Onmanorama pollmeter tracks 12 closely-fought constituencies across different phases of campaign: Nemom, Manjeshwar, Palakkad, Kunnathunad, Pala, Kottarakkara, Peravoor, Thripunithura, Ambalappuzha, Taliparamba, Payyanur and Nattika. This is the final part on Payyannur, where Onmanorama captures emerging trends from ground-level feed. Read the first and second parts here.

Kannur: CPM whistleblower V Kunhikrishnan has managed something few thought possible in Payyannur: he has dented the party from within. Campaigning on the sharp plank that a “tainted person” should not represent this communist heartland, he has clearly cut into the CPM’s vote base and forced an uncomfortable conversation the party would rather have avoided.

Yet, the numbers still tilt towards the official candidate. T I Madhusoodanan is likely to weather the storm and retain Payyannur, though with a reduced vote share and a narrower margin compared to his 2021 high of 62.49%, the highest for any candidate in the state.

But since the win, Kunhikrishnan, once CPM's former district committee member and widely seen as an upright grassroots leader, has pursued the MLA and his close associates, accusing them of misappropriating funds raised for slain worker C V Dhanraj’s family, for Payyannur Area Committee office, AKG Mandiram, and for Madhusoodanan's 2021 election. The leadership denied the charges, forcing Kunhikrishnan to go public and write a book with inside details of the allegations. The CPM doubled down by expelling him from the party and fielding Madhusoodanan again in Payyannur. Kunhikrishnan, too, entered the fray with the one-point agenda to stop the MLA from winning again.

His campaign gathered pace in stages. What began as a lone fight acquired political backing when the Congress-led UDF threw its weight behind him. In a few days, he built a following on social media through pointed videos and document-based claims. In the final stretch, he released the party's internal records to prove his allegation of misappropriation of the Dhanraj fund. Of the ₹40 lakh raised, ₹15 lakh ended in the Area Committee's bank account in three tranches and was withdrawn in cash. The CPM countered that withdrawals were shaped by demonetisation-era restrictions.

He followed this with fresh documents on April 6, linking Madhusoodanan to alleged irregularities in funds for the AKG Mandiram, inaugurated by Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan in 2017.

Questions over incomplete accounts, delayed disclosures, and missing contributions of ₹70.5 lakh from cooperative employees, along with a letter from the MLA's aide T Vishwanathan claiming that account books were “irrecoverably lost”, gave his campaign a sharper edge.

He also accused the party of intimidating his supporters and making fake voter IDs to cast bogus votes.

The CPM, however, chose not to engage point-by-point. When Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan campaigned in Payyannur, he invoked legacy over allegation, framing the contest as one between the Left’s historic fortress and its challengers. The message was clear: heritage over hearsay.

“We all know Payyannur. This is the land of brave martyrs. Not for nothing, this is known as the strongest left fortress in Kerala. There is not a dog's chance for anyone else in this land,” he said, amid loud applause.

On the ground, the party machinery kicked in full swing, especially after the UDF began backing Kunhikrishnan in earnest. Cadres fanned out across panchayats, targeting known pockets of dissent and quietly working to contain damage.

“We have identified the people within the party backing Kunhikrishnan. They are in Ramanthali, his village, Vellur, Kandoth and Kara. We called on them multiple times, and discouraged them from voting for Kunhikrishnan,” said a CPM leader in Madhusoodanan’s team.

The party is hoping that Kunhikrishnan’s narrative that Madhusoodhan is a tainted leader has not reached panchayats beyond Kandoth, in the eastern hills of Cherupuzha, Eramam-Kuttur, Kankole-Alapadamba, Karivellur-Peralam, and Peringome-Vayakkara. These are strongholds of the party.

The party is also running a sly campaign that Kunhikrishnan, by his own admission in the affidavit, has assets worth ₹7 crore, while Madhusoodanan has only ₹1 crore.

The CPM has also reached out to the AP faction of Samastha, and members of the EK Faction who are not aligned to the Muslim League, and also to the SDPI. "These votes will help us sail past comfortably," said the leader. In the last three days, the CPM took out massive rallies to show its strength in Payyannur, first by its women's wing, then by the DYFI, and on Tuesday, by the party as a whole.

Kunhikrishnan, helped by the UDF, ran a people-facing campaign, meeting voters at weddings, places of worship, and cooperative units and factories. His support, however, is largely silent. As one of his strategists put it: "We are engaged in guerrilla warfare”.

Yet, Kunhikrishnan may not have the numbers to stop Madhusoodanan in Payyannur, where the CPM is a different beast. But the whistleblower has turned a routine election into a referendum on accountability. A dip in vote share is enough to count as a fight well fought, even if the fortress still stands.
Read the first and second parts here.