The Manorama News-VMR pre-poll survey has predicted that Mizoram, now ruled by the MNF-BJP alliance, could throw up a hung verdict in the November 7 polls.
The survey shows a massive 7.2 per cent swing against the ruling Mizo National Front and a strong positive swing of 4.2 per cent for its chief opponent, Zoram People's Movement (ZPM). There could be a swing in favour of Congress, too, even if it would only be a marginal 1.2 per cent.
As a consequence, the survey predicts a fall in the MNF seats to the 11-15 range from 27. The Congress, even with a slight swing, could improve its tally to the 12-16 range from the mere 4 it had secured in 2018. In fact, Congress had a mighty fall in 2018. In 2014, the party had 34 seats. The ZPM, too, would increase its seats from the existing 8 to the 10-14 range.
Nonetheless, going by the results of the survey, none of the parties could claim an absolute majority on their own. In a House of 40, 21 seats are required for a party to claim absolute majority.
Interestingly, the survey shows a marginal gain for 'others', which include the BJP. In 2018, in alliance with the MNF, the BJP had secured one seat.
Though the MNF is part of the BJP-led NDA, its candidates are pitted against the BJP in 23 seats, more than half the seats in Mizoram. After the Manipur riots, the MNF has been attempting to distance itself from the BJP without leaving the NDA.
Mizoram will vote on November 7. The sample size for the survey is 3812.
