur and Nattika. This is the final part on Manjeshwar, where Onmanorama captures emerging trends from ground-level feed. Click to read the first and second parts here.

Even in the last lap, Manjeshwar looks like a close fight, with several factors at play. But this time, the Indian Union Muslim League's sitting MLA A K M Ashraf may break free from the narrow victories of recent years, to trounce the BJP's K Surendran for the fourth time in the constituency.

Whether as a strategy or a matter of realism, district BJP leaders, in the last lap, rate their chances higher in neighbouring Kasaragod constituency than in Manjeshwar. These are the only two constituencies in Kerala where the IUML and the BJP are in a direct fight. They assess that the gap between them is just 0.44 percentage points in Manjeshwar, while in Kasaragod, it is nearly nine percentage points.

“In Manjeshwar, we simply don’t have the numbers,” a BJP district secretary admitted. The party’s hope rests on variables such as overseas voters not turning up for the UDF and SDPI, which pulled out of the race, voting for the LDF candidate K R Jayananda. “If NRI voters don’t turn up, we may have an edge,” he said.

But that calculation cuts both ways. While fewer flights and steep ticket prices, ₹1 lakh to ₹1.4 lakh for a round trip, may keep blue-collar NRI workers away from the polls in Kerala, the UDF believes their absence will be offset by those who would otherwise travel abroad for vacations or for Umrah, the pilgrimage to Makkah in Saudi Arabia.

The BJP is also banking on a section of minority votes drifting towards the LDF. But in Manjeshwar, even that is uncertain. The LDF, which typically draws around 25,000 to 30,000 Muslim votes out of its roughly 40,000-vote base, has effectively stepped back from the contest this time, framing it as a fight to block the BJP. That weakens any possibility of anti-UDF, anti-Ashraf consolidation benefiting Surendran.

There is unease within the BJP ranks, too. Some leaders privately concede that fielding Surendran in Manjeshwar may have consolidated UDF votes. An alternative, low-key candidate such as the District president M L Ashwini might have avoided such polarisation, they said, even in the last lap.

There is also talk of limited anti-incumbency against A K M Ashraf among sections of Muslim voters, but not at a scale that clearly translates into votes for the BJP.

Ashraf, meanwhile, has amplified his campaign. Karnataka Chief Minister Siddaramaiah campaigned for him at Vorkady panchayat, near the border, backing the Congress’s “five guarantees” pitch. Ashraf himself has publicly claimed a 15,000-vote victory margin. His confidence draws from the UDF’s sweep in local bodies, all eight panchayats and four district panchayat divisions.

Yet, beyond campaign optics, the numbers remain decisive. In a constituency with 2.3 lakh voters, Hindus, the core voters of the BJP, comprise only 93,000; 1.23 lakh voters are Muslims, and 7,000 are Christians.

In 2021, the BJP received around 65,000 votes. Even in a best-case scenario with 80% to 82% polling and with 80% consolidation of Hindu votes, small inroads into Muslim and Christian segments, Surendran’s tally would still hover around that mark. “We are sure of only the 65,000 votes,” the district secretary said.

The UDF, on the other hand, starts from a broader base. With Muslim voters numbering around 1.3 lakh, even a 65% consolidation, combined with modest support from other communities, pushes its tally well beyond 70,000.

Crucially, the LDF is no longer a full player here. Its candidate, K R Jayananda, is focused largely on retaining CPM's traditional supporters. But this time, a sizable section of minorities is expected to drift towards the IUML. That would widen the gap further.

In the final stretch, Ashraf has also revived the emotive issue of the Union government starting a toll plaza on NH 66 at Kumbla, 20 km from another toll gate at Talapady on the border. Though Surendran secured its removal ahead of landing in Manjeshwar as a candidate, the narrative gaining ground is that it came only after Ashraf’s indefinite agitation. The MLA mocks the BJP for not removing a similar temporary toll gate at Surathkal near Mangaluru.

Ashraf maintains that Manjeshwar is a secular constituency, and in a first-past-the-post system, votes are not always cast to elect a candidate but sometimes to block the least-preferred one. So, even if SDPI votes come his way, it need not indicate a truce with the IUML, but rather an electoral convenience to keep the BJP out. To top it, the Union government pushed the amendment to the Foreign Contribution Regulation Act (FCRA) in the middle of the campaign to make the Christian community wary. Taking these factors together, Surendran would need nothing short of a miracle to pull off a victory in Manjeshwar.
Click to read the first and second parts here.