Onmanorama pollmeter tracks 12 closely-fought constituencies across different phases of campaign: Nemom, Manjeshwar, Palakkad, Kunnathunad, Pala, Kottarakkara, Peravoor, Thripunithura, Ambalappuzha, Taliparamba, Payyanur and Nattika. This is the second part on Manjeshwar where Onmanorama captures emerging trends from ground-level feed. Read the first part here.

Kasaragod: The contest in Manjeshwar appears to be tilting in favour of the United Democratic Front (UDF) candidate and sitting MLA A K M Ashraf, who is gradually pulling ahead in what initially looked like a close fight with BJP’s K Surendran.

A combination of factors, including the waning traction of the LDF candidate and unease within sections of the Christian community over proposed changes to the Foreign Contribution (Regulation) Act (FCRA), seems to be shaping the contest.

The BJP, sources said, is attempting to reach out to the Konkani Christian community, including visiting the parishes on Easter Sunday, to address concerns about the proposed FCRA amendments. However, community-level discussions appear to have already taken place. Representatives from 11 parishes met last week to assess the electoral situation, with participants indicating a need for a “collective response”.

The proposed amendments to the Foreign Contribution (Regulation) law seek to significantly tighten state control over foreign-funded organisations by allowing the government to take over and even liquidate assets created from foreign funds if an NGO’s licence lapses or is cancelled, introducing automatic cancellation for non-renewal, expanding legal liability to all governing members, and imposing strict timelines on the use of foreign contributions. These provisions have raised concerns within the Church.

The Konkani Christian community, estimated at around 7,000 voters in the constituency, has traditionally leaned towards the UDF at an individual level. This time, there are indications of a more coordinated political response, which could consolidate that support further.

The BJP, in turn, is foregrounding concerns around a piece of legislation, the Malayalam Language Act, 2025, which seeks to make Malayalam the only official language across administration, education, and the judiciary. While the bill includes exemptions and safeguards for linguistic minorities, the BJP is highlighting apprehensions in border constituencies such as Manjeshwar, where non-Malayalam-speaking communities are significant.

Even so, the LDF appears to be the biggest casualty in the shifting dynamics. Its candidate, K R Jayananda, the CPM's district secretariat member, is  struggling to retain the party’s traditional vote base. Voters said there could be a possible erosion of support, they conservatively pegged it at 10,000 votes or 25%, driven both by limited personal appeal and dissatisfaction within sections of the cadre. The party itself has made it clear that Jayananda was fielded instead of Shanavas Padhoor, now contesting in Kasaragod assembly constituency, to prevent the splitting of the Muslim votes.

A substantial portion of the LDF’s support base in the constituency comprises Muslim voters.

The Muslim Coordination Committee, a collective of various Muslim organisations and political parties in Kerala, has already forced the SDPI to withdraw its candidate in Manjeshwar.

Any consolidation of this segment behind the UDF could decisively alter the outcome. Early signals suggest movement in that direction, though it remains to be seen how firmly this trend holds.

Daily issues, including drinking water shortages, limited higher education options, lack of tertiary healthcare, and weak employment generation, have, for now, receded from the centre of the campaign.

The UDF camp is confident. For the first time, it enters the election after sweeping all eight grama panchayats and the four district panchayat divisions within the constituency. The BJP is expected to lead in panchayats such as Enmakaje, Meenja and Paivalige. But UDF leaders believe their advantage in Mangalpady, the largest local body, will erase the BJP's lead. The leads from Kumbla, Vorkady, Puthige and Manjeshwar could consolidate the UDF's position.

There is also an administrative backdrop to the election. The Special Intensive Revision of the electoral roll appears to have worked in favour of the UDF. "People are coming to us asking about their serial numbers and polling stations. There is a fear that they must vote this time to retain their citizenship,” said a Congress leader from Vorkady.

For now, the race seems to be moving away from a cliff-edge contest.