In three years, Kerala could find its political clout considerably diminished in the Lok Sabha. In 2026, the 42nd amendment that Indira Gandhi had introduced nearly 50 years ago in 1977 to freeze the Lok Sabha representation at the level of the 1971 census will lapse.
According to Congress MP Shashi Tharoor, a BJP government is unlikely to be in favour of renewal. "It is becoming very clear to many of us southern MPs that it was quite unlikely that this government, if they are in power in 2026, will at all be in favour of a further extension of the amendment," Tharoor said during the launch of 'India's Federal Setup: A Journey Through Seven Decades', a book authored by former Income Tax commissioner R Mohan.
"The first indication that the amendment for further extension is doomed came in the instructions given to the 15th Finance Commission. It was told to take into account the 2011 census," Tharoor said.
The 15th Finance Commission was the first finance commission that was instructed by the Centre to abandon the formula of relying upon the 1971 census.
Importance of 42nd amendment
"The 1971 census is considered the last one in which essentially organic normal population growth had happened throughout the country. After 1971, the introduction of population control by Indira Gandhi led to the 42nd amendment in 1977 in which she said that Lok Sabha representation will be frozen at the level of the 1971 census to ensure that those who effectively implemented population control policies in the larger national interest are not penalised. And also that those who fail to implement population policies, whose populations get out of control, are not rewarded," Tharoor said.
Finance commissions, from that time onwards, were told to use the 1971 census for the allocation of tax revenues to the state. For 25 years, this went on without a hiccup.
Even Vajpayee followed Indira
"Interestingly, in 2001, a BJP government led by Atal Bihari Vajpayee decided to renew the 42 amendment for another 25 years without debate. It was passed unanimously in both houses of Parliament," Tharoor said.
Given the current political climate, the Vajpayee government's decision to go for a 25-year extension might look even more surprising. This was done even though in the preceding 25 years there was a certain dissonance between the size of the country's population and political representation on the one hand and the size of the population of northern states, particularly the so-called cow belt, the Hindi-speaking states of the north.
"They had a genuine legitimate grievance that as their population grew each MP, for example, had to represent more people than an MP in Kerala or Andhra Pradesh," Tharoor said.
It is this extension of the 42nd amendment, which had till now held the country's fragile north-south balance, that is going to lapse in 2026.
Population hunters
Now, it looks like the BJP dispensation wants to use this failure to rein in population growth to its advantage.
While southern states like Kerala and Andhra Pradesh had studiously worked to control the population, the northern states just could not. Result: Their populations have exploded in comparison to southern states.
"There has been a dramatic difference, much more than what was envisaged in the 60s and 70s, in population performance. I suspect the trends (as shown in the last 2011 census) are going to be more accentuated had we had a census in 2021," Tharoor said.
In the decade between 2001 and 2011, Bihar, Jharkhand, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Uttar Pradesh had a decadal population growth of more than 20 per cent. "In contrast, the average decadal growth of southern states during the same period was less than 16 per cent," Tharoor said.
Betrayal of Kerala
Kerala had the lowest decadal growth rate in the country, just 4.9 per cent. "This means that the average annual growth of our population is not even half of one percent. My common sense tells me that had we had a census in 2021 we might have gone from 0.49 per cent to zero, or maybe even negative population growth. That is the reality we are facing in our state," Tharoor said.
The population growth in a larger time frame, say from 1971 (the year Indira Gandhi wanted population numbers to be frozen for Center-state transfers) to 2011, is far more telling. In those 40 years, Kerala grew just 56 per cent, Tharoor said. "Rajasthan, in the same 40 years, grew 166 per cent," he said.
Losers the gainers
An anomalous situation has already developed in the country. "Unlike most federal systems across the world, we have an extremely unusual situation where India's revenues are going disproportionately to its worst-performing states; those with poor levels of education, high rates of fertility and population growth. Whereas the high-performance states in the south are getting short shrift," Tharoor said.
Already, Tharoor said that one rupee paid in tax by Uttar Pradesh fetches the state Rs 1.79 in return from the central government. "Whereas one rupee paid by Karnataka in tax gets them only 47 paise back. This is the kind of disparity that has been widening with time," he said.
"We have a situation where the states that have failed to control their population effectively, including because they have failed to empower their women effectively, have grown dramatically in population and as a result have gained in political clout and in fiscal benefits," he said.
The inter-state inequities are measurable. Karnataka is meeting 72 per cent of its expenses from its own taxes. Bihar is meeting only 23 per cent of its expenses from its own revenue. In other words, 77 per cent of Bihar's actual expenditure comes from the Centre. And in Karnataka's case, only 28 per cent comes from the Centre.
In Kerala, 64 per cent of its expenditure is met by its own tax revenue.
... in the formula that I am hearing being talked about, if Kerala remains at 20 (seats), we are likely to see the UP number going up from 80 to at least 120
Shashi Tharoor MP
What happens if the amendment lapses
If the 42 amendment is made to lapse in 2026, there are two possibilities that Tharoor envisages. One, if the Lok Sabha seats are retained at 543, the number of Kerala MPs will dwindle from a consequential 20.
Otherwise, there will be an increase in the number of Lok Sabha seats in such a way that no state loses their existing parliamentary representation. However, many states will gain.
In this formula, Tharoor said he expects that the total number of Lok sabha seats could probably be well over 700 MPs, with many northern states getting the bulk of the increased number.
Currently, for example, Kerala has 20 seats with a population of about 40 million, and UP with a population of 220 million has 80 seats. This is four times the number even if the population of UP is five-and-a-half times higher than Kerala's.
"But in the formula that I am hearing being talked about, if Kerala remains at 20, we are likely to see the UP number going up from 80 to at least 120. Other southern states are also in a downward trend when it comes to population," he said.
Threat of disintegration
All of this could end in a situation where it will be impossible for the southern states to block a constitutional amendment because two-thirds of MPs will be from the northern states, particularly from the Hindi-speaking states.
"For example, in every session, some BJP member gets up and says that Hindi should be our national language. Suppose the Parliament passes an amendment ensuring this, the southern states will be in no position to stop this," he said.
Perhaps, this will not be an issue in Kerala. "We are highly adaptive and flexible. But what happens next door in Tamil Nadu is another matter. This could be a kind of issue that could threaten the unity and integrity of our country," Tharoor said.
