Kalpetta: Untimely rains across Brazil’s coffee-growing regions during the June–July harvest season, along with forecasts of continued rainfall in the coming weeks, have brought cheer to Indian coffee farmers. Robusta coffee prices, which had been declining, suddenly climbed by up to ₹10 per kg, triggering a wave of selling in the market.

Coffee prices had started easing by the end of May as markets anticipated a large Brazilian crop. However, the recent spell of rain has raised fresh concerns over harvest progress and supply. The rains could also affect the quality of the beans.

This has caused the prices to go up, and the surge has revitalised the coffee market in South India, including Wayanad in Kerala, Coorg in Karnataka, and the Nilgiris in Tamil Nadu. There is also a possibility that weather conditions could impact next year’s crop.

Market players also anticipate the possibility of frost in July, as similar conditions were observed after harvest in the past two years.

Rural markets witnessed selling spree
According to Clinto Jose, a coffee trader at Erumad on the Kerala–Tamil Nadu border, farmers initially engaged in a selling spree, but many are now holding back stocks as prices continue to rise. “There are rumours that prices may go up to ₹220,” he said, adding that global reports also indicate an upward trend.

The impact of untimely rains would be more severe in Brazil, as the country focuses on bulk production, said Tomy Mathew of Elements Organic, an exporting firm based in Kozhikode that works closely with the Fair-Trade Alliance Kerala. “Their drying process is mainly sun drying, so rain affects the quality of harvested coffee, causes berry drop, slows harvesting, and leads to decay,” he pointed out.

Meanwhile, the Indian coffee industry was facing a price crash in robusta coffee. The price of robusta cherry, which reached ₹284 per kg during the 2025 harvest season, fell to ₹214 during March–April and further declined to ₹195 per kg by the end of May, according to market sources.

Interestingly, the main reason for the earlier price crash was projections of a bumper Brazilian Arabica harvest, estimated to increase by 12 per cent, to 71.4–75.9 million bags in the 2026–27 financial year.

Wayanad Coffee Growers Association director Prasanth Rajesh, a planter and coffee processor, said that if frost is severe in July, next year’s crop could be affected. He added that temperatures in early July are expected to be around 8 degrees, and if they drop further to 4 degrees, frost conditions may develop.

However, experts caution that the current price surge may be temporary. If weather conditions improve, harvesting will resume, supplies will increase, and prices could decline again.

Super El Nino phenomenon also in the queue  

According to Dr George Daniel, former deputy director at the Coffee Research Station, Chundel, the current market movement is only a short-term impact. He also pointed to uncertainty in Brazil’s coffee sector and noted that Super El Niño conditions during the September–October flowering season could affect production for 2026–27, with risks of erratic floods, droughts, and temperature fluctuations.

During the 2025 harvest season, coffee prices had seen a historic rise. Robusta cherry, which was around ₹80 per kg in 2023–24, surged to an all-time high of ₹284 per kg during January–March 2025. Farmers, especially medium and small holders, sold heavily when prices crossed ₹250 per kg.

India produces only a small share of global coffee, while Brazil accounts for a major portion. Global coffee production is estimated at around 170 million 60-kg bags, of which Brazil produces about 56 million bags, while India produces around 5 million bags. Brazil alone contributes nearly one-third of global coffee output.

In Kerala, Wayanad is the leading coffee-producing district, with around 60,000 farmers and an annual production of approximately 60,000 metric tons, mainly Robusta.