The Gaza ceasefire deal, inked five days before Donald Trump assumed charge as the next US president, was unprecedented historically. Outgoing presidents with diminished leverage are normally unable to achieve diplomatic success. President Bill Clinton’s Camp David summit on July 25, 2000, failed months before the November presidential election.

The current diplomatic success has been due to, as President Joe Biden said, despite Trump claiming sole credit, their “speaking as one team” . A number of factors have facilitated Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's acceptance of a US proposal, which has been on the table since last May. A weakened Hamas, too, has shown flexibility, although now led in Gaza by Muhammad Sinwar, the younger brother of late Yahya Sinwar, who masterminded the October 7, 2023 attacks on Israel. 

Netanyahu has many possible motives for ending hostilities. For one, he has already greatly weakened Hamas, Hezbollah and Iran. Additionally, the Assad regime in Syria has been ejected, denying Iran a land bridge to Lebanon. He has used the strategic uncertainty in Syria to occupy the crucial demilitarised zone in Golan Heights.

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There is little more he can achieve militarily as the unbridled killing of civilians, especially children, has damaged his international reputation and compelled the International Court of Justice to issue warrants for his arrest for genocide. Netanyahu has been unable to eliminate Hamas, as the killing of leaders and foot soldiers does not end movements. 

A person holds up a sign as he attends a protest march to demand a deal to bring every Israeli hostage home in Tel Aviv on January 15, 2025. Photo: Reuters/Ronen Zvulun
A person holds up a sign as he attends a protest march to demand a deal to bring every Israeli hostage home in Tel Aviv on January 15, 2025. Photo: Reuters/Ronen Zvulun

Moreover, he calculates that Trump’s unconditional support cannot be assumed. Reportedly, Trump’s Middle East special envoy Steve Witkoff, the incoming president’s real estate buddy from New York, met the Israeli prime minister on January 11 to convey Trump’s diktat that the Gaza war must end before his inauguration on January 20.

Witkoff has had sovereign funds of Qatar and the UAE bail him out in property deals. Moreover, Trump created the Abraham Accords, normalising Israel’s relations with the UAE, Bahrain and Morocco. Saudis have held back, especially post-Gaza war, insisting Israel must first accept a path to Palestinian statehood and the US give security guarantees as conditions precedent. 

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Netanyahu knows about the Trump family's financial and business links with Gulf ruling families and their sovereign funds. He also realises that Trump 2.0 may differ from the earlier pro-Israel version as he nurses a grouse about Netanyahu greeting Biden after his win in 2020. 

The three-phase 42-day ceasefire deal involves the release of 33 hostages, out of 100-odd. Israeli defence forces will withdraw east of Gaza and permit much increased humanitarian assistance. Israel, in turn, will release many times greater numbers of Palestinian prisoners. What follows is still uncertain. The Israeli cabinet should approve it, though the ruling coalition may collapse as two far-right parties reject the ceasefire and seek annexation of the West Bank and perhaps even Gaza. Netanyahu is, however, more popular today than the months after October 7, and thus more capable of facing elections. 

A man waves Palestinian flags as Palestinians react to news on a ceasefire deal with Israel, in Deir Al-Balah in the central Gaza Strip, January 15, 2025. Photo: Reuters/Ramadan Abed
A man waves Palestinian flags as Palestinians react to news on a ceasefire deal with Israel, in Deir Al-Balah in the central Gaza Strip, January 15, 2025. Photo: Reuters/Ramadan Abed

Peace in West Asia suits India due to the widened conflict’s threat lifting from the Gulf, with nearly 9 million strong Indian diaspora and trade and energy links. India would also hope that the normalisation of Saudi-Israeli relations will allow the India-Middle-East-Europe-Corridor (IMEC) to kick off. Iran can be a spoiler unless engaged by the US. But the restoration of trust deficit will be slow, after the Israeli massacres of Palestinian civilians.
(The writer is India's former ambassador to Iran and the UAE)

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