Palakkad: Heavy rains, usually associated with the peak monsoon season, continue to lash the state in what can be seen as a significant change in weather patterns.
The retreating monsoon winds which typically move from west to east have been blowing in the opposite direction lately. While the climatic experts and scientists fail to give a satisfactory explanation for the phenomenon, the primary assessment is that a strong cyclonic circulation over the Southeast Bay of Bengal is reason for the same, i.e., the winds are changing direction under the influence of a low-pressure belt formed between Chennai and Sri Lanka.
While discussions focus on the warming sea, the rising global temperature, the substantial gradual changes in the atmosphere, and the fragility of the Western Ghats over the years, scientists reiterate the need to keep an extreme vigil amid changing weather patterns.
Weather agencies had no prior hints about the cloudburst at Kudayatoor in Idukki and failed to issue a warning. The heavy rains in the wee hours led to a landslip in which a family got buried under. The same situation has happened in many regions of Pathanamthitta. The experts term the downpours as "totally unexpected”.
Meteorologists have failed to predict cloudbursts, and such unexpected extreme precipitation is likely occur anywhere in the state till December. Heavy rains are likely at many places across the state in the next three days as hinted by the forecast of Indian Meteorological Department and other climatic agencies.
As per the warnings, the Central part of the state will be the most affected. The satellite images indicate the large-scale formation of dark clouds over places like Muvattupuzha, Haripad, hilly regions of Kottayam, southern parts of Thrissur, Palakkad-Thrissur border areas, Pathanamthitta, Nilambur, Lakkidi in Wayanad, and eastern hilly areas in Thiruvananthapuram. Though the assessment is that the northern parts won’t be much affected, people staying at Kozhikode-Wayanad and Kasaragod-Karnataka border should be alert. The changing weather patterns call for maintaining a vigil throughout midnight and early hours, even if it means putting off your sleep.
“While the volume of heavy rains that inundated Kochi city on Tuesday morning is yet to be ascertained, the 10-cm rainfall in just five hours, starting from 5.19 am, recorded in the CUSAT region, gives a clear indication of the rain intensity,” says Dr MG Manoj, Scientist at the CUSAT Advanced Centre for Atmospheric Radar Research.
“Out of this, 7 cm of rainfall was received from 8 am to 9.30 am.”
According to Dr Manoj, the current situation requires families in areas receiving climatic warnings to form a grouping for crisis communication and weather updates. Much of the heavy rains and landslides happen during the wee hours between 2 am and 4 am when the families are fast asleep.
The limited range of radars implies that clouds forming over many hilly regions go undetected. Currently, radars are located only at Thiruvananthapuram and Kochi, while there is none in the northern parts of the state. Though the Centre decided to set up radars at Kannur airport and Mangaluru regions, the projects are yet to be implemented. The change in weather patterns is such that small areas could be inundated at any time. Usually, this season witnesses moderate rains, but we are presently experiencing intense rainfall, similar to the monsoon showers, but in a more threatening manner. The heavy rains which lashed Kochi city the other day could not be detected in any weather prediction models.
Rough conditions persist in the Arabian sea, with strong winds and lightning. The depression is such that boats could not proceed further than one km from the coast. Hence, weather experts doubt the formation of a low-pressure belt, which may result in yet another spell of incessant rains across the state.
