Onmanorama pollmeter tracks 12 closely-fought constituencies across different phases of campaign: Nemom, Manjeshwar, Palakkad, Kunnathunad, Pala, Kottarakkara, Peravoor, Thripunithura, Ambalappuzha, Taliparamba, Payyanur and Nattika. This is the second part on Peravoor where Onmanorama captures emerging trends from ground-level feed. Read the first part here. 

Kannur: The electoral battle between KPCC president Sunny Joseph and CPM’s K K Shailaja in Peravoor has intensified with the Congress losing the initial upper hand. The momentum is gradually shifting towards Shailaja. Crucially, every vote the NDA manages to pull in is likely to tilt the balance further in her favour, making this a tightly contested and increasingly unpredictable race.

In the second phase of the campaign, Shailaja has turned her attention to crucial grama panchayats such as Aralam, Kanichar, Kelakam, and Kottiyur—areas long considered Congress strongholds. The UDF continues to rely on these pockets to expand its margin, especially after Sunny Joseph’s relatively narrow victory of 3,172 votes against CPM’s Sakeer Hussain in 2021. However, recurring man-animal conflicts have created strong local resentment, making anti-incumbency a serious factor that Shailaja must overcome to make gains in these regions. 

The stand of the Kerala Independent Farmers Association (KIFA) is also emerging as a key element in the contest. Indicating that their support will hinge on policy commitments, KIFA leaders have underlined the urgency of addressing wildlife-related issues. “We are awaiting the release of the election manifestos of both the LDF and the UDF. We want to know which front is considering our demand for a solution to man-animal conflicts. In Peravoor also, our stand will be crucial for both fronts,” said Alex Ozhukayil of KIFA. Their inclination is seen as favourable to the UDF at this stage, posing an added challenge for Shailaja.

 The UDF, meanwhile, is actively promoting a narrative that a victory for Sunny Joseph, coupled with a UDF government, could see him become Forest Minister. This campaign draws strength from the Congress ‘I’ group factor, which has traditionally held sway over the Forest portfolio in UDF governments. Leaders are reminding voters that K P Noorudeen, a former Peravoor MLA, held the post between 1982 and 1987. This messaging appears to be resonating, particularly in forest-fringe areas where governance on wildlife issues is a major concern. 

On the campaign front, both alliances are intensifying their efforts. The Congress has already brought in senior leaders like AICC general secretary K C Venugopal, while the CPM is expecting high-profile visits, including from Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan, to boost Shailaja’s prospects. After a relatively slow start in grassroots campaigning, the LDF has now stepped up its outreach, focusing on door-to-door visits. 

The NDA’s performance remains a decisive variable in this election. In 2021, its candidate secured 9,155 votes—only marginally higher than its 2016 tally. This time, however, Paily Vathyath is once again contesting as the BDJS candidate, with a far more aggressive campaign backed by the organisational strength of the BJP and RSS. Even a moderate increase in the NDA’s vote share over previous elections could significantly dent the UDF’s chances, thereby indirectly strengthening Shailaja’s position in a closely fought contest. 

At the same time, the Congress is hopeful of consolidating minority votes, which had partially shifted towards the LDF in 2021 due to Sakeer Hussain’s candidature. The UDF believes these votes could return to its fold this time, potentially offsetting losses caused by the NDA’s rise. 

With shifting ground realities, targeted campaigns in key panchayats and the NDA’s aggressive push to expand its vote base, Peravoor is witnessing a complex electoral battle where even small swings could decisively shape the outcome.