The CPM's surprise move to pick its state secretariat member M Swaraj, the third in-house candidate the party has chosen for the Nilambur constituency in the last 50 years, is a sign of the party's growing electoral confidence as Kerala enters election season.

In the last nearly half-century, the party had picked just two CPM members to fight the Nilambur polls, Devadas Pottekkad (1987) and P Sreeramakrishnan (2006). Aryadan Muhammad, the Congress stalwart who guarded Nilambur like it was inviolable territory, trounced both Devadas by over 10,000 votes and Sreeramakrishnan by over 18,000 votes.

After both the thrashings, the party went back to its usual practice of experimenting with individuals who could influence UDF votes. In 1991, the party chose K Abdurahiman, a former Muslim League leader. He did better than Devadas, the first CPM member who contested Nilambur election after K Kunhali. In 2011, after Sreeramakrishnan's drubbing, the CPM went back to Prof Thomas Mathew, who it had backed in 1996. It was believed he had immense sway over the decisive 10-11% of Christian votes in the constituency.

Like in 1996, he lost to Aryadan. Nonetheless, other than T K Hamza, a 'Congress deserter turned CPM independent' who managed to scrape past Aryadan in 1982, Thomas Mathew was the only CPM independent who could at least bring down Aryadan's victory margin. Ever since Aryadan won Nilambur for the first time in 1977, defeating CPM's Saidalikutty by 7715 votes, the CPM has been desperately looking for ways to sink him.

For the CPM, Aryadan was more than a political foe. The party believed that it was Aryadan who had shot dead its popular leader and Nilambur MLA K Kunhali in 1969. Both were estate union leaders and Aryadan had lost twice to Kunhali, in the first two Nilambur elections, in 1965 and 1967. Aryadan had denied any role in the killing, and the court too had exonerated him.

But after 1977, except for his 1982 loss to Hamza by a small margin, Aryadan had emerged invincible in Nilambur. Instead of going on suicidal missions, the CPM chose non-members who could potentially steal traditional Congress votes, especially Congress renegades or individuals like Abdurahman and Mathew Thomas with strong communal influence, to cut Aryadan to size. Only Hamza managed to leave a scar.

The CPM eventually wrested Nilambur in 2016, but only after the seemingly unbeatable Aryadan had exited the scene. The party chose former Congress leader and maverick businessman P V Anvar to be its independent from Nilambur. Anvar delivered twice in a row, in 2016 and 2021.

Now, Anvar's resignation has forced a byelection. But this time, instead of a candidate-on-hire, the CPM has pushed its own man into the ring. Swaraj is one of the finest public speakers in Kerala and is a Nilambur native.

The State Secretariat that met in Thiruvananthapuram on Friday considered three names. District panchayat member Sherona Joy, DYFI district president P Shabeer and Swaraj. The general consensus at the Secretariat was that the Pinarayi ministry's performance alone was enough to win Nilambur. The growing acceptance of the party among Muslims in North Kerala was cited as another reason.

"The Secretariat's job was to pick the right person to convey the party's message of development and secularism. And who better than the silver-tongued Swaraj to do this," a top CPM leader told Onmanorama.