Kozhikode: Long seen as decisive in Kerala politics, North Kerala region once again holds the key to the final outcome of Kerala elections as polling concluded with the turnout touching almost 80% across districts by evening.

For decades, Kerala witnessed altering power equations between the Left Democratic Front (LDF) and the United Democratic Front (UDF). That pattern was broken in 2021 when the LDF secured a historic second consecutive term, driven largely by sweeping gains in northern districts like Kozhikode and Kannur. The Congress, the main constituent of the UDF, was reduced to just a handful of seats across the Malabar belt then. The UDF’s stable vote base in Malappuram had prevented a complete LDF sweep in Malabar in the previous election.

In 2021, the north Kerala districts of Kasaragod, Kannur, Kozhikode, Malappuram, Wayanad and Palakkad recorded an average voter turnout of 78%, and this time the final figure, which is expected to be revised by the Election Commission tomorrow, is likely to cross 80%.

With Kozhikode district posting the highest turnout in the state (81%), LDF, UDF and the NDA have claimed that the trend is in their favour. While the LDF is aiming to retain its dominance, the UDF sees the higher turnout as a sign of possible gains. The NDA is hopeful of opening its account by winning at least three seats in this sector.

Kasaragod, Kannur, Wayanad, Kozhikode, Malappuram and Palakkad districts account for 60 of Kerala’s 140 Assembly seats, making it a crucial battleground. Out of this, the UDF holds 23 seats, including the 15 of IUML. A significant improvement in this region is essential for the Opposition front to wrest power in this polls. The UDF is also drawing confidence from its improved performance in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections and the 2025 local body polls, hoping that the momentum will carry forward. The LDF, on the other hand, is banking on its governance record and organisational strength to retain its edge.

In Kozhikode district, where the LDF has 10 out of 13 seats, the UDF is hoping to wrest Kozhikode South, Kuttyadi, Perambra, Beypore and Kunnamangalam constituencies. Perambra, which witnessed a fierce battle, with allegations traded between LDF candidate T P Ramakrishnan and UDF’s Fathima Thahliya, recorded more than 80% voter turnout. Despite the LDF’s victory margin of 22,592 votes in 2021, the UDF remains confident. After casting her vote, Fathima Thahliya said the turnout of more than 80% would work in favour of the UDF.

Beypore also witnessed a strong contest between LDF candidate P A Muhammed Riyas and UDF’s P V Anvar. Riyas claimed that he would increase his victory margin this time, while Anvar expressed confidence that “UDF will begin celebrations on May 4 around 2pm”.

Kuttyadi, where the LDF had won by a slender margin of 333 votes in 2021, is being closely watched. The UDF is banking on high turnout, though the absence of many expatriate voters due to the West Asia crisis is seen as a factor. Allegations of bogus voting were also reported in Ayanjeri in Kuttyadi.

High turnout in Kunnamangalam has also raised UDF hopes, especially with IUML district president M A Rasaq Master contesting there. Kunnamangalam, Kuttyadi and Koduvally were among the constituencies that recorded some of the highest turnout in the 2021 elections.

The NDA is also hopeful of putting up a strong performance in Kozhikode North and South, where candidates T Raneesh and Navya Haridas campaigned aggressively, turning the contests more competitive. These constituencies also recorded around 80% polling.

In Malappuram, almost all constituencies recorded higher turnout than the 2021 election. Constituencies like Mankada, Tirur and Thavanur witnessed intense contests, marked by controversies, shifts in political allegiance and the presence of rebel candidates.

In Palakkad, where the LDF holds 9 out of 12 seats, the UDF is trying to improve its tally by targeting constituencies like Thrithala, Ottapalam and Pattambi. The Palakkad Assembly constituency witnessed a war of words on polling day between NDA and Congress candidates over allegations of vote-for-cash against NDA candidate Sobha Surendran.

In Kannur, the constituencies of Peravoor, Thaliparamba, and Payyannur are drawing attention. The entry of rebel candidates who recently left the CPM has made Payyannur and Thaliparamba particularly high-stake contests. In the previous Assembly election, Payyannur and Mattannur recorded some of the highest vote share numbers with CPM leaders T I Madhusoodanan and K K Shailaja securing 62.49% and 61.97% of polled votes, respectively.
In Kasaragod district, BJP is hoping win Kasaragod and Manjeshwar seats.

Leaders of the IUML expressed confidence in the UDF’s prospects. State president Panakkad Sadiq Ali Shihab Thangal said the UDF would return to power with record majority. Likening the 2024 Lok Sabha election to a “quarter-final” and the 2025 local body polls to a “semi-final,” he said the UDF would win the “final” with a “shining majority,” adding that the wave seen in recent elections still persists. IUML national general secretary P K Kunhalikutty also said the UDF expects to win more than 100 seats, citing the high polling percentage.

With high turnout, intense contests and strong claims from all fronts, Malabar once again stands at the centre of Kerala’s electoral verdict, waiting for the May 4 results.