Onmanorama pollmeter tracks 12 closely-fought constituencies across different phases of campaign: Nemom, Manjeshwar, Palakkad, Kunnathunad, Pala, Kottarakkara, Peravoor, Thripunithura, Ambalappuzha, Taliparamba, Payyanur and Nattika. This is the second part on Pala (published on April 2) where Onmanorama captures emerging trends from ground-level feed. Read the first part here.

The ground is set for a closely fought triangular contest among the UDF, LDF and NDA candidates in Pala. Away from the bustle of the town centre, the quiet village of Pravithanam- home to UDF candidate Mani C Kappen- echoes the larger political mood of the constituency. 

The fight is increasingly seen as a neck-and-neck contest between the Kerala Congress (M) Chairman Jose K Mani and Mani C Kappen, yet all eyes are also on the performance of the BJP candidate Shone George, as his votes could determine the results in Pala. 

Joshy, a grocery shop owner near Pravithanam, captures the shifting sentiment. "It has always been between the LDF and the UDF that the power was shared. Look at Pala, there is no change anywhere. This time, I will vote for a change," he said, adding that Shone represents that alternative. "I'm not a supporter of any party. I voted for K M Mani all these years," he added, reflecting a section of independent voters who could prove decisive in a constituency long dominated by the three fronts. 

A sizeable section of voters in Pala remains unaffiliated to any political front, and the BJP is seeking to tap into this space by projecting Shone as a young alternative. Banking on an aggressive campaign- marked by a visible presence through posters, announcements and social media- the party is attempting to create the impression of Shone as an omnipresent contender. 

In a departure from the BJP's conventional pitch, Shone's speeches have largely steered clear of religious rhetoric or attacks on opponents. Instead, they centre on a key concern in the constituency- the migration of youth. He tries to position himself as a development-oriented candidate- one who can leverage Central schemes to revamp Pala. 

His familial connections- as the son of P C George- are also expected to bring in votes. "The votes Shone secures could prove decisive," said a UDF insider. 

Despite this, there is little expectation among local residents that Shone will finish above second place. Even some BJP supporters privately concede this, though the party continues to project confidence in public. 

This dynamic works in tandem with a strong undercurrent of anti-incumbency against the Left government in the constituency, with a majority of voters expressing dissatisfaction with Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan's administration. However, LDF candidate Jose K Mani appears to have partially insulated himself from this sentiment. 

"The current government is not great. The CM's style is very disturbing. But Jose K Mani has nothing to do with it," said Usha, a voter in Pravithanam. Even so, its impact could still be felt on polling day, potentially eroding the slight advantage he held at the start of the campaign. 

Jose, meanwhile, has stepped up his campaign, launching a second round of house visits and completing a series of roadshows across Pala. Paul Abraham, a KCM leader, said feedback from the ground has been encouraging and expressed confidence in a clear victory. 

The UDF, on the other hand, has amped up the campaign visibility- not just through posters and publicity, but through Mani C Kappen's direct connect with voters. "Mani is confident. He meets people, listens to them, and connects easily. His focus on house visits and family meetings is helping him," a KCM insider told Onmanorama, highlighting the contrast in styles between Kappen and Jose. He added that Mani C Kappen's approach mirrors that of K M Mani, pointing out that Jose still has ground to cover to match his father's style.

 The UDF camp is hopeful that Mani C Kappen can pull through despite the intensity of the contest. "Even during the strong LDF wave in 2021, Kappen won with a margin of 15,000 votes," said Prakash, a Congress worker in Pala. 

With both fronts expecting Shone to cut into their vote share, the contest could tighten significantly.
Read the first part here.