Ernakulam is projected to remain a UDF stronghold in the 2026 Kerala Assembly elections, with the Manorama News–C Voter exit poll indicating further gains for the Congress-led alliance in the district. Even during the strong LDF wave in the 2021 Assembly elections, Ernakulam was among the few districts where the UDF retained its dominance.

According to the exit poll, the UDF is projected to win between 12 and 14 of Ernakulam’s 14 Assembly seats, while the LDF is expected to be reduced to zero to two seats. This would mark a major setback for the ruling front, which had won five seats in the district in 2021. The UDF had secured nine seats in that election.

The vote share projections also indicate a clear UDF advantage, with the alliance expected to secure 47 per cent of the votes, compared to the LDF’s 36 per cent.

The BJP-led NDA might garner only a 11 per cent vote share, while other candidates could account for 6 per cent.

The contest in the Kalamassery constituency is the most closely watched in the district, with Industries Minister P Rajeev facing a tough challenge in his bid for a second term. Rajeev is locked in a close contest against Muslim League candidate V E Abdul Gafoor, with the exit poll indicating a head-to-head contest with a slight advantage for Rajeev. In the tight contest, the votes secured by NDA candidate M P Binu could play a crucial role in deciding the outcome.

In the Kunnathunad constituency, UDF candidate V P Sajeendran is projected to secure a comfortable victory over sitting CPM MLA P V Sreenijin.

Thripunithura is projected to witness another keen contest, with Congress candidate Deepak Joy locked in a close fight against CPM’s K N Unnikrishnan. The entry of NDA candidate Anjali Nair is expected to add a third dimension to the contest, with her vote share potentially influencing the final outcome. The survey, however, gives a narrow edge to UDF candidate Deepak Joy in the constituency, which was long represented by senior Congress leader K Babu.

Meanwhile, Leader of Opposition V D Satheesan is seeking another term from Paravur, a constituency he has represented continuously since 2001.

The Manorama News–C Voter exit poll survey offers the first comprehensive snapshot of voter sentiment across the state. The survey, conducted between April 9 and 24, covered 28,848 voters. The sample was carefully designed to reflect Kerala’s demographic and socio-economic diversity, improving the reliability of the projections.

The exit poll outlines the overall political trend in Kerala, with detailed district-wise insights across all 14 districts. It also decodes key battlegrounds, tracks vote share patterns, and indicates public preference for the Chief Minister’s post.

As per Section 126A of the Representation of the People Act, 1951, the Election Commission of India had prohibited the conduct and publication of exit polls from 7 am on April 9, 2026, to 6.30 pm on April 29, 2026.