When the Muslim League announced its candidates for the assembly elections 2026, Vanitha League National Secretary Noorbeena Rasheed did not hide her displeasure. In 2021, she had become the first IUML woman candidate in 25 years and contested from Kozhikode South. In what she described as a ‘do-or-die’ battle, she lost by over 12,000 votes.

As she fumed over the choices this time, she was quick to add that she was speaking not for herself but for other members of the Vanitha League. For women candidates, every chance is a tough deal as Rasheed would know better than anyone else.

It’s no different this time as well. Save for three constituencies where the main contenders are women, the contest could very well seal their political future.

Aroor
In Aroor, CPM’s sitting MLA Daleema Jojo is facing senior Congress leader Shanimol Usman for the second time. The fact that Usman won the 2019 assembly bypoll against all odds shows that the constituency could lean either way this time. Backed by projects such as the Perumbalam bridge and the Aroor–Thuravoor elevated highway, Daleema is confident of retaining the seat. The 1,157-metre Perumbalam bridge, connecting the island to Arookutty panchayat, has transformed daily life for nearly 15,000 residents who once depended on time-consuming travel to the mainland. “People from Perumbalam had to leave home two hours earlier to reach work. Now, after the bridge, workers are able to maintain regular hours and earn on par with others,” the MLA told Onmanorama.

The LDF has alleged that some projects initiated during Shanimol Usman’s tenure faced delays due to lack of follow-up, while the current administration ensured continuity.

Shanimol, however, remains unconvinced. Making her third bid from Aroor, she has maintained a strong presence despite her 2021 defeat. She argues that while the Perumbalam bridge is significant, the UDF has a better track record of connecting islands during its term.

Since the turn of the new century, the constituency has an interesting way of bucking the trend. In 2006, it voted out veteran KR Gowri Amma who had won from the constituency consecutively for 6 times since 1980. AM Ariff who was elected to power then stayed the course till 2019 when he was fielded for the Lok Sabha elections. In 2019 when Kerala largely backed UDF candidates in the Lok Sabha election, Aroor stood out by electing A M Ariff.

Thrikkakkara
In Thrikkakkara, Uma Thomas, who won the bypoll by over 25,000 votes following the death of her husband P T Thomas, is facing her first full-term electoral test. Campaigning intensively, she is confident of retaining the seat.

She faces CPM’s Advocate Pushpa Das and Twenty20’s celebrity candidate Akhil Marar. Pushpa Das is relying on the LDF’s development narrative.

“Even though this is traditionally a UDF constituency, I feel there is a sense of acceptance amongst the people. IT professionals have told me that as a candidate from the Left, I bring hope to them, especially in terms of providing basic infrastructure like roads and transport,” she said.

Uma Thomas, who recovered from an accidental fall, has been an active presence in the public realm.

Through her MLA fund, Thomas has prioritised primary healthcare and school infrastructure, though she has also flagged delays in projects from the government’s end such as a proposed dialysis centre.

Kongad
An intense contest is unfolding in the predominantly rural and hilly constituency of Kongad in Palakkad. Here, CPM’s lawyer-turned-politician K Shanthakumari faces Congress candidate K A Thulasi in a Scheduled Caste-reserved seat. The constituency has favoured the CPM since its formation in 2011, with Shanthakumari winning by over 27,000 votes in 2021.

Shanthakumari believes that the LDF’s ‘spectacular welfare-focused government’ and her timely interventions such as fencing to address human-animal conflict and progress on land title issues will help her sail through the polls. “The hilly areas in our constituency include Kanjirappuzha, Karimba and Thachampara. One of the biggest issues there is human-animal conflict, especially affecting agriculture. To address this, based on scientific recommendations, we have implemented fencing across 27 kilometres of forest boundary at a cost of ₹1.75 crore,” she told Onmanorama.

Congress candidate Thulasi has had to fend off allegations of nepotism over her candidature, linked to her husband, Palakkad MP V K Sreekandan even as she highlights gaps in the LDF government’s performance. “I was not given this candidature because I am someone’s wife. Even before my marriage, I had contested Assembly and Parliament elections. My selection is based on my work and winnability,” she said, adding that her husband’s grassroots connect would strengthen her campaign.

On Kongad’s perceived LDF leanings, Thulasi said, “I don’t think it is a trend. This constituency was formed in 2011, and at that time, the UDF lost by just around 3,000 votes. In the subsequent election, there was a contest between a local leader and an outsider, which may have influenced voter perception. In 2016, it was the end of the UDF government’s term, and in 2021, a Muslim League candidate contested. Various factors, including the Covid period, may have contributed to the LDF’s continued rule.” She also criticised the LDF’s development claims, citing poor infrastructure, delayed pensions and agrarian distress. “Many farmers have fallen into debt and even stopped farming. The public wants a change,” she said.

Why fewer women candidates?
Amid vitriolic attacks on women candidates, most leaders attribute their low representation to entrenched patriarchy. “The primary reason is that our society is still patriarchal. Politics is a space where women, men and transgender persons should all participate equally, but the system remains male-dominated,” says Shanthakumari, adding that recent attacks against the Kayamkulam MLA U Pratibha, Minister Veena George and earlier against K K Shailaja reflect persistent anti-women sentiment. She notes that reservation in local bodies brought meaningful change and argues that a similar push is needed at higher levels. Her opponent Thulasi echoes the call for greater participation, stressing that entering politics is a conscious choice, not a burden. “More educated women should enter politics. It depends on how we use our time and opportunities,” she says.

Across fronts, the data points to a structural limitation rather than a one-off electoral cycle issue. In a 140-seat Assembly, the UDF has fielded 12 women candidates, the LDF 18 and the NDA 16, effectively capping any significant rise in representation. Since 2006, the LDF has accounted for most women MLAs, while the UDF’s best performance came in 2001 with seven members. Despite having more women voters and the country’s highest sex ratio at 1,121 females for 1000 males, Kerala ranks only 16th in women’s representation in the country.

Of the 11 sitting women MLAs, ten — K K Shailaja, R Bindu, Veena George, J Chinchurani, U Prathibha, Daleema Jojo, O S Ambika, K Shanthakumari, K K Rema and Uma Thomas — have been fielded again, mostly in their current constituencies. This reliance on incumbents suggests that parties are more comfortable maintaining existing female presence than opening new avenues for women leaders.

Shailaja’s shift from Mattanur to Peravoor invited lot of flak for the CPM. Minister R Bindu (Irinjalakuda) and U Prathibha (Kayamkulam), who won by narrower margins (less than 10,000), could face stronger anti-incumbency. RMP leader K K Rema, who won Vadakara in her first stint, appears relatively secure.

Beyond sitting MLAs, the pipeline remains limited. CPI’s Geetha Gopi is seen as a strong contender in Nattika, despite a challenge from former Left leader and now BJP member C C Mukundan. In Kollam, Congress leader Bindu Krishna faces LDF’s S Jayamohan in what could be a close contest. However, Ramya Haridas in Chirayinkeezhu and IUML candidates in Koothuparamba and Perambra face uphill battles in CPM strongholds. The NDA, meanwhile, has adopted a targeted approach, fielding Sobha Surendran in Palakkad and focusing on winnable seats rather than expanding overall representation.