LS POLLS

Analysis | No show for lotus, Jaya-less AIADMK faces reckoning

As expected, the 2024 Lok Sabha elections in Tamil Nadu did not present any major surprises. The primary focus of the polls, as far as Tamil Nadu was concerned, was on who would finish in second place. Although several exit polls predicted that the NDA would win three to five seats in Tamil Nadu, the alliance did not secure a single seat. The INDIA bloc, of which the DMK is a part, achieved a spectacular victory, winning all 39 seats in TN. The party also won Puducherry. Observers consider this an ideological victory for the DMK, which has consistently opposed the BJP in the state. Evidently, the AIADMK has struggled to recover from the blow dealt by Jayalalithaa's death, rendering it a weak Opposition.

The BJP focused on consolidating its political perception, building a narrative that it would significantly increase its vote share and potentially win about five seats. In contrast, the AIADMK struggled to organize itself. This was the first major election the AIADMK faced without an alliance with the BJP since Jayalalithaa died in 2016. Ironically, in her last election, Jayalalithaa had unequivocally declared that her party would not align with the BJP and urged voters to choose between "Modi and the lady."

After Jayalalithaa's death, the AIADMK entered a phase of chaos and chose to align with the BJP, perhaps hoping to remain relevant without their towering leader. But AIADMK general secretary and former Chief Minister Edappadi Palanisamy soon realized the importance of establishing himself as the undisputed leader of the AIADMK. Months before the election, the party announced its separation from the BJP alliance, citing the saffron party's state president K Annamalai’s disparaging remarks about Jayalalithaa and former Chief Minister Annadurai. Since then, the AIADMK and the BJP have been at odds, with Annamalai going so far as to say that the AIADMK will "disappear after June 4".

Ironically, Annamalai, who claimed he would win the Coimbatore seat, finished second to DMK’s Ganapathy Rajkumar. While the BJP secured second place in some areas, including Chennai South and Kanyakumari, this outcome can be attributed to the party fielding key and well-known candidates in several constituencies to raise its profile.

For example, the party fielded Tamilisai Soundarrajan, former Telangana governor and former president of the BJP in Tamil Nadu, against DMK’s Thamizhachi Thangapandiyan in the South Chennai constituency. Pon Radhakrishnan contested against the incumbent Congress MP Vijay Vasanth in Kanyakumari. Radhakrishnan is no stranger to the constituency, having won there more than once.

Adding to the irony, AIADMK dissident leaders like TTV Dinakaran, known as an electoral strategist for Jayalalithaa, and O Panneerselvam, handpicked by Jayalalithaa to replace her as Chief Minister after her corruption conviction, faced defeat in alliance with the BJP. TTV Dinakaran lost to his one-time protégé Thanga Thamizhselvan in Theni by a margin of over two lakh votes.  Even PMK’s Sowmya Anbumani, who contested from the Dharmapuri constituency in alliance with the BJP, lost after leading for several rounds.

The results have made it clear that the BJP is yet to secure the foothold in Tamil Nadu that it desperately seeks. The party’s attempts to build a narrative of significant gains in the state have remained just that — a narrative that does not reflect the ground reality. The result will cast a shadow over the leadership of Annamalai in TN. Annamalai, who quit as an IPS officer in Karnataka to join the BJP and eventually became its state president, has been embroiled in one controversy after another, which observers feel is a ‘tactic to stay relevant'. “It is evident that his strategy has not paid off – the party could neither secure the 25 per cent vote share he claimed in the state nor win any seat, including his own.”

AIADMK may need to embark on a journey of rediscovery to reclaim its prominence in Tamil Nadu politics. Despite finishing second in several constituencies, the party appears vulnerable and failed to secure victories even in its traditional strongholds. With the state Assembly elections just two years away, observers believe the AIADMK will lose its relevance if it doesn't get its act together now. While the DMK’s sweeping dominance clearly establishes the electorate’s support for its ideological stance, it also underscores the AIADMK’s need to regroup. Whether the AIADMK will do so by easing its differences with dissident leaders and implementing organizational changes remains to be seen. When the AIADMK found itself at similar crossroads after the demise of MGR in 1987, it took about two years and an election for the party to consolidate itself again. This election could present a similar opportunity. Meanwhile, rumours suggest that the BJP might try to align itself with the AIADMK for the 2026 Assembly elections after moving Annamalai to a central role. But whether that will help AIADMK in the long run is anybody’s guess.