In the week between April 13 and 18, when the summer heat shot up to dizzying heights, daily power consumption in Kerala has behaved in the most unprecedented fashion.

At the start of this week, it reached its highest level this year. A couple of days later, it broke a record set more than two years ago, and the very next day, it surmounted the new record it had set.

And in the same week, daily peak demand crossed 6000 MW on four days, three days in a row. Forget once, peak hour consumption in Kerala has never ever touched 6000 MW before this April.

Power consumption in Kerala recorded the year's highest on April 13, at 112.16 million units (MUs). At that point, the all-time record was 115.95 MU recorded on May 3, 2024. Three days later, on April 17, daily consumption crossed the May 3, 2024 mark, and set a new all-time record of 116.11 MU.

The record evaporated faster than a drop of water in the height of summer. The very next day, on April 18, it scaled a new peak, 117.6 MU.

To get a sense of the dramatic change in consumption in Kerala, turn to the average daily consumption during the corresponding period last year. It was just about 90 MU.

Reflecting this surge in consumption, peak demand in Kerala crossed 6000 MW on four days: April 14 - 6016 MW; April 16 - 6028 MW; April 17 - 6086 MW; April 18 - 6037 MW.

In all these days, the peak was reached between 10.30 pm and 10.45 pm, and this is also the time slot when voltage drops are happening across Kerala, particularly in North Kerala. Sagacious use - like pushing the electric vehicle charging to post-midnight or shutting off the AC during this time - could temper power use.

The immediate consequence of the consumption surge is the overworking of hydel projects. At the start of the week, hydel stations together generated 20 MU. By April 18, it was dialled up to 25 MU. Last year, during the first half of April, hydel stations generated just about 10-11 MU on an average.

Result: water levels in dams have plummeted. Last year same time, storage in dams was nearly 45 per cent. At this mid-point of summer, the storage has gone below 34 per cent. With the prognosis of the southwest monsoon not looking sunny, KSEB could be staring at a serious power crisis.

But hydel stations are just part of the problem. Even if hydel stations are worked to the full, they cannot generate more than 25 per cent of Kerala's daily requirement. The share of wind and solar constitutes just about 2 per cent. At the moment, Kerala does not draw any power from thermal stations like NTPC - Rajiv Gandhi Combined Cycle Power Plant, Haripad.

Therefore, nearly 85 per cent of Kerala's needs are secured mostly from central generating stations,11-12 million units from private power producers at an average of ₹3.60 per unit under long-term power purchase agreements, and the rest at a relatively high cost of ₹5 or more per unit from the market.

Considering the April surge and the shortage it could induce in the short term, the KSEB is planning to procure from the term-ahead market (TAM) platform, which allows utilities like the KSEB to buy electricity 90 days in advance. The power utility has sought the State Electricity Regulatory Commission's nod for this.

"In view of the increasing power demand and the prevailing consumption pattern during the ensuing summer months, mitigation of a possible power shortage may require procurement of peak power from the short-term market, particularly through TAM, instead of attempting procurement through the day-ahead market (DAM) where uncertainty prevails," the KSEB said in its petition to the Commission.

The KSEB has sought the Commission's approval for a ceiling rate of ₹10 per unit with a 5-paise margin for the TAM procurement. The procurement is subject to a "maximum limit of 250 megawatts (MW) during critical periods from mid-April to the first half of May".