Kochi: Munnar town turned into a spectacle of colour and sound on Sunday as the NDA held a high-energy rally for its Devikulam candidate S Rajendran ahead of BJP Tamil Nadu leader K Annamalai’s visit. Hundreds of workers poured into the hill town, accompanied by folk performances and rhythmic percussion. 

More than a show of strength, the rally highlighted Rajendran’s enduring grassroots appeal and the shifting political undercurrents in Idukki. 

Once seen as a largely bipolar battleground, Idukki is now witnessing fragmented contests, leadership transitions, and recalibrated alliances across constituencies. 

The contests here are shaped by a complex interplay of leadership battles, shifting loyalties, agrarian distress, man-animal conflict, plantation worker issues, and growing anti-incumbency.

Devikulam: It’s the battle of ‘Rajas’
The sitting LDF MLA, A Raja, faces a dual challenge from UDF’s F Raja and NDA’s S Rajendran, a former CPM heavyweight and three-term MLA who joined the BJP ahead of the polls. Rajendran’s entry is particularly significant, as it could split the traditional LDF vote base, especially among Tamil-speaking plantation workers.

Historically, the NDA has secured fewer than 4,000 votes in Devikulam, except in 2016 when it crossed 9,000. This time, however, its performance could be unprecedented due to Rajendran’s candidacy. The number of votes he secures may well decide the outcome.

Rajendran was suspended from the CPM after the 2021 Kerala Assembly elections over allegations that he attempted to undermine the party’s official candidate, A Raja. Although the suspension was lifted ahead of the Lok Sabha polls, he chose not to renew his membership for nearly five years. CPM leaders downplay his impact, but ground-level assessments suggest otherwise.

“Rajendran remains one of the most influential political figures in Devikulam. His long tenure as a plantation labour leader has helped him build deep-rooted grassroots support, particularly among estate workers. His influence over Devikulam’s caste dynamics makes him a decisive factor. The constituency has a significant voter base from the Paraiyar and Pallar communities, which often determines electoral outcomes. Rajendran commands influence in both groups, with particularly strong backing among the Pallar community,” Selvam, a local contractor in Munnar town, told Onmanorama.

If Rajendran mobilises his support base, it could split the CPM vote, weakening the LDF. At the same time, it may also eat into Congress votes, further fragmenting the contest.

“Rajendran has announced plans to launch a welfare society for plantation workers, including financial assistance initiatives. This move is widely seen as an effort to consolidate and expand his grassroots base. If he splits the vote bank, UDF might have a chance,” said Tamil Arasi, a plantation worker.

Meanwhile, the LDF’s strong organisational network in the hill belts and its enduring connection with plantation workers may help it withstand this split. 

Ground reports still suggest Devikulam remains a marginal advantage seat for the LDF.

“Workers won’t forgive his betrayal and the LDF vote bank is secure,” said MP Aliyar, CPM Adimali area committee member.

Udumbanchola: Mani’s exit triggers a tight contest
Udumbanchola, long seen as an LDF bastion, is witnessing one of its most unpredictable contests in decades. With veteran leader M M Mani stepping aside, the LDF has fielded state secretariat member and former MLA K K Jayachandran, banking on organisational strength and legacy. However, Mani’s absence has clearly altered the political landscape.

The UDF’s Senapathi Venu, who narrowly lost to Mani by just 1,109 votes in 2016, is contesting with renewed confidence.

“Venu’s growing popularity and the UDF’s improved local body performance, even in LDF strongholds, have made this highly competitive. I’m an LDF supporter, but without Mani Aashan, UDF might win,” said Rajesh, an auto-rickshaw driver in Nedumkandam.

BDJS’s Sangeetha Vishwanathan, the only female candidate in Idukki, represents the NDA in a constituency with a significant Ezhava population. 

Key voter concerns such as wildlife attacks, land rights issues, and rising living costs are shaping the discourse. The UDF’s claim of cleaning up electoral rolls following the Special Intensive Revision could also influence the final outcome.

Despite a strong UDF push, the LDF’s deep-rooted cadre base gives it a narrow edge.

“Even without contesting, Mani Aashan leads the campaign. His developmental initiatives will help us retain the seat,” said Sanju, an LDF ward member in Santhanpara panchayat.

Idukki: Prestige battle for Roshy Augustine
The Idukki constituency is witnessing a high-voltage contest centred on sitting MLA and Irrigation minister Roshy Augustine of KC (M), who is seeking a sixth consecutive term. His long-standing personal connection has often transcended party lines, even drawing support from Congress workers when KC (M) shifted between the LDF and the UDF.

However, the political equations have changed this time. The UDF’s decision to field Roy K Paulose under the Congress’s ‘Hand’ symbol, after nearly three decades, has energised its cadre.

“The return of the hand symbol could bring back traditional Congress votes that earlier shifted to Roshy due to his personal appeal. With Roshy’s reduced majority of 5,573 in 2021, the UDF has a real chance,” said Xavier, a bakery owner in Kattapana.

UDF hopes to carry forward the momentum in local body polls 2025.

The NDA has fielded Adv. Pratheesh Prabha (BDJS), targeting youth voters. Internal dynamics within KC (M) have added complexity. Reported tensions with Jose K Mani and Roshy’s need to assert his dominance have raised the stakes. 

Many voters believe sections of KC (M) favour a return to the UDF, with Roshy opposing such moves. A defeat could significantly impact his political future, making this a prestige battle. The CPM’s organisational machinery is working strongly to prevent such an outcome.

Symbolism has also drawn attention. Roshy’s hoardings prominently feature Pinarayi Vijayan, while the party’s late supremo KM Mani is notably absent in contrast to Roy’s posters featuring Oommen Chandy. Roshy’s camp dismisses the issue.

“Roshy’s bond with Mani Sir is well known. These are unnecessary distractions created by the opposition,” said a Kerala Youth Front leader.

While the LDF highlights development, local issues like drinking water scarcity, land title disputes, and gaps in facilities at Idukki Medical College, have fuelled anti-incumbency.

Kerala Congress (PJ Joseph faction) has been unhappy over giving up its seat. Leaders allege sidelining after local body polls and fear losing the seat permanently, raising concerns among grassroots workers.

Peermade: Anti-incumbency vs welfare narrative
In Peermade, the contest is sharply defined by the crisis in the plantation sector. The UDF’s Cyriac Thomas, contesting for the third time, is hoping to convert previous near-misses into a victory by tapping into worker dissatisfaction over unpaid wages and benefits.

The LDF, represented by CPI district secretary K Salimkumar, is countering this narrative by highlighting welfare measures and government interventions. The NDA has fielded BJP District General Secretary Ratheesh Varakkumala.

The LDF is backed by its welfare initiatives and organisational strength in the constituency. Local factors, candidate appeal, and turnout are likely to play a decisive role.

Thodupuzha: End of Joseph era
For the first time in over five decades, PJ Joseph is not contesting, marking the end of an era in Thodupuzha. His son, Apu John Joseph, now carries the weight of the legacy.

While the UDF hopes to retain this traditional stronghold, the LDF’s Cyriac Chazhikadan is mounting a serious challenge, aiming to capitalise on the uncertainties that accompany leadership transitions.

The presence of a Twenty20-backed NDA candidate, Roy A Varikkad, adds a new dimension to the contest. In 2016 he had contested as the LDF independent. Though unlikely to win, such a candidate could influence margins by cutting into votes, particularly in areas with organisational overlap.