National media is going gaga over prime minister Narendra Modi's deeper embrace of the United States. On his seventh trip there, Modi delivered a scintillating speech to the US Congress, secured US backing for India's entry into the NSG as well as the Missile Technology Control Regime, agreed to formally join the Paris climate change agreement, and secured the return of stolen idols worth $100 million. All great headline stuff.
Modi, the New York Times said, was galvanized into action by the prospect of Donald Trump who has advocated an "America First" policy becoming the next president. The paper also said India's willingness to form military partnerships with the US is driven by a fear of China. Probably true, and that is where it seems the prime minister and the whole Indian policy establishment is on the wrong track.
There was another Indian prime minister who tried to tread a similar path — with disastrous consequences. Jawaharlal Nehru first tried his own adventure with the Chinese, against better counsel by professional generals. He shunted out Lt Gen. SPP Thorat, then army commander (East), brought in his yes-men, and brought about the most embarrassing defeat ever for India. The Chinese overran our defenses and when it looked like the entire Northeast was lost and Nehru even made a speech in the Lok Sabha to that effect, the Chinese went back. They had proved their point. And, for the record, the US was busy arming Pakistan for the next war with India.
The government of Jawaharlal Nehru then partnered with the CIA to induct armed "freedom fighters" into Chinese-occupied Tibet, and also tried to install a nuclear-powered listening device on the Himalayas in what was dubbed Operation Hat. Both adventures ended in tragedy: the Tibetans were left to the mercy of the Chinese troops when Nehru and the CIA abandoned them; the listening station, along with its plutonium power pack, was lost in the Himalayan snows on the sides of the Nanda Devi peak and still poses the threat to irradiate millions of Indians if it reaches the sources of one of the numerous rivers feeding the Ganga-Yamuna river system. Another listening station was installed later. And then the Chinese fell out with the Russians and the Americans forgot India.
It was one of the worst blunders in Indian foreign policy. Obviously Nehru hadn't read Chanakya's Arthashastra, a seminal treatise on statecraft, economic policy and military strategy that is still respected worldwide. He was sold on western ideas, and India is still paying the price for that. Well, Indira Gandhi never forgot that humiliating experience.
1971. The Pakistanis and their jihadis were mercilessly hunting down Bangladeshis who were seeking freedom from Pakistan rule. India, getting no help to deal with the refugees streaming across the border, sent in its troops, and the Americans — yes, these great friends — sent the Seventh Fleet, led by the aircraft carrier USS Enterprise, to the Bay of Bengal. The aim was to intervene in the fight in favor of the Pakistanis. India did not have any viable military answer to that threat. Several of the American naval ships were bigger than the biggest Indian Navy ship then, the carrier INS Vikrant. The Americans did not care for the war crimes of the Pakistanis, India's refugee crisis, or any other human or political considerations. They were hell-bent on helping Pakistan militarily.
And the Americans' eternal stooges, the Brits — the nation that grew rich through plunder and murder across the globe and who still hold on to the delusion of their greatness — sent in their own naval task force to the Arabian sea.
A China-war like tragedy was averted only because the Soviet Union, with whom Indira had activated a military-help treaty, responded to India's SOS for help. A fleet of Soviet submarines sailed into the Indian ocean, and to make their intentions clear to the Americans and Brits, operated on the surface with their missile radars switched on (the Americans till then did not know the Russians were there). That did the trick. The British naval force turned tail and escaped back to their base in the Madagaskar. The Americans were taken by surprise and did not intervene in Bangladesh, which helped the Indian army score one of its most dazzling victories ever.
Well, students of history know that is not the only time Soviet Union and later Russia helped India while America tried to tighten the screws on the world's biggest democracy. Russia has used the veto any number of times in the United Nations for India. But with the last two UPA governments, Indian foreign policy establishment has tried to hew a path closer to the Americans, even to the point of giving the cold shoulder to Russians.
Yes, India and America share huge economic and trade interests (let us keep the democracy drivel out of this discussion), so it is not easy to ignore that country entirely or keep it out of our foreign policy calculus. But the Indian government's seeming embrace of America ignores two things. One, history. In other words, America's track record in dealing with India. Only really delusional foreign policy experts can think the US will one day forget all its habits and become India's bosom friend. Especially when there is no evidence to suggest that it is going to stop the military and financial aid to Pakistan, which is helping the latter country stay afloat and amass nuclear weapons aimed at India. Despite even Pak-sponsored terrorists butchering American troops and trying to topple the Afghanistan government. Especially when even president Obama who privately talks of Pakistan’s help to terrorists dare not do anything against it. For the record, only Trump is being truthful here publicly.
Second, geopolitics. Russia is in our extended neighborhood. If it wants, Russia can tighten the screws on India as much as it had helped us earlier. Putin's decision to sell arms to Pakistan is just the start. And the way the UPA ignored this one-time all-weather friend looked puerile. Modi did try to make amends but that does not look adequate to salvage this relationship. And his deeper embrace of the Yanks at a time when the cold war between Russia and America looks all set to revive, is, to say the least, inopportune.
The third argument goes back to China. Our huge neighbor too has deep economic interests with the US. But that has not deterred China from staring straight at Uncle Sam's face. Because breaking off the relationship can be damaging to both sides -- equally. The Chinese understand it and have carefully calibrated their moves, so much so that the Americans are the ones who are unnerved and looking for military partnerships in South and South East Asia. But Indian foreign policy mandarins are too sold on the US to think straight and to India's advantage.
It seems our foreign policy establishment now lacks high-caliber minds to think through this geopolitical problem to India’s advantage. Their way of dealing with China resembles the response of kids frightened by a neighborhood bully. The problem with making ourselves part of an anti-China military partnership as the United States wants, is that it will spur China to create more trouble for us. And we still have the nuclear-armed Pakistanis — supported as ever by the Americans — to worry about. Plus there is the prospect of the Chinese — traditional friends of Pakistan — and now the Russians helping Pakistan. So such a partnership, which is essentially about going with fair-weather friends, will only serve to consolidate India’s enemies and make our neighborhood even more dangerous to us. And don't expect the US to airdrop a division of the Marines to help us if the Chinese kick up trouble on our borders. And even if they do — quite a long shot that one — that won't be of much help.
While this column is not about isolationism on the world stage, we need to be careful getting into a deeper military embrace with the Yanks. America's love for India is not about democracy but stems from its fear for China. For India, it is better to engage only economically and culturally with both these countries while maintaining a strong military posture, as well as building on the friendship with Russia. And Modi should build on the good work he has already done in making our immediate neighborhood friendlier.
Modi should not ignore how the United States denied him visa for 11 long years (for whatever reasons) and then one day decided to make him their best friend. He should not ignore what the US said when the Vajpayee government tested nukes: that the Indian people who elected the BJP will be punished (democracy, my foot!). America never has had a track record of helping India, and at the same time has a deep record of helping Pakistan against India. While it is essential for Modi to engage constructively with the Americans for India's economic benefit, he should not ignore history and blindly trust them. Because, American foreign policy calculus still favors Pakistan. What has changed is, it is mortally afraid of China and wants Asian states to do the dirty work for it, so that its own corporations can exploit the trade opportunities. In other words, he should not get carried away by the globalization and free trade spiel of the west.
India should learn to deal with America from how China deals with America. And Modi should learn from Nehru's disastrous mistakes in courting the Americans, a lesson Indira Gandhi never forgot but which Rajiv and Manmohan Singh ignored. Above all, he should make Chanakya his pole star in these matters – for the country’s sake. The prime minister, the foreign minister, and all MEA bureaucrats should read and internalize the Arthashastra so that the country does not blunder along in matters of geopolitics and foreign policy as it has done in the UPA years. Modi should bring in foreign policy advisers who follow Chanakya and not Nehru.
India can become America's best friend, trading partner or strategic partner but India cannot change its neighbors, or the geopolitics. America as military partner cannot countervail an unfriendly Russia, an antagonistic Pakistan and a worrisome China.
(The views expressed here are personal)
