Kottayam: A team of researchers led by climate scientists in Kerala has developed a novel nowcast technique that can predict rain events more accurately. The nowcasting technique predicts heavy and extreme-rainfall events by analyzing early microphysical signatures in mesoscale convective clouds. The method primarily involves the cloud top temperature and cloud effective radius profiles derived through remote sensing.

The research on the nowcasting technique, in collaboration with various national and international universities and agencies, was spearheaded by a team of climate scientists led by Dr Sinan Nizar of Institute for Climate Change Studies (ICCS). Other scientists who were part of the study included Dr Jobin Thomas and P J Jainet. Dr KP Sudheer, the ex-officio Principal Secretary, Science & Technology Department and EVP KSCSTE has been a constant support and the driving force behind the research, which was launched in 2019.

The nowcasting technique is the answer to the challenges posed by uncertainties in the present weather prediction models, which increase inaccuracies in weather forecast. The nowcast model was recently applied in the Western Ghats of Kerala and was found to clock an accuracy of 93 per cent and a lead time of at least six hours. This demonstrates the effectiveness of nowcasting extreme rain events at regional levels.

Speaking to Onmanorama Dr Sinan said that the technique involves data derived from the satellite. "However, the information from the model may not be available for the public initially but will be shared with the line departments like KSDMA and so on," he said and added that nowcast is based on the convective cloud present at a particular place at that actual time. "That is why it is more accurate than other models," he said.

According to World Meteorological Organization (WMO), 90 per cent of the loss of lives due to extreme weather conditions in developing countries points towards the need for strengthening early disaster warning system. In Kerala, since 2018, the windward slopes of Western Ghats experienced frequent extreme rain events causing devastating landslides in the highlands and floods in the low-lying areas.

With these formidable challenges requiring urgent remedial steps, "the focus has shifted towards nowcasting, a proactive approach that leverages near real-time observational data to provide short-term forecasts, typically spanning a few hours. Unlike forecasting methods, nowcasting offers the advantage of rapid response, enabling authorities to issue timely warnings and implement mitigation measures prior to the occurrence of extreme rainfall events," the study said.