Nilambur: With just eight days left for the Nilambur byelection, the two major candidates have decisively shifted the discussions to development and welfare delivery -- or the absence of it -- with LDF candidate M Swaraj pitching the contest as a referendum on the Pinarayi Vijayan government.

But the contest has acquired communal undertones, with the LDF projecting the Welfare Party of India's declaration of support for the UDF as a larger communal alignment, even as organisations such as Abdul Nasar Madani's People's Democratic Party (PDP) and a little-known faction of Hindu Mahasabha extended support to LDF.

CPM state secretary MV Govindan criticised the Congress-led United Democratic Front for accepting support from the Welfare Party of India, the political arm of the Jamaat-e-Islami, in the Nilambur bypolls. He alleged that the organisation has a political agenda to establish an Islamic country.

The PDP and the Hindu Mahasabha have few votes in Nilambur to make an impact. But Jamaat-e-Islami has around 3,000 votes, which usually go to the LDF in Nilambur. Political watchers in Nilambur say that as the election nears, there could be a consolidation of Muslim votes in favour of Shoukath.

But on the ground, LDF candidate and CPM's state secretariat member M Swaraj stuck to water metro, national highways, GAIL pipeline, Edamon-Kochi power highway, and welfare pension. "If I may put it colourfully, these were dead and buried projects," Swaraj said in his stump speech at Kavalamukkatta in Amarambalam panchayat.

"Modern science may not yet know how to bring back the dead, but the Pinarayi Vijayan government gave Kerala the knowledge to resurrect lifeless projects," he said, standing under the glowing orange sign of a textile shop named 'Sapna'. The line drew applause from the small gathering of men, women and children.

Turning to welfare, Swaraj said around 60 lakh Keralites get a ₹1,600 welfare pension. "It is being distributed monthly," he said, glossing over the irregular disbursals.

There will be many people in this crowd who received the pension last week, he said and added: "The government gave pension for two months together," he said, making it sound as if it was an advance and not arrears.

Now the LDF is considering increasing the welfare pension to ₹2,500. "We are not able to increase the pension because Kerala is denied its due by the Union government.”

But he subtly acknowledged that Nilambur was left behind in the nine years when Left-backed Independent PV Anvar was the MLA. "Nilambur should be able to come up with compatible, practical, scientific development projects. The term is short... but there is time to initiate steps to implement developmental projects," Swaraj said. "This election can be the first step for a new Nilambur."

Swaraj then turned to address UDF supporters. "There are many Congress supporters here. But would you want power cuts to return just because you support the Congress? Would you want your children to go without textbooks, even during exam time? Everyone acknowledges the changes in our state -- and that will translate into solidarity with the Left. You can see it in every reception centre."

Aryadan, the guardian
At another corner of Nilambur, UDF candidate Aryadan Shoukath, campaigning in Pothukallu panchayat, appeared to tailor his speech as a direct rebuttal to Swaraj. "Here in Vaniyampuzha colony (near Muderi), I helped a woman named B K Sudha file a writ petition in the High Court for a toilet and a bridge. She had to file a contempt petition before she could get the toilet. The bridge is not yet ready," Shoukath said at Santhinagar.

Pothukallu and Amarambalam panchayats are with the LDF, and UDF is looking to wrest them back in the local body election later this year.

After the 2019 landslides, the government announced Rebuild Nilambur. "Where is the rebuild? Around 200 Adivasi families have been living in tarpaulin tents for the past five to six years at Vaniyampuzha colony," he said. The floods destroyed around 60 houses in the colony.

"Before, too, there were problems from natural disasters. But this is the first time, there is no solution. People don't know whom to turn to," he said. "Nilambur requires a guardian."

Taking a jab at Swaraj, Shoukath said: "We were here during the landslides. But some who are making appearances now -- we didn’t see them back then."

When asked about his absence during the 2019 landslides, Swaraj said his presence could be verified through Anvar’s Facebook posts. Onmanorama checked and found just one such post featuring Swaraj in the aftermath of the 2019 disaster.

"He is one of us," said Subramanian Chalaparambil, a Congress-affiliated timber worker. "He can't claim he came for a day or two. He should’ve been with us, helping people. Even in 2024, when the Wayanad landslide swept bodies into Pothukallu, he was missing."

Subramanian said UDF’s decline in Nilambur was largely due to infighting. "In 2016, differences between the Congress and IUML -- and within the Congress over Shoukath’s candidature -- cost us dearly."

Abbas Cheriampadam, a businessman based in Saudi Arabia and now campaigning for Shoukath, said: "In 2016 and 2021, UDF’s own candidates undercut each other. That chapter is closed now. Today there is unity within the Congress and across the UDF. That will make the difference in this election."

Subramanian and Abbas said the death of Ananthu, a schoolboy who tripped on an electrified snare set up by a poacher, would play on voters' minds for long. "People are under constant wildlife attack here," said Abbas.

Francis, an autorickshaw driver originally from Enathu in Pathanamthitta district, said it would have been a walkover for the UDF had the Congress fielded DCC president VS Joy. "But he is not a leader who will sabotage UDF's chances for personal gains," said Francis.

He also said it was unlikely Christians would vote for the BJP because it fielded a Christian candidate. "Nilambur does not vote on those lines," he said.

At Elakkal in Amarambalam panchayat, Irfana, a young homemaker waiting with her toddler for the LDF candidate, said the election was tight but Swaraj would scrape through.

Leelavathi Vettancheri, 80, who once ran a tea shop at Chulliyode -- where CPM MLA Kunhali was assassinated in 1969 -- said not a single party vote would go to Anvar. "We voted for him only because the LDF fielded him. He's nobody today," said Leelavathi, who claims she's the last living person to have cooked and served Comrade Kunhali.

Thankamma P N, in her 70s, who moved to Chulliyod from Pathanamthitta two years after Kunhali was killed, said this was the first time since the 1980s that she got an opportunity to vote for the sickle-and-hammer symbol. "So yes, we’ll definitely step out and vote," she said when asked if it was worth spending time to elect an MLA for just 10 months.

As both candidates lean heavily on the government's report card, Nilambur’s voters may find it easier to weigh campaign claims against lived experience.