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The growth rate for the third quarter of India's 2022/23 financial year was below a Reuters forecast of 4.6%.
Real GDP growth is expected at 6.5 per cent and the government expects to borrow a record Rs 15.4 lakh crore to bridge the revenue gap.
Though the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has sounded of a global economic slowdown, we remain cautiously optimistic about the Indian economy and the GDP to maintain reasonable growth momentum. India could see growth between 6.5 and 7.1 per cent during FY2022–23 and 5.5–6.1 per cent in the following year.
In the last full budget before a 2024 general election, Prime Minister Narendra Modi's government is expected to focus on lowering the fiscal deficit rather than extra spending.
The fiscal health of the states has improved from a sharp pandemic-induced deterioration in 2020-21 on the back of a broad-based economic recovery and resulting high revenue collections.
February's will be the last full budget before the general elections due in the summer of 2024.
The RBI bulletin had projected that GDP growth would be estimated at 6.1 to 6.3 per cent in the September quarter of the current fiscal.
It is reflecting a weaker-than-expected outturn in the second quarter and more subdued external demand.
The government is expecting the economy to grow at 7-7.5 per cent in 2022-23.
Based on data for the year 2020-21, an RBI-supervised study 'State Finances: A Risk Analysis' has ranked Kerala among the top five most indebted states in India.