Alappuzha: With the major parties fielding heavy-weight candidates, the Alappuzha Lok Sabha Constituency is in the national spotlight in the ensuing Lok Sabha elections as the campaigns are expected to raise the heat, dust, and political manoeuvring.
The only sitting seat of the Left Democratic Front (LDF) out of the 20 parliamentary constituencies in the state has drawn national focus because of Congress organisational general secretary K C Venugopal's sudden decision to throw his hat into the ring despite him being an MP in the Rajya Sabha from Rajasthan till 2026.
Venugopal, Rahul Gandhi's trusted aide, was initially reluctant to contest, as was the case last time. However, the Congress strategy of putting up a spirited fight in the state to retain the sitting seats and regain Alappuzha, the only seat lost last time, drew him to the battlefield in the absence of any other viable candidate for the party, sources said.
The scene has now heated up, with the BJP fielding the fiery Shobha Surendran from the seat while the CPM has opted for continuity, fielding its sitting MP A M Ariff.
Last time, Ariff defeated Shanimol Usman of the Congress by a relatively slender margin (10,485 votes), tiding over the Rahul Gandhi wave that swept the state in 2019. However, the key to Ariff’s victory was the 1,87,729 votes (17.24 per cent of the total votes polled) garnered by BJP’s Dr K S Radhakrishnan.
In the 2014 elections, when Venugopal defeated C B Chandrababu of the LDF by a margin of 19,407 votes, NDA candidate A V Thamarakshan received only 43,051 votes (4.3 per cent of the total votes polled). In the 2009 elections, when Venugopal won with a majority of 57,635 votes, defeating CPM’s Dr K S Manoj, the votes polled by Sony J Kalyan Kumar of BJP was 19,711.
The gradual growth and impact of the BJP on the election outcome are keenly debated in Alappuzha this time. With a high-power campaign of ‘Modi’s Guarantee’ and 'Modi’s return to power', it’s hotly debated how the candidature of a heavyweight like Sobha Surendran would influence the elections. Not many expect her to win the elections, but she is powerful enough to upset Venugopal’s apple cart, it is being felt.
Though it is too early to predict the outcome of the elections here, the Christian votes are likely to favour Venugopal, while Ariff will have a substantial stake in the Muslim votes. The Hindu votes may get split among the three candidates.
If a 'Modi wave' allows Sobha Surendran to secure more Hindu votes and garner some Christian votes under the influence of some new faces from the community in the BJP, Venugopal will have a tough time. The BJP national leadership is keen to defeat Venugopal, who is considered the right hand of Rahul Gandhi, and hence is sure to spend considerable time, energy, and resources here to deal a deadly blow to the national party.
However, the talks of an uneasy equation Sobha Surendran having with BJP leaders like K Surendran and V Muraleedharan and its bearing on the election campaign and her ability to consolidate votes in her favour are also being keenly watched.
Congress circles see Venugopal as the best candidate for the party, as he alone can move the organisational machinery in the district and set a tempo to garner votes. Last time, the organisational machinery was almost in limbo in several parts, which led to the defeat of Shanimol Usman, they admit. Moreover, Venugopal’s exalted national stature and his return to Alappuzha for the first time after the elevation give him extra weight.
However, his decision to contest even with two more years left for him to complete the Rajya Sabha term has already become a talking point in the constituency. Left circles point out that in the event of his winning from Alappuzha, he will have to quit the RS seat and the BJP is in a position in the Rajasthan Assembly to comfortably win that seat. Moreover, the BJP is now four short of a Rajya Sabha majority. They charge that being one of the captains of the INDIA front, it is not the “right politics” for Venugopal and Congress to make such a move that defeats the secular politics and helps the BJP in effect. This campaign is sure to intensify in the coming days.
Also, the proponents of the old Ko-Li-Bi (Congress-League-BJP alliance) theory are actively articulating it again this time to claim that there are underhand dealings in this election.
Meanwhile, the CPM is facing internal feud in certain parts, though the party says it has addressed these issues. So estranged party strongman G Sudhakaran is unlikely to play a spoilsport this time.
