If there is one factor that could guarantee the Pinarayi Vijayan-led LDF a smooth path to its third term in 2026, it is not the highways that it is constructing or the fibre optic network that it has laid or the Life mission houses that it had built in  Kerala. It is the lack of imagination of the Congress-led UDF.

It is the ninth anniversary of Pinarayi's rule and the Congress has still not come up with its vision for the state. Perhaps to mask this failure, the party keeps regurgitating its stock anti-government allegations, some of which, like the non-payment of social welfare pensions, have lost their value. Not only are social welfare pensions (₹1,600 a month for 62 lakh beneficiaries) being paid on time but the dues are also being cleared in a time-bound manner.

TP’s death and CPM win
"We in the Congress accuse the CPM of playing violent, unscrupulous politics, a charge they deserve. But in 2015, when it used the solar scam to pull Kerala politics down to a new low, the CPM had also conducted a major brainstorming session (International Congress on Kerala Studies) involving the public and subject experts, and firmed up policies for major sectors like health, education, agriculture and housing. Life and Aardram missions came out of it. And for public infrastructure, the KIIFB was mooted. Therefore, it was easy for the voters to trust them when they said 'LDF will come and everything will be fine'," a prominent young Congress leader said.

"So even in a party driven by primitive, violent instincts, there is space for visionary thinking. This future goal-setting was the reason, I think, they won in 2016 even after what looked like the unpardonable killing of T P Chandrasekharan. Congress should learn from the CPM's strengths," the Congress leader said.

The CPM has already challenged the Congress to show its hand. Finance Minister K N Balagopal and his predecessor, Thomas Isaac, have asked the Congress to come up with an alternative for the KIIFB (Kerala Infrastructure Investment Fund Board) if the party is against it. There is radio silence on the UDF side.

Is it enough to ‘body shame’ Pinarayi?
Sreekumar Pacha, a researcher who had done two PhD theses on Kerala politics, termed Congress's brand of opposition activity as "body shaming".

"They just keep finding fault with the government, particularly the CM. Some of the charges like the CMRL deal with the CM's daughter has stuck but not others. So playing the same charge on a loop without additional evidence – like accusing the CM of BJP links or blaming the government for the fiscal crisis -- can lead to what is called allegation fatigue in the voter, and might even seem like body shaming. A government seen as a victim is not a good sign for the Opposition," Pacha said.

The Congress strategy should be fact-based. There are official figures showing that the state's own tax revenues had grown by a commendable 36% by the end of the 2024-25 fiscal and the Congress, as if hopelessly cut off from the world, persists with the charge of fiscal mismanagement. "Kerala is going through its worst ever fiscal crisis in history," Opposition leader V D Satheesan said on Tuesday, the ninth anniversary of the LDF government.

"During an election year, the Congress should realise that its allegations must adhere to facts or else the opponent can quickly issue a counter that can crush its credibility," Pacha said.

Lesson from Gujarat
Ninan Jacob, a Gulf-based teacher who studied political science in China's Tsinghua University, said that the Congress should be circumspect about claiming credit for development achievements under Pinarayi.

"In politics, there is something called the 'ruler's share'. Even if a project or a scheme that began under some other party was completed under the rule of another party, the voter tends to equate the project with the incumbent," Jacob said. He gave the example of the Sardar Sarovar Dam in Gujarat.

The work began in 1961 under a Congress government but when it was inaugurated in 2017, the BJP was in power. "Now the dam is associated with the BJP and, of course, Narendra Modi, even though he was PM by the time he inaugurated the dam in 2017. So, trying to take credit for the Vizhinjam project would be a wasteful exercise. At the most, the Congress can project the morally repugnant move of the Pinarayi dispensation to deny Oommen Chandy his due in the realisation of the Vizhinjam port, but wanting to appropriate all the credit for Chandy can backfire," Jacob said.

Signs of complacency
Three senior Congress leaders, Onmanorama talked to, said that the anti-government sentiment was strong enough to ensure a UDF victory in 2026.

"Just take the CPM's claim of ensuring gender justice. The manner in which the CPM has spurned the ASHA agitation is enough to expose their double standards. Or just see how Pinarayi's police treated the SC woman (Bindu) who was falsely accused of stealing a gold necklace," a leader said.

Another leader said that the Congress had never laid out a comprehensive vision except for the "hastily stitched up election manifesto we come up in the midst of the election campaign". "Unlike the CPM, we improvise on the job. A K Antony did not come to power saying he will build roads but it was under him that Kerala's road development began in right earnest. Oommen Chandy did not promise the Kochi Metro but it was he who realised it," the leader said.

But when Pinarayi Vijayan has so much to showcase -- from highways and internet services to high-tech schools and houses for the poor -- the UDF just cannot keep jeering at him. It also has to show something for itself.