Onmanorama pollmeter tracks 12 closely-fought constituencies across different phases of campaign: Nemom, Manjeshwar, Palakkad, Kunnathunad, Pala, Kottarakkara, Peravoor, Thripunithura, Ambalappuzha, Taliparamba, Payyanur and Nattika. This is the final part on Peravoor, where Onmanorama captures emerging trends from ground-level feed. Click to read the first and second parts here.

Kannur: An intense electoral battle has unfolded in Peravoor. The contest between UDF's Sunny Joseph and former Health Minister K K Shailaja was always expected to be a close fight. The voters feel that multiple factors are at play.

“Peravoor is a constituency with a strong presence of minority communities. It is difficult to believe they will vote against Sunny Joseph this time, as he may become a minister if the UDF comes to power. Last time, his majority decreased because the opposing candidate was from a minority community. This time, Shailaja teacher may not get that advantage. However, the ‘K Sudhakaran factor’ and the strong presence of the NDA candidate are challenges for Sunny Joseph,” said Biju, who runs Nirmala Hotel in Iritty town.

He said that the anti-LDF trend seen in local body elections prevails in rural areas. "It may be difficult for Shailaja to change this trend. There is also a perception that if the UDF comes to power, Sunny Joseph, as KPCC president, will play a key role in the government, which could help him retain the seat," Biju added.

However, not everyone in the constituency agrees. Mridula, a housewife from Madathol said, “Sunny Joseph is a strong opponent. But this time, teacher will win. His victory margin has been decreasing over the years, and it will reduce further.”

Rajeevan, who runs Thampuran Lottery Agency in Iritty, shared a similar view. “Victory is important for both. Shylaja needs to overcome the setback of the Vadakara Lok Sabha segment, while for Sunny, it is prestigious as KPCC president. I feel Shailaja will win, as there is no anti-incumbency against the LDF government. I expect a 5,000-vote majority,” he said.

When the UDF is working to retain its traditional strongholds and consolidate minority votes, Shailaja seems to highlight anti-incumbency against the MLA and issues like man-animal conflict to gain support in rural and forest-border areas.

Speaking to Onmanorama during a campaign, Shailaja said she is confident of victory. “Voters will compare development in other LDF-held constituencies in Kannur with Peravoor. People in forest-fringe areas are unhappy over the MLA’s lack of intervention in man-animal conflict issues,” she said.

The mood in Sunny Joseph's camp is optimistic. Jubile Chacko, one of Sunny Joseph’s campaign managers, said their assessment shows a comfortable win. “In all five panchayats ruled by the UDF, there is no major change expected. We also have an upper hand in the Iritty municipality. The victory margin will be comfortable,” he said.

There were concerns about the K Sudhakaran faction, especially in Ayyankunnu, being inactive. However, Jubilee said the issues have been resolved following Sunny Joseph's recent meeting with Sudhakaran. He has joined campaign programmes, including one at Karikkottakkari.

Binu, a resident of Ayyankunnu, said minority vote consolidation will favour Sunny Joseph. “My panchayat is a UDF stronghold. The LDF has not made inroads here. It will be difficult for Shailaja. But if the NDA increases its vote share, it could affect Sunny’s chances,” he said. Kavitha, a tax practitioner from Iritty, said, “I come from a BJP family, but I still feel Sunny Joseph has the upper hand. It is not easy for the LDF to win here, as minority votes are still with the UDF.”

Priyanka Gandhi's visit to Iritty has also boosted the UDF campaign. At the same time, the NDA is more aggressive this time, especially in Kottiyur. Even a small increase in its vote share could affect the UDF, as the area is a traditional Congress stronghold. Some also point out that the NDA candidate is not contesting under the Lotus symbol, which may reduce the NDA's vote share.

With multiple factors like anti-incumbency, factional issues, and the NDA’s growing presence, the Peravoor contest remains unpredictable. The margin is narrow, and even small shifts in votes could decide the outcome.
Click to read the first and second parts here.