Onmanorama pollmeter tracks 12 closely-fought constituencies across different phases of campaign: Nemom, Manjeshwar, Palakkad, Kunnathunad, Pala, Kottarakkara, Peravoor, Thripunithura, Ambalappuzha, Taliparamba, Payyanur and Nattika. This is the final part on Pala, where Onmanorama captures emerging trends from ground-level feed. Read the first and second parts here.

Pala: The people of Pala wish for a change. In the first two weeks of the campaign, all three fronts promised it in different ways. However, after Easter, an outsider to Pala, Poonjar’s BJP candidate P C George, seems to have flipped the narrative. 

George’s recent controversial remarks about the Christian community, stating that they have benefited from the BJP’s generosity, have triggered unease among voters. The comments are now being widely discussed locally and could dent the support base of his son, BJP-backed candidate Shone George. 

“The people are discussing P C George’s comments. It portrays the community badly. Even those who were considering Shone may now rethink,” said James, a shopowner in Pala.

 The unease has been compounded by the proposed FCRA Bill (Foreign Contribution (Regulation) Act), which has drawn sharp criticism from the Church and the faithful, further affecting the BJP’s outreach in this Christian-majority constituency. 

Taken together, these developments appear to have slowed Shone George’s early outreach, indirectly benefiting UDF candidate Mani C Kappen. Adding to this is a strong anti-incumbency sentiment against the Left government, denting the prospects of LDF candidate and Kerala Congress (M) chairman Jose K Mani. 

“The rule under Pinarayi Vijayan has been disappointing. We don’t have any good opinion about the LDF,” said Jose Tom, a resident of Meenachil panchayat. Many shopowners, auto drivers, teachers, and other residents Onmanorama spoke to echoed this sentiment, though some did not directly hold Jose K Mani responsible. 

“Pinarayi’s rule is obviously bad, but we will vote for Jose K Mani,” said M Chandran, a native of Palakkad in Meenachil panchayat. Even though many voters want a change from the LDF government, some believe Jose could bring development that they feel was stalled during Kappen’s tenure. “After Mani sir, no significant development happened in Pala. Jose is a visionary, and he will change Pala,” Chandran added. 

Another factor working against Jose is dissent among grassroots CPM workers. “I don’t believe common CPM workers will vote for Jose. There is strong resentment towards the Mani family,” said George Mathew, a Meenachil native. James also echoed this view, noting that in 2021, Kappen benefited from such votes. “Kappen still maintains a strong connection with grassroots CPM workers. It could be decisive,” he added. 

However, Kappen too faces challenges, particularly the perception that little development has taken place in Pala since 2019. The UDF counters this by pointing to improved road connectivity to regions such as Ilaveezhapoonchira and Illikkal Kallu, now popular tourist destinations. “There has been considerable development in the past five years, but Jose K Mani tried to stall several projects,” said George Pious, a Congress leader. 

The UDF is also pitching a broader call for change, projecting that the UDF government is the alternative and seeking votes for Kappen. The strong anti-incumbency sentiment, along with dissatisfaction among sections of the Christian community towards BJP leaders, could work in his favour. 

This is where the BJP’s support appears to have eroded. Shone had positioned himself as a candidate of change and development, promising to channel central projects to Pala. Many voters initially saw him as an alternative—a young Christian candidate outside both the UDF and LDF. 

“We want change, and we will support Shone,” said Babu, an auto driver in Poovarani. He added that the FCRA issue has not yet become a major talking point among common voters in Pala, and that many still favour a candidate outside both traditional fronts. 

But recent developments have significantly eroded the base he once enjoyed, and even a section of Church support that was earlier in his favour could now tilt towards Jose K Mani or Kappen. He was expected to secure around 25,000 to 30,000 votes, but now his performance hinges on how voters react on April 9 to the controversy triggered by his father and the party. 

For Jose K Mani, the voting day carries added significance as it marks the seventh death anniversary of his father, K M Mani, and his own political future is at stake. After his defeat to Kappen in 2021, he needs a victory to cement his influence within the party and in Kerala politics. With Roshy Augustine emerging stronger within the party, a loss in Pala could prove costly, and Jose appears to be doing everything possible to secure a win. 

Kappen, on the other hand, seems to have the momentum shifting in his favour without much effort. Anti-incumbency and the BJP’s polarising politics are well understood by voters in Pala, and his narrative—that development would follow if the UDF returns to power—appears to be resonating. For now, Kappen holds an edge, but independent voters in this traditionally UDF-leaning constituency—long shaped by the singular influence of K M Mani—could prove decisive in determining the final outcome.
 Read the first and second parts here.