When the CPM failed to gain expected results in the local body polls in 2025, the party state secretariat asserted that it wasn’t an assessment of the state government. The party leaders quickly theorised the failure as an aftereffect of UDF’s liaison with the communal forces.

The CPM can’t afford such an explanation if things go south on Monday when the votes are counted. The CPM granted exceptions in term conditions and fielded 56 out of 62 MLAs in the 2026 assembly elections. 

Except K Krishnankutty, all the 20 Ministers were given seats. The message to voters was clear: you may assess the performance of our MLAs and ministers and give a third term. Any adverse verdict would mean that the people have rated the governance poorly. 

Between 2016 and 2021, the LDF increased its vote share from 43.35% to 45.28%. It is this spike in vote share that LDF is hopeful about. 

The UDF, on the other hand, engineered the campaign around the alleged CPM-BJP deal in various constituencies like Palakkad, Kasaragod, Manjeshwar, Ettumanoor, Konni, Ranni, Chengannur and Thripunithura. The rash of statements targeting the CPM for its alleged deal with the BJP deflected the LDF’s claims of good governance and development feats.

The CPM, which kicked off the campaign by declaring the first round of candidates on the day of the election announcement, was left grappling with the deal allegations.

The Congress can ill-afford another loss in the assembly elections. Although the party regrouped after the candidates were declared, the chaos that erupted just before finalising seats showed how fragile the projected sense of unity looked. 

Exit polls arrived as a booster dose, but the Congress and its allies must significantly increase their vote share from 39% across different districts to wrest power.

It has to plug the 2021 deficit in as many as 11 districts. LDF had won more seats than the UDF in 11 districts and increased its votes in 12 districts in 2021.

For the NDA, the results will reveal how crucial its decisions were regarding seat allocation and choice of ally. The BJP forged an alliance with the Twenty20 and faced flak for parting with seats like Kodungallur and Thripunithura. BJP had finished second in nine constituencies in 2021. 

As per the CPM’s review report, BJP votes were transferred to the UDF in many places in 2021, and it was decided to pay more attention to the constituencies where the BJP had reached second place. 

BJP state president Rajeev Chandrasekhar’s campaign centred on development which had yielded results in Thiruvananthapuram corporation, also caused division within the party.

The election results will also decide the political future of some of the leaders like Aisha Potty, G Sudhakaran, V Kunhikrishnan and T K Govindan, who severed ties with the CPM and contested polls either as UDF candidates or UDF independents. There are also other names like Basil Paul, Sabu K Jacob, who left Congress and joined Kerala Congress(M) to contest as LDF candidates.