Ever since 2007 when the Communist leaders picked up Xi Jinping as a potential leader not only for his pedigree and record of service, but also for his lackluster personality, his rise has been meteoric.
Born into a family of red aristocracy, he could have remained in the corridors of power in Beijing, but he followed the dictum that the educated youth should get reeducated by the poor and he moved to a province as a young aide to a General Officer Commanding dealing with anti-corruption measures.
By 2012, he was President and by 2017, during his second tenure as President, his 'Thought on Socialism with Chinese Characteristics for a New Era' got accepted as the manifesto of the Party, making him the next helmsman after Mao.
He was also designated as a Core Leader, taking charge of the Party, Government, civilian life, the military and the academic world.
When the National People’s Congress amended the constitution to remove the term limit for President, it was obvious that it was specifically for Xi, who had become the strongman of China.
He consolidated his position step by step, particularly by applying brakes on economic liberalization of the country. He applied restraints on gigantic companies and the newly rich corporate heads with the slogan “Socialism and Common Prosperity for all.”
Vision 2035
Although there were rumours of a coup immediately after his first visit abroad after the pandemic, he was the very picture of self-confidence when he inaugurated the 20th Party Congress on October 16, 2022.
He had no doubt that he would continue as head of all the top bodies in China for five years more, if not longer.
Even before the Congress approved his third term, he laid out his decade-long vision for China.
He recounted the challenges he faced nationally and internationally and how he dealt with them successfully.
As for the future, his vision for 2035 was “to significantly increase economic strength, scientific and technological capabilities and comprehensive national strength.”
China would join the most innovative countries with great self-reliance and strength in science and technology, strengthen national security and achieve basic modernization of the armed forces.
Taiwan policy
He spelt out his Taiwan policy because of recent events like the US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit and China’s stern actions in response.
He said that China would never promise to renounce the use of force, which was directed solely at interference by external forces, although Beijing would continue its efforts for peaceful reunification of Taiwan.
He said that resolving the Taiwan question and realizing China’s complete reunification is, for the Party, a historic mission and an unshakeable commitment.
The wheels of history are rolling on towards China’s reunification and the rejuvenation of the Chinese nation, he said.
Neighbourhood ties
On China’s relations with neighbors, Xi said that he would seek enhanced friendly ties, mutual interest and converging interests.
“We will enhance the military strategic capabilities for defending Chinese sovereignty, security and development interests,” he said. Considering that China is being accused of expansionism in the neighborhood, including India, Xi was cautious about dealing with the subject, but he made it clear that it would enhance the military strategic capabilities for defending itself against any aggression.
Gloomy global outlook
Xi’s assessment of the global situation was more pessimistic than in 2017. He said that the world was in a flux and listed backlash against globalization, unilateralism and mounting protectionism as negative trends.
China would oppose the forming of blocs and exclusive groups that leave out particular countries.
This was obviously a reference to the Quad, consisting of the US, Australia, Japan and India, but there was no mention of the Indo-Pacific, where China’s penetration is sought to be countered by the Quad.
Unease in Sino-India relations
India did not figure in Xi’s speech, but his aggressive posture against India came to light when a video clipping of the conflict between China and India in Galwan Valley was shown at the Congress.
A PLA Commander, Qui Fabao, was shown with his arms outstretched facing Indian soldiers in Galwan, where there were casualties on both sides.
Moreover, Qui Bao himself was present at the Congress as a Chinese hero.
If China is sincere about friendly ties with its neighbours, such an episode should have been avoided.
Even though disengagement has taken place in some sectors in Ladakh, tension prevails in Damchuk and Depsang.
The fact that no meeting took place between Xi and Modi at the Shanghai Cooperation Organization meeting in Samarkand was a clear indication of the continuing tension between India and China.
The question whether the emergence of Xi as the helmsman in China augurs well for India is not clear.
Though Xi and Modi spent considerable time among themselves in the informal summits in Wuhan and Mahabalipuram, the Chinese aggression in Ladakh showed that those conversations made no impact on Chinese policy towards India.
In fact, China violated all the principles of cooperation agreed between the two countries under Xi’s watch and there is no desire on China’s part to make amends.
Xi’s continuation for another decade is not a good omen for India.
Of course, much will depend on the outcome of the Russia-Ukraine war, the consequent geopolitical changes and the Russia-China partnership.
A power struggle in China is still possible as Xi has manipulated his way to be the helmsman for life. His vision may be adopted by the Chinese Communist Party, but it is not at all clear that there will be no revolt against Xi in the coming years.
