If anything has remained steady in Kerala over the past five years, it is the collective desire of the Muslim community to see the back of the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance. However, the means to achieve this shared goal has become complicated in 2024.
In 2019, the movement of the finger on the voting machine was almost like an involuntary act for most Muslims. At least two-thirds of Muslim voters in Kerala had chosen UDF candidates, the post-poll survey conducted by the Centre for the Study of Developing Societies (CSDS) found.
There was also the sense that the Congress and its allies could unseat Modi. Adding to the enthusiasm was the presence of Rahul Gandhi in Wayanad, a constituency where more than half the area is Muslim dominated. The community felt like it had a direct stake in electing a potential Prime Minister.
Now, five years later, even if the desire to remove Modi from power has only intensified, the community is in no mood to blindly choose the UDF.
Impoverished Congress
Unlike in 2019, it does not see even a fighting chance for Congress. This would still not have mattered had Congress been willing to court a hero's death.
"Its top leaders are waiting for the next opportunity to join the BJP. They are not fired by any lofty political motive. Only power seems to matter to them," said Mujeeb Rahman Kinalur, writer and chairman of Vakkom Moulavi Centre for Studies and Research. "The exodus is happening even in Kerala. A K Antony's son (Anil Antony) and now K Karunakaran's daughter (Padmaja) have joined the BJP. It is becoming increasingly difficult to trust a Congress MP," he said.
The Muslim community is also disappointed by the 'more Hindu than the BJP' stance adopted by the Congress in places like Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh. Deeply frustrating for the community was the Congress's delay in saying a firm no to the Ram Temple inauguration invite.
The community regards these developments as a manifestation of the grand old party's ideological poverty.
Search for secular comrade
The growing disenchantment with the Congress has coincided with the budding Muslim tendency to see the CPM as a credible alternative. The CPM had used the threats of the Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA) and Uniform Civil Code (UCC), and concerns around the Palestinian struggle, to position itself as the most combative pro-Muslim political force in Kerala.
"We know that the CPM doesn't stand a chance against the BJP. But so is the case with the Congress. And both belong to the INDIA (Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance) bloc. Therefore, what difference would it make if an LDF candidate is chosen," said Ashraf Kadakkal, Islamic scholar and author.
"I think this time, a Muslim will assess only the secular aptitude of a candidate. A candidate who is capable of fiercely defending secularism in Parliament, someone like John Brittas for instance, will be chosen," he said. CPM's Rajya Sabha MP John Brittas's anti-Sangh Parivar speeches in Parliament have gone viral.
On the other hand, in the eyes of Muslim political observers Omanorama talked to, the UDF's best parliamentarians- Shashi Tharoor and N K Premachandran - failed the secular test.
Tharoor, because he called Hamas a terrorist organisation even while condemning the disproportionate Israeli attack on Palestine. Immediately after his remarks, Tharoor's name was struck off from Palestine solidarity meetings organised by Muslim bodies in Thiruvananthapuram.
In Premachandran's case, his meeting with Prime Minister Narendra Modi in the Parliament canteen has caused mistrust.
The mighty snub
Along with the Congress, the Muslim League, too, has fallen in esteem. Samastha Kerala Jem-iyyathul Ulama, for long the scholarly religious backbone of the League, has started to initiate political moves that conflict with the League's interests.
Take for instance July 2022, when the Pinarayi Government passed a bill handing over Wakf Board appointments to the Kerala State Public Service Commission. There was huge resentment in the community.
The Muslim League wanted to use Friday prayers in mosques to mount a mighty offensive against the LDF government. The Samastha put its foot down, it said no political speeches will be allowed inside masjids. The League felt spurned.
Samastha president Sayyid Muhammed Jifri Muthu Koya Thangal then spoke to Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan in person and got the Wakf-PSC Act withdrawn. A Samastha head bypassing the League and getting things done directly was unheard of.
Ponnani gamble
A rift that was created then has been widening. The CPM is wiggling into that space. Last year, the CPM junked its progressive gender-neutral education policy to keep the conservative Samastha in good humour.
"There is a large section within Samastha which is disappointed with the kind of politics practised by the League. They might opt for LDF this time," a top Samastha leader said on condition of anonymity.
It is to tap this resentment that the CPM has chosen former league leader K S Hamsa as its candidate in Ponnani. "Everyone knows that it was not for any anti-party activity that Hamsa was expelled from the League but for openly revolting against the wayward ways of League leaders. He was speaking for the ordinary League worker," the Samastha leader said.
Provocative act of forgiveness
The more aggressive among the League workers are also annoyed by League president Sadiq Ali Shihab Thangal's 'I don't think there is any need for us to protest against this’ message about the Ayodhya Ram Temple.
Two days after the Ram Temple inauguration on January 22, Sadiq Ali told a public rally in Manjeri that the Ram Temple and the mosque that would come up in Ayodhya "are shining examples of how Indian secularism is strengthened".
"How can he even think of saying this when the Sangh Parivar has already initiated moves to take over the Gyan Vyapi mosque in Kashi? His remarks are an insult not just to Muslims but to all secular-minded people in Kerala," the Samastha leader said.
Alienation and consequence
The Muslim drift away from the UDF has already happened. The CSDS survey has found that nearly 50% of Muslims voted for the LDF in Central Tranvancore (Pathanamthitta, Kollam and Alappuzha) in the 2021 Assembly elections, up from 25% in 2016. In the Travancore region, too, there was a three per cent increase in Muslim votes for the LDF.
Even then, the community is aware that its alienation from the Congress could benefit the BJP in closely-fought constituencies like Thiruvananthapuram, Thrissur, Palakkad and Kasaragod. The general thinking is that the community will vote for the UDF where the BJP has a chance and in other places, where it is an LDF-UDF duel, individual preferences will come into play.
